美国国家公共电台 NPR 33名士兵在叙利亚袭击中丧生 土耳其威胁放难民入欧洲（在线收听）

Yesterday was the deadliest day for the Turkish military since it first entered the Syrian conflict in 2016. Thirty-three Turkish soldiers died fighting Syrian forces, forces backed by Russia. Now, this is awkward because Russia and Turkey have enjoyed good relations of late. Now Turkey is trying to figure out how to respond to Russia. It is seeking help from NATO, and it is not at all clear where things go from here. Asli Aydintasbas is a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She is a longtime Turkish journalist, and she is on the phone now from Istanbul.

Hey there.

ASLI AYDINTASBAS: Hi; good to be here.

KELLY: Glad to have you with us — let's start with where things stand at the moment. I know the presidents of Turkey and Russia spoke today by phone. Do we know how that went? Do we know where relations stand between Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and Vladimir Putin?

AYDINTASBAS: We don't know what the conversation was like, but the two have been very careful not to blame each other directly. In fact, I think Turkish officials are avoiding saying this was a strike by Russian air force or by Russian forces. They are putting the blame on the Syrian military, I think, in order to leave sort of room for compromise or for negotiations.

KELLY: Right.

AYDINTASBAS: But my sense, from the silence on the Turkish side tonight after the phone conversation, is that the two leaders are not there yet.

KELLY: I want to ask you, what is the U.S. role here? Turkish President Erdogan also spoke with President Trump by phone today.

AYDINTASBAS: So Erdogan has been desperately trying to enlist Western support in his quest to hold on to Idlib, this last rebel-held enclave in Syria. The problem is, in many ways, he's alienated many of his European partners and NATO partners, certainly.

He has a great relationship with President Trump, but the ask — the Turkish ask is almost too big in the sense that Turkey would like NATO and/or U.S. to be militarily involved, providing some type of a safe zone in Idlib and engaging in some sort of a combative position vis-a-vis Moscow.

KELLY: Right, and I want to stay there with the other player in this very complicated web — NATO. The secretary general of NATO put out a statement today saying the alliance supports Turkey, will continue to support Turkey. Turkey, of course, is a NATO member. But I gather Turkey was hoping for a lot more from NATO.

AYDINTASBAS: Turkey has called an emergency meeting at NATO, and they want to invoke Article V, the famous article from the NATO chapter, which says an attack on any one of the member states is an attack on all.

KELLY: Collective defense.

AYDINTASBAS: Collective defense — but in this case, this attack is taking place in Syria, so there is a bit of a gray area there.

KELLY: We're talking in big strategic terms about alliances. I don't want to lose sight of the fact that there are many, many real people involved; refugees, Syrian refugees now on both sides of the Turkey-Syria border. The ones who are inside Turkey, Turkey is now suggesting it may not stop from traveling to the rest of Europe. I am seeing pictures of people trying to make their way to Turkey's borders with Greece, for example. What is the implicit threat here from Turkey?

AYDINTASBAS: It is a move to pressure Europe. Turkey is trying to get Europe to support its position in Syria. And I think the one card it's holding is the fact that Turkey is hosting 3.7 million Syrians and also some people from Afghanistan on top of that. It's a risky gamble because this is not going to go down that well in the European public opinion and certainly with the EU.

But I think, already, we're seeing some refugees that are being taken by buses to the border area — a Greek or a Bulgarian border. And this is not something that applies to people from Idlib. They're on the other side. The border is closed, and they're trapped and camping out in winter conditions and really desperate. Nine-hundred thousand people have been displaced over the past two months. This makes it just about the worst page in a terrible book.

KELLY: Another horrific chapter in what has, as you say, been a very long and horrific war. That is Asli Aydintasbas, Turkish journalist, senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, giving us a view from Istanbul.

Thank you.

AYDINTASBAS: Thank you.

昨天是土耳其军队自2016年介入叙利亚冲突以来死亡人数最多的一天。33名土耳其士兵在与俄罗斯支持的叙利亚部队作战时死亡。这是相当棘手的局面，因为俄罗斯和土耳其近来关系不错。现在土耳其正试图确定如何回应俄罗斯。该国正在寻找北约组织的帮助，目前完全不清楚事态会如何发展。艾斯莉·艾丁塔斯巴斯是欧洲对外关系委员会的高级研究员。她也做了很长时间的土耳其记者，现在她将从伊斯坦布尔和我们电话连线。

你好。

艾斯莉·艾丁塔斯巴斯：你好。

凯利：很高兴邀请到你，我们先来谈谈目前的局势。我知道土耳其总统与俄罗斯总统今天通了电话。我们知道情况如何吗？目前雷普普·塔伊普·埃尔多安和弗拉基米尔·普京的关系怎么样？

艾丁塔斯巴斯：我们不清楚通话情况，但两国元首一直非常谨慎，并未直接责怪对方。事实上，我认为土耳其官员正在避免“这是俄罗斯空军或俄罗斯军队发动的袭击”这种说法。我认为他们将责任归咎于叙利亚军方，目的是为妥协或谈判留出空间。

凯利：好。

艾丁塔斯巴斯：但在我看来，土耳其方面在今晚通话结束后保持沉默，这表明两国领导人还未达成一致。

凯利：我想问的是，美军在其中扮演什么角色？土耳其总统埃尔多安今天也与特朗普总统通了电话。

艾丁塔斯巴斯：埃尔多安一直在拼命争取西方的支持，以求守住伊利德卜这个叙利亚最后一块反对派控制的飞地。但问题是，他显然在许多方面都疏远了他的欧洲伙伴和北约伙伴。

他与特朗普总统关系很好，但土耳其的要求太高了，土耳其希望北约和/或美国在军事上介入，在伊利德卜提供某种形式的安全区，并对俄罗斯采取某种战斗立场。

凯利：好，我想谈谈这个极为复杂的网络中的另一个参与者——北约。北约秘书长今天发表声明表示，北约支持土耳其，而且将继续支持土耳其。当然，土耳其是北约成员国。但我认为土耳其希望北约提供更多协助。

艾丁塔斯巴斯：北约应土耳其要求召开紧急会议，他们希望启动北约宪章中著名的第五条款，即一个成员国遭受袭击应该被看作整个北约受到袭击。

凯利：集体防御。

艾丁塔斯巴斯：集体防御，但就目前的情况来说，这场袭击发生在叙利亚，那里有点像是灰色地带。

凯利：我们正在从重大战略方面谈论联盟。我不想忽略这样一个事实：有许多人牵涉其中；比如难民，目前在土耳其和叙利亚边界两侧的叙利亚难民。还有土耳其境内的叙利亚难民，土耳其表示，其可能不会再阻止这些难民前往欧洲其他地区。举例来说，我看到有照片显示，人们正试图前往土耳其与希腊的边境。土耳其发出的未言明威胁是什么？

艾丁塔斯巴斯：此举旨在向欧洲施压。土耳其正试图让欧洲支持其在叙利亚的立场。我认为土耳其掌握的其中一个筹码是，土耳其境内有370万名叙利亚难民以及部分阿富汗难民。这是一场冒险的赌博，因为这不会令欧洲舆论接受，当然也不会受到欧盟的欢迎。

但是，我们看到已经有一些难民被大巴送往希腊或保加利亚的边境地区。这并不适用于来自伊利德卜的人。他们在边界另一侧。而边境已经关闭，他们被困住，他们不得不在冬天露宿，他们非常绝望。过去两个月以来，已有超过90万人流离失所。这是一本糟糕的书中最糟糕的一页。

凯利：如你所说，另一个可怕的章节是一场漫长而且可怕的战争。以上是欧洲对外关系委员会的高级研究员艾斯莉·艾丁塔斯巴斯从伊斯坦布尔带来的报道。

谢谢你。

艾丁塔斯巴斯：谢谢。