美国国家公共电台 NPR 以色列举行一年内第三次大选 内塔尼亚胡暂时领先（在线收听）

The results of Israel's third national election in a year are coming in. Most of the votes have been counted, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is getting closer to a win. But can he put together the coalition that he needs to stay in office? He's failed twice so far, hence the three elections.

NPR's Daniel Estrin is on the line from Jerusalem. Hi, Daniel

DANIEL ESTRIN, BYLINE: Hi, Noel.

KING: So does it look at this point like Benjamin Netanyahu will win this election?

ESTRIN: He is in the lead, Noel. At least 90% of the votes have been counted so far. And so far, he has won a few more parliamentary seats than his main rival, Benny Gantz. But this does not mean he will be able to form a government. And that's the name of the game. First of all, they're still counting votes. By the way, that includes the votes cast at special quarantine polling stations for almost 6,000 Israelis in home quarantine who are there out of an abundance of caution in case they're carrying coronavirus. So there's a lot of vote-counting still to do, and those extra votes could tip the scales. But yes, right now, it looks like, with his right-wing allies, Netanyahu is just a couple seats short of 61 out of the 120 seats he'll need for a majority in parliament.

KING: He did speak publicly last night. What did he say?

ESTRIN: I think the takeaway from his speech last night was that Netanyahu is emboldened. Listen to the crowds he addressed.

(SOUNDBITE OF SPEECH)

PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU: (Speaking Hebrew).

UNIDENTIFIED PEOPLE: (Chanting in Hebrew).

ESTRIN: He thanked them, and they are chanting, "king of Israel." He called it an enormous victory for the right wing. He said, our opponents say the Netanyahu era is over — not true. He says he'll be the prime minister of all Israelis. And he also reiterated a campaign promise to annex lands in the occupied West Bank, which most countries would oppose. But he has President Trump's blessing to do that. And now the question is whether he'll be able to build a stable government to be able to carry out such a step.

KING: I mean, the really interesting wrinkle here is that this is a leader who has been indicted on charges of fraud and bribery. Why are so many people sticking with him?

ESTRIN: That's a great question. I mean, it's — we're talking about Israel's longest-serving prime minister. He has a very fired-up base, like you just heard. And when you speak to Netanyahu voters, they tell you, yes, we know that he's facing corruption allegations. But he excels in international diplomacy. He's got Trump and Putin on speed dial, as it were. He excels in Israel's security concerns, they say. And so a lot of voters told me they were going with their heart. They were going with their belly. They were sticking with Netanyahu.

KING: His main challenger is a man named Benny Gantz, who has sort of been a thorn in Netanyahu's side for a while now — right? — or at least his main rival. Let's say that Netanyahu wins. What — how does Israel's future look different than if Benny Gantz wins? Like, what policies is he going to focus on that will really be distinctive?

ESTRIN: It's the right question to ask because many people will say Netanyahu and Gantz don't differ that much in their ideologies. Although, I do think that there is a difference — first of all, what we talked about with possible annexation of land in the West Bank. Netanyahu says he would push forward on that; Gantz says he doesn't want to rush into that kind of controversial move.

And then a key thing to look at here is what happens in two weeks. Netanyahu is scheduled to appear in court to face his corruption charges. The Supreme Court will undoubtedly be asked to rule on the question of whether an indicted prime minister can form a new government. That would be an unprecedented thing in Israel. There's a lot of uncertainty here, and Netanyahu right now needs to focus on trying to lure people from the center-left to try to defect and go to his side. We'll see if that happens.

KING: NPR's Daniel Estrin in Jerusalem. Thanks, Daniel.

ESTRIN: Sure thing.

以色列举行了一年内的第三次全国大选，结果即将公布。目前大多数选票已经统计完毕，总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡距离胜利越来越近。但他能组建继续执政所需的联盟吗？他此前两次组阁失败，因此举行了第三次大选。

NPR新闻的丹尼尔·埃斯特林将从耶路撒冷和我们连线。你好，丹尼尔。

丹尼尔·埃斯特林连线：你好，诺埃尔。

金：目前来看本雅明·内塔尼亚胡会赢得这次选举吗？

埃斯特林：诺埃尔，他现在处于领先位置。截至目前，至少90%的选票已经统计完成。目前来看，他赢得的议会席位多于他的主要竞争对手本尼·甘茨。但这并不意味着他能组建政府。这是真正重要的问题。首先，目前选票统计工作仍在进行。顺便说一下，这包括在特殊隔离投票站进行的投票，近6000名居家隔离的以色列选民前往这些投票站投票，此举是出于高度警惕而采取的措施，以防这些人携带冠状病毒。因此，现在还有大量的计票工作要做，未统计票数可能会扭转局势。不过目前来说，内塔尼亚胡及其右翼盟友仅差几个席位就能达到61个席位，这是他要在120个议会席位中赢得多数所需的席位数。

金：他昨晚发表了公开讲话。他说了什么？

埃斯特林：我认为他昨晚的讲话想传达的关键信息是：内塔尼亚胡受到了鼓励。下面来听一下聆听他讲话的人群的反应。

（讲话音频）

本雅明·内塔尼亚胡总理：（用希伯来语讲话）。

身份不明的人：（用希伯来语高喊）。

埃斯特林：他向人们表达了他的感谢，人群则高呼“以色列之王”。他称这是右翼的巨大胜利。他说，我们的对手认为内塔尼亚胡的时代已经结束——这不是事实。他表示，他将成为所有以色列公民的总理。他还重申了一项选举承诺——吞并被占领的约旦河西岸的土地，而这是大多数国家都会反对的行为。但他得到了特朗普总统的许可。现在的问题是，他能否构建可以实施这一举措的稳定政府。

金：非常值得注意的一点是，这名领导人已被起诉欺诈和受贿等罪名。那为什么还有这么多人支持他？

埃斯特林：这个问题问得好。我们正在谈论的是以色列在位时间最长的总理。他拥有非常热情的选民基础，就像大家刚才听到的那样。如果和内塔尼亚胡的选民交谈，他们会告诉你，我们知道他面临着腐败指控。但他擅长国际外交。可以说，他使特朗普和普京出现在快速拨号设置中。他们认为他擅长处理以色列的安全问题。许多选民告诉我，他们是全心全意的，他们是按照心意投的票。他们支持内塔尼亚胡。

金：他的主要挑战者名为本尼·甘茨，可以说一段时间以来他一直是内塔尼亚胡的眼中钉，对吧？至少是他的主要竞争对手。假设内塔尼亚胡获胜。那以色列的未来会与本尼·甘茨获胜的情况有何不同？他将关注哪些与众不同的政策？

埃斯特林：这是关键问题，因为许多人会说内塔尼亚胡和甘茨在意识形态上没有太大不同。不过，我认为还是存在区别的，首先，我们刚才提到了可能吞并约旦河西岸土地的问题。内塔尼亚胡说他会推进这件事，但甘茨说他不想仓促采取这一备受争议的举措。

接下来要重点关注的是未来两周的局势。内塔尼亚胡计划出庭，直面腐败指控。毫无疑问，以色列最高法院要就遭起诉总理能否组建新政府做出裁决。这将成为以色列史无前例的事件。目前存在许多不确定性，内塔尼亚胡需要集中精力，试图吸引中左翼群体投诚，和他站在一起。我们要看看这是否会发生。

金：以上是NPR新闻的丹尼尔·埃斯特林从耶路撒冷带来的报道。谢谢你，丹尼尔。

埃斯特林：不客气。