2020年经济学人 病毒来袭--Covid-19恐成全球性流行病(2)（在线收听）

The World Health Organisation was this week full of praise for China’s approach. That does not, however, mean it is a model for the rest of the world. All quarantines carry a cost—not just in lost output, but also in the suffering of those locked away, some of whom forgo medical treatment for other conditions. It is still too soon to tell whether this price was worth the gains. As China seeks to revive its economy by relaxing the quarantine, it could well be hit by a second wave of infections. Given that uncertainty, few democracies would be willing to trample over individuals to the extent China has. And, as the chaotic epidemic in Iran shows, not all authoritarian governments are capable of it.

本周，世界卫生组织对中国的做法大加赞赏。然而，这并不意味着世界其它地区都要依样照搬。所有的隔离措施带来的代价不仅是产出损失，还包括隔离者的痛苦，其中一些人因为其他原因放弃了医疗。现在判断受益是否值得这些代价还为时过早。随着试图通过放松隔离措施来重振经济，很可能遭遇第二波传染。鉴于这种不确定性，很少有国家愿意大面积隔离。而且，正如伊朗混乱的疫情所展现出来的，并非所有的威权政府都能做到这一点。

Yet even if many countries could not, or should not, exactly copy China, its experience holds three important lessons—to talk to the public, to slow the transmission of the disease and to prepare health systems for a spike in demand.

然而，即使许多国家不能、也不应该完全照搬中国的做法，但中国的经验也有三个重要的教训——与公众对话、减缓疾病传播，并为卫生系统应对需求激增做好准备。

A good example of communication is America’s Centres for Disease Control, which issued a clear, unambiguous warning on February 25th. A bad one is Iran’s deputy health minister, who succumbed to the virus during a press conference designed to show that the government is on top of the epidemic.

通讯做得很好的一个例子是美国疾病控制中心，其在2月25日发布了一个明确无误的警告。一个不好的例子是伊朗卫生部副部长，他在一场新闻发布会后确诊感染该病毒，这场新闻发布会上的目的本来是展示政府定能战胜病毒。

Even well-meaning attempts to sugarcoat the truth are self-defeating, because they spread mistrust, rumours and, ultimately, fear. The signal that the disease must be stopped at any cost, or that it is too terrifying to talk about, frustrates efforts to prepare for the virus’s inevitable arrival. As governments dither, conspiracy theories coming out of Russia are already sowing doubt, perhaps to hinder and discredit the response of democracies.

即便是善意粉饰真相的企图也会弄巧成拙，因为粉饰会传播不信任、谣言，最终是恐惧。必须不惜一切代价阻止这种疾病的信号、或者是将病毒讲的骇人听闻，都会让为病毒不可避免的到来所做的准备受到打击。在各国政府犹豫不决之际，来自俄罗斯的阴谋论已经播下怀疑的种子，或许是为了阻碍和怀疑民主国家的反应。

The best time to inform people about the disease is before the epidemic. One message is that fatality is correlated with age. If you are over 80 or you have an underlying condition you are at high risk; if you are under 50 you are not. Now is the moment to persuade the future 80% of mild cases to stay at home and not rush to a hospital. People need to learn to wash their hands often and to avoid touching their face. Businesses need continuity plans, to let staff work from home and to ensure a stand-in can replace a vital employee who is ill or caring for a child or parent. The model is Singapore, which learned from SARS, another coronavirus, that clear, early communication limits panic.

让人们了解这种疾病的最佳时机是在流行之前。一条信息是，致命性与年龄有关。如果超过80岁，或者有潜在的疾病，那么就处于高风险中；如果低于50岁，那么就不是高风险。现在是说服未来80%的轻度病例呆在家里、不要急着去医院的时候了。要学会勤洗手，避免摸脸。企业需要连续性计划，让员工在家工作，并确保一个临时替代者能够代替生病或照顾孩子或父母的重要员工。模范例子是新加坡，新加坡从另一种冠状病毒SARS中吸取了教训，早期的清晰交流可以减少恐慌。