美国国家公共电台 NPR 沙特王储多名王室高级成员 提高石油产量报复俄罗斯（在线收听）

Saudi Arabia's crown prince spent the weekend throwing international oil markets into chaos and crushing dissent at home. The move raises alarm again about Mohammed bin Salman's leadership. NPR's international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam joins us now in the studio. Welcome, Jackie.

上周末，沙特阿拉伯王储将国际石油市场推向混乱，并在国内镇压异议。此举再次引发外界对穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼领导力的担忧。我们将NPR新闻的国际事务记者杰基·诺瑟姆请到了演播室。欢迎你，杰基。

JACKIE NORTHAM, BYLINE: Thank you, Audie.

杰基·诺瑟姆：谢谢，奥迪。

CORNISH: So there are credible reports that dozens of people, including Saudi royals, have been arrested over the past few days. What more have you learned?

柯尼什：有可靠报道称，过去几天，包括沙特王室成员在内的数十人被逮捕。你还了解到哪些消息？

NORTHAM: Yes, at least three senior Saudi princes were detained, and they're considered part of the inner circle of the royal family. And that includes a full brother to Saudi Arabia's King Salman. Military officers and government officials were also rounded up and detained by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and he is the day-to-day ruler of the kingdom and is a man, Audie, who brooks no dissent.

诺瑟姆：对，至少有三名沙特王子被拘留，他们被认为是沙特王室核心集团的成员。被捕者包括沙特国王萨勒曼的亲兄弟。军官和政府官员也遭到了王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼的围捕和拘留，他是沙特王国日常事务的统治者，奥迪，他也是一个不容许异见的人。

You'll recall the CIA determined that the crown prince had direct links to the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. We understand that some people have been released, but this is a very closed society. And it's really hard to get real-time information out of there.

你应该还记得，中央情报局（简称CIA）认定，沙特王储与沙特记者贾马尔·哈苏吉遇害有直接关系。我们了解到，一些被捕者已经获释，但这是一个非常封闭的社会。所以很难从那里获得实时信息。

CORNISH: What triggered this? Any sense of the reason behind the crackdown?

柯尼什：什么引发了这次逮捕行动？我们知不知道镇压背后的原因？

NORTHAM: I reached out to Saudi Arabia's embassy here in Washington, D.C., looking for clarification, and I got no response so far. But Saudi watchers believe there are one of two reasons why this happened. The first is that King Salman, who's 84 years old and in frail health, is close to death, and Crown Prince Mohammed wanted to consolidate his power ahead of that. The other school of thought is that the crown prince feared the people that he detained were plotting against him. Ellen Wald, the author of "Saudi, Inc." says the arrests show the crown prince is worried about a challenge to his power.

诺瑟姆：我联系了沙特驻华盛顿特区大使馆，希望能得到解释，但直到目前我都没有得到任何回应。不过沙特观察人士认为，两个原因中的其中一个可以解释所发生的事情。其一，萨勒曼国王今年已经84岁，而且健康状况欠佳，濒临死亡，王储穆罕默德希望在国王去世前巩固自已的权力。另一种说法是，王储担心他关押的那些人在设计谋害他。《沙特公司》一书的作者埃伦·沃尔德表示，逮捕行动表明王储担心自已的权力受到挑战。

ELLEN WALD: It really does show an element of fear on the part of the monarchy, whether or not there was even a plot to overthrow him. And this is really a warning to them.

埃伦·沃尔德：这确实表明了君主的担心，无论是否存在推翻他的阴谋。这是对他们发出的警告。

NORTHAM: Now, a prominent Saudi commentator who has been close to the royal family, Ali Shihabi, tweeted that rumors of the king's death or a possible coup are nonsense. But he acknowledged there are a lot of quote, "disenfranchised royals" who are deeply displeased with the prince.

诺瑟姆：与王室关系密切的沙特评论员阿里·什哈比在推特上表示，有关国王去世或可能发生政变的传言纯属无稽之谈。但他承认，有很多“被剥夺权利的王室成员”对王储深感不满。

CORNISH: Can you talk about what you mean by disenfranchised royals? I mean, why do they feel left out?

柯尼什：你能谈谈被剥夺权利的王室成员是怎么回事吗？为什么他们会觉得受到了冷落？

NORTHAM: Well, there's a lot of dissatisfaction with how the crown prince has been leading the country since he became heir to the throne three-plus years ago. You know, he maneuvered himself into that position by sidelining royal rivals. He rounded up hundreds of princes and businessmen, you recall, and held them at the Ritz Carlton for several months. And his ambitious plans to overhaul the kingdom's economy have floundered.

诺瑟姆：自从王储在三年多之前成为王位继承人以来，外界就对他领导国家的方式存在很多不满。他通过排挤王室竞争对手的方式使自已获得了这个位置。你可能还记得，他围捕了数百名王子和商人，并将他们关在丽思·卡尔顿酒店数个月的时间。他改革沙特经济这一雄心勃勃的计划也破产了。

Now, you know, it would be one thing if all this remained in Saudi Arabia. But as we saw today, the crown prince's decision to increase oil production, effectively slashing the price per barrel, means his actions go far beyond Saudi's borders.

如果这些继续在沙特国内发酵，那是一回事。但正如我们今天所看到的，王储决定增加石油产量，有效降低每桶石油的价格，这意味着他的行动已经走出了沙特边界。

CORNISH: It had such an impact on the stock market today. Why did the crown prince decide to boost oil production?

柯尼什：此举对今天的股市产生了重大影响。为什么王储决定提高石油产量？

NORTHAM: It's part of a bitter spat with Russia. Saudi Arabia was pressing Moscow to lower production in order to keep prices up. But Moscow refused, so suddenly Saudi Arabia decided to pump more, which drove prices down. And I spoke with Noah Brenner, who's an analyst at Energy Intelligence, and he said traditionally technocrats in Saudi Arabia would have made those decisions.

诺瑟姆：部分原因涉及与俄罗斯的激烈争吵。沙特曾敦促俄罗斯政府降低石油产量，以抬高价格。但遭到了俄罗斯的拒绝，因此沙特突然决定加大产量，这导致油价走低。我采访了能源情报集团的分析师诺亚·布伦纳，他表示，沙特的技术官员往往会做出这样的决定。

NOAH BRENNER: Now, you know, we see with Prince Mohammed fully in control of what's happening, there's definitely a potential for greater volatility and as well, you know, seeing that personal aspect move into this.

诺亚·布伦纳：现在我们看到穆罕默德王储完全掌控了事态的发展，肯定有可能出现更大的波动，而且我们会看到个人看法的介入。

NORTHAM: And Brenner says it's his understanding that the decision to boost oil production came after Russian President Vladimir Putin refused to take a phone call from the crown prince.

诺瑟姆：布伦纳表示，据他了解，加大石油产量的决定是在俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京拒接王储电话之后做出的。

CORNISH: That's NPR's Jackie Northam. Thanks so much.

柯尼什：以上是NPR新闻的杰基·诺瑟姆带来的报道。非常谢谢你。

NORTHAM: Thank you.

诺瑟姆：谢谢。