2020年经济学人 武装力量(2)（在线收听）

Once volunteers began training they received further, daily questionnaires on their phones.

一旦开始训练，参与者就会在手机上收到每日调查问卷。

They were asked to rate their pain, both mental and physical, on a scale of one to five.

他们被要求给自己的精神和身体的痛苦系数打分，分值为1到5分。

They were asked if they thought of quitting and if they thought their instructors wanted them to graduate.

他们被问及，是否想过要退出，是否认为指导员会让他们毕业。

They were also asked about their sleep, their hydration, their nutrition and their own confidence that they would graduate.

他们还被问及睡眠质量、水分摄入、营养状况以及他们是否有信心毕业。

Dr Saxon's sample proved pretty representative in their rates of completion of the course.

Saxon博士的样本被证明，在参与者完成率方面具有相当的代表性。

As she reports in the Journal of Medical Internet Research, 56% were successful,

正如她在《医学互联网研究杂志》所报道，56%的参与者成功了，

23% dropped out of their own volition and 21% were removed for a mixture of medical, safety and performance reasons.

23%的参与者自愿退出， 21%的参与者因为健康、安全和表现等原因被退出。

Analysing the data for those who dropped out, Dr Saxon found that neither performance on physical standards,

对退出参与者数据进行分析后，Saxon博士发现，不论是体格标准的表现，

such as hikes or aquatic training, nor physiological measures of heart rate, work output, hydration, nutrition

如远足或水上训练，还是心率、工作输出、水化，营养

and sleep duration predicted who would throw in the towel.

和睡眠持续时间等生理指标都不能预测谁会退出。

Nor, among psychological factors, were conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness or agreeableness relevant.

在心理因素中，责任性、神经质性、开放性以及亲和性也不相关。

But extroversion (or, rather, introversion) was. Using scores for that parameter and also for positive affect,

但是和外向性（或者更确切地说，内向性）相关。利用这一参数和积极影响的得分，

Dr Saxon was able, retrospectively, to predict with 70% accuracy who would drop out.

Saxon博士能够回溯性地预测谁会退出，准确率达到70%。

She also showed when the towel was most likely to be thrown.

她还指出了参与者在什么时候最有可能退出。

A majority of droppings out happened just before a series of timed drills, conducted in a deep-water pool, in full uniform.

大部分退出是发生在一系列定时演习之前，该演习是在深水池中全副武装进行。

These drills are designed to test candidates' ability to perform tasks underwater, holding their breath, in a chaotic environment.

这些演习是为了检测候选人在水下混乱的环境中，能都屏住呼吸完成任务。

What the marine corps' trainers will do with this information is not yet clear.

目前还不清楚海军陆战队的训练人员将如何处理这些信息。

They could use it to winnow out likely failures before the course starts,

他们可以利用此信息在训练开始前筛选出可能会失败的人，

though that might seem unfair to introverts who would nevertheless have made it.

虽然这对那些本可以成功的内向者来说似乎不公平。

Or they might choose to identify those who need a bit of encouragement

又或者他们可以找出那些需要一点鼓励的人，

to throw themselves into both the literal and metaphorical deep end, on the presumption that, having done so,

让他们投入到深渊中（不论是现实中真实存在的还是隐喻性的），他们假设，这么做就能

they will then take the rest of the course in their stride. Either approach would, presumably, reduce the drop-out rate.

让他们从容地完成剩下的训练。这两种方法或许都能降低退出率。

What you can be sure of, though, is that the course itself will not be made any easier.

不过，可以肯定的是，训练本身不会变得更容易。