2020年经济学人 尽在掌控--疫情让西方政府加大干预力度(3)（在线收听）

Other changes may be less clear-cut, but will be hard to undo because they were backed by powerful constituencies even before the pandemic. One example is the further unpicking of the euro-zone pact that is supposed to impose discipline on the member-states’ borrowing. Likewise, Britain has taken its railways under state control—a step that is supposed to be temporary but which may never be retracted.

其他的变化可能不那么明确，但也很难撤销，因为它们甚至在疫情之前就得到了强大选民的支持。一个例子是欧元区协议的进一步瓦解，该协议旨在对成员国的借贷施加约束。同样，英国已经将其铁路置于国家控制之下——这一举措本应是暂时的，但可能永远不会收回。

More worrying is the spread of bad habits. Governments may retreat into autarky. Some fear running out of the ingredients for medicines, many of which are made in China. Russia has imposed a temporary ban on exporting grain. Industrialists and politicians have lost trust in supply chains. It is but a small step from there to long-term state support for the national champions that will have just been bailed out by taxpayers. Trade’s prospects are already dim; all this would further cloud them—and the recovery. And in the long term, a vast and lasting expansion of the state together with dramatically higher public debt is likely to lead to a lumbering, less dynamic kind of capitalism.

更令人担忧的是坏习惯的传播。政府可能会退回到自给自足的状态。一些人担心药品的成分即将用尽，其中许多都是中国制造的。俄罗斯暂时禁止粮食出口。工业家和政治家已经对供应链失去了信任。对于那些刚刚得到纳税人纾困的国家冠军企业来说，这只是一小步。贸易前景已经暗淡；所有这些都将进一步给他们和经济复苏蒙上阴影。从长远来看，政府的大规模持续扩张，加上公共债务的大幅增加，可能会导致一种缓慢、缺乏活力的资本主义。

But that is not the biggest problem. The greater worries lie elsewhere, in the abuse of office and the threats to freedom. Some politicians are already making power grabs, as in Hungary, where the government is seeking an indefinite state of emergency. Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, appears to see the crisis as a chance to evade a trial for corruption.

但这还不是最大的问题。更大的担忧存在于其他方面，滥用职权和对自由的威胁。一些政客已经在争权夺势，比如在匈牙利，政府正在寻求无限期的紧急状态。以色列总理本雅明?内塔尼亚胡似乎将这场危机视为逃避腐败审判的机会。

The most worrying is the dissemination of intrusive surveillance. Invasive data collection and processing will spread because it offers a real edge in managing the disease. But they also require the state to have routine access to citizens’ medical and electronic records. The temptation will be to use surveillance after the pandemic, much as anti-terror legislation was extended after 9/11. This might start with tracing tb cases or drug dealers.

最令人担忧的是侵入性监控的传播。侵入性的数据收集和处理将会扩散，因为它提供了控制疾病的真正优势。但它们也使得政府能够定期查看公民的医疗和电子记录。在疫情之后，人们很可能会倾向于使用监控手段，就像9/11之后反恐立法被延长一样。这可以从追踪结核病病例或毒贩开始。

Surveillance may well be needed to cope with covid-19. Rules with sunset clauses and scrutiny built in can help stop it at that. But the main defence against the overmighty state, in tech and the economy, will be citizens themselves. They must remember that a pandemic government is not fit for everyday life.

很可能需要监控来应对covid-19。带有“落日条款”和内部审查的规则可以帮助防止这种情况的发生。但在科技和经济领域，对抗这个政治上过于强势的国家的主要防御力量将是公民自己。他们必须记住，疫情期间的政府并不适合恢复正常后。