2020年经济学人 大宗商品--买方注意(1)(在线收听) |
Early in march the oil market's central banker seemed to go berserk. 三月初,石油市场的中央银行家们似乎暴跳如雷 Saudi Arabia, the most powerful member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), 作为石油输出国组织(OPEC)最强大的成员国 has long adjusted its supply to help stabilise the price of crude. Russia had teamed up with OPEC since 2016, 沙特阿拉伯长期以来一直在调整其石油供应,以帮助稳定原油价格。自2016年以来,俄罗斯一直与OPEC合作, but as covid-19 drove demand relentlessly down, it refused OPEC's plea to cut production. 但由于covid-19无情地压低了需求,它拒绝了欧佩克减产的请求。 Saudi Arabia retaliated, declaring its intent to flood global markets. 沙特阿拉伯进行了报复,宣称其意图淹没全球市场。 The price of Brent crude halved between March 5th and 18th, to $25 a barrel. 3月5日到18日之间,布伦特原油价格下跌了一半,至每桶25美元。 America is stepping in. On March 19th its Department of Energy said 美国介入。3月19日,美国能源部表示 it would buy 77m barrels of American crude to store in its strategic stockpile. 它将购买7700万桶美国原油储存在其战略储备中。 Ryan Sitton, a Texas oil regulator, is mulling restrictions on his state's output, which accounts for 41% of America's total. 德州石油监管官员Ryan Sitton正在考虑对占美国总产量41%的德州石油产量进行限制。 "The world is in an extraordinary time," he says. "We need to consider extraordinary solutions." “世界正处在一个非凡的时代”,他称。“我们需要考虑非凡的解决方法。” News on March 23rd that President Donald Trump had appointed an energy envoy to Saudi Arabia 3月23日,唐纳德·特朗普总统已经任命了一位能源特使前往沙特阿拉伯的消息 raised hopes that America might broker a truce between the kingdom and Russia. 燃起了美国可能促成沙特和俄罗斯停战的希望。 America is not a newcomer to oil-market meddling. 美国并不是石油市场干预的新手。 The formation of OPEC was inspired in part by the Texas Railroad Commission (on which Mr Sitton now serves). OPEC的形成部分是受到德克萨斯铁路委员会的启发(Sitton现在在该委员会任职)。 In the 1930s, when the price of oil wallowed below $1 a barrel, troopers fanned across Texas to enforce the commission's production limits. 20世纪30年代,当石油价格跌至每桶1美元以下时,德州各地的巡警展开行动,强制执行委员会的限产令。 As America's oil imports rose, attention shifted to securing supply. 随着美国石油进口的增加,人们的注意力转向了保障供应。 The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was created in 1975, after the Arab oil embargo. 战略石油储备建立于1975年,阿拉伯石油禁运之后。 Now that shale has transformed America into the world's biggest oil producer, 现在页岩已经将美国变成了世界上最大的石油生产国, the country has renewed interest in propping up the price of crude. 该国重新燃起了支撑原油价格的兴趣。 Mr Sitton maintains that production cuts may be necessary to ensure that America's shale industry survives covid-19. Sitton坚持认为,为了确保美国页岩产业能在covid-19中存活下来,减产可能是必要的。 But America will find OPEC 's mantle an awkward fit. 但是美国将会发现OPEC的职责是一个尴尬的搭配。 The vast salt caverns along America's Gulf coast that contain the strategic reserve are already about 90% full, 美国墨西哥湾沿岸包含战略储备的巨大盐穴已经满约90%, so they cannot store enough excess supply. Texan regulators have not tried to curb output for decades. 因此,它们无法储存足够的过剩供应。几十年来,德州的监管机构都没有想要限制产量。 Any attempt would surely meet legal and practical hurdles. 任何尝试肯定都会遇到法律和实际的障碍。 |
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