2020年经济学人 自由兑换——特快专递(1)(在线收听

Governments around the world are seeing their finances savaged by the pandemic.

世界各地的政府都看到他们的财政因全球性流行病而遭受重创。

And poor ones, who are also suffering from capital flight, are crying out for cash. The IMF, the world's crisis lender, is already parcelling out loans.

那些同样正在遭遇资金外流的贫困国家急需现金。危机贷方IMF已经在分发贷款。

It may yet resort to a weirder weapon: the special drawing right (SDR), an arcane financial instrument designed in the 1960s.

它或许还会求助于一种更加奇怪的武器:特别提款权(SDR),一种设计于20世纪60年代的神秘金融工具。

At present, some 204bn SDRS sit on the balance-sheets of finance ministries and central banks around the world.

目前,全球各国财政部和央行的资产负债表上约有2040亿SDRS。

Each can, in theory, be swapped for currency worth $1.36. Governments in poor countries desperately need cash to retain investors' confidence,

理论上,每一个都可以兑换成为价值1.36美元的货币。贫穷国家的政府迫切需要现金来维持投资者的信心,

pay off creditors and buy medical supplies. Some economists think an infusion of SDRS is part of the answer. Could this help tackle the corona-crisis?

还清债务以及购买医疗用品。一些经济学家认为SDRS的注入是部分答案。这能帮助阻止冠状病毒危机吗?

When SDRS were introduced in 1969 they were intended to reduce the world's dependence on dollars.

1969年,SDRS被引入时,其目的是为了降低世界对美元的依赖。

At the time many of the world's countries pegged their currencies to the greenback,

当时,世界很多国家的货币都和美元挂钩,

which was itself tied to gold, under the so-called "Bretton Woods" system of fixed exchange rates.

而在所谓的“布雷顿森林”固定汇率体系下,美元本身又与黄金挂钩。

But the two components were in tension with one another. When too few dollars circulated in the world economy,

但这两个部分相互矛盾。当世界经济中流通的美元太少时

perhaps as a result of America spending less on imports, countries would hoard greenbacks to defend their pegs, and global commerce ground to a halt.

(可能是由于美国减少了进口支出),各国会囤积美元以保护其挂钩汇率,全球贸易将陷入停滞。

But creating enough dollars to satisfy the global demand for reserves imperilled the credibility of the dollar's peg to gold.

但创造出能够满足全球储备需求的美元又会危及美元挂钩黄金的可信度。

Providing an alternative reserve asset, it was thought, might provide an escape from this dilemma.

人们认为提供另一种储备资产或许能够摆脱这种困境。

The idea was reminiscent of "bancor", a global currency proposed by John Maynard Keynes in 1941.

这一想法让人们回忆起了1941年约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯提议的一种全球货币——“bancor”。

Like bancor, SDRS aim to share the so-called "seigniorage" benefits that accrue to America as a result of providing the world's currency.

和bancor一样,SDRS旨在分享美国所享有的所谓的“铸币税”的好处,这是美国提供世界货币的结果。

To reinforce their balance-sheets with dollars, countries must, in aggregate, sell goods and services to America and hold on to the proceeds.

为了用美元来巩固他们的资产负债表,这些国家必须向美国出售商品和服务,并把收益留在手中。

But when SDRS are issued, everyone gets reserves without having to provide anything in return.

但当发行SDRS时,每个国家都可以获得储备,而无需提供任何回报。

Reserves fall like manna from heaven, rather than emerging from trade flows.

储备金像天上掉下来的甘露,而不是从贸易流通中冒出来的。

Yet SDRS failed to take off. The need for them became less pressing after America untethered the dollar from gold in 1971.

但SDRS没能发展起来。1971年美国将美元与黄金脱钩后,对它们的需求就不那么迫切了。

And too few were issued. Keynes had proposed that the stock of bancors would grow in line with world trade.

发行的SDRS很少。凯恩斯曾提议,bancors的存量将随着世界贸易的增长而增长。

But political wrangling means that there have been only three allocations of SDRS, the most recent of which was in 2009.

但政治角逐意味着只有三次SDRS的分配,最近一次是在2009年。

They make up less than 3% of non-gold reserves; by contrast, the dollar makes up over half.

它们在非黄金储备中所占的比例不到3%;相比之下,美元占了一半以上。

As a source of liquidity, though, SDRS have their advantages. They are not a true currency,

不过,作为一种流动资产来源,SDRS有其自身的优势。它们并非真正的货币,

as they can be exchanged only between IMF members and not in private markets.

因为它们只能在IMF成员国之间兑换,而不能在私人市场上兑换。

Maurice Obstfeld of the University of California, Berkeley—and a former chief economist at the fund—sees them as a way to share risk.

加州大学伯克利分校的Maurice Obstfeld——兼IMF前首席经济学家——将它们看成是一种分担风险的方法。

Countries are given SDRS in proportion to their IMF "quotas", which determine their financial commitment to the fund and their voting rights.

各国根据他们的IMF“配额”分配SDRS,配额决定了他们对IMF的财政承担和投票权。

When they face a liquidity crunch, they can offer cash-rich countries SDRS in exchange for hard currency.

当他们面临资金紧缩时,他们可以向现金充裕的国家提供SDRS,以换取硬通货。

They must pay interest, currently at a rate of 0.05%, on the amount of their SDRS they choose to convert,

他们必须为交换的SDRS支付利息,目前的利率为0.05%,

making exchanging an SDR a bit like drawing on an emergency overdraft—one that does not need to be repaid.

这使得兑换SDR有点像是紧急透支——一种不需要偿还的透支。

  原文地址:http://www.tingroom.com/lesson/2020jjxr/501498.html