PBS高端访谈:美国就业和未来经济发展走势（在线收听）

Judy Woodruff: As we just heard, the monthly employment report came with lots of good news today, just four days before the election, and building again on eight-plus consecutive years of job growth. Amna Nawaz gets some quick takeaways about the larger picture.

Amna Nawaz: Judy, some of the better news: a quarter of a million new jobs, a wage boost that is the best since 2009, and unemployment at its lowest rate in almost 50 years. But there are still concerns over trade and tariffs. And the stock market has been especially volatile through October. The Dow Jones industrial average has given back all of its gains for the year. For more, let's bring in Heather Long. She's an economics correspondent for The Washington Post, and joins me here now. Welcome to the "NewsHour."

Heather Long: Great to be here.

Amna Nawaz: So, let's dig into this. Now, the report is just a snapshot if time, right? What really matters are the underlying trends. So what are you seeing here? What are the trends behind these numbers?

Heather Long: These are great numbers that we have seen today. It's obviously been 97 straight months of job gains in the United States. That's never happened before, that kind of a record. So this has been going on for a while. It's not like it just started in October of this year. But it is unusual to be seeing such strong job gains this late in an economic cycle, so this far along. And I was particularly pleased to see that the job gains were across the board. Every major sector of the economy is adding jobs. And in manufacturing and a number of blue-collar jobs, we're seeing the fastest job gain since 1984. So we are seeing some especially strong numbers right now.

Amna Nawaz: That wage growth, we mentioned being the best since 2009, a lot of people are looking at that. What does that mean? Is that market gains finally kind of making their way down to the average worker? And will those continue, that growth?

Heather Long: That's a great question. This is the first number we have seen above 3 percent since 2009, so it's going in the right direction, and all economists, or many I talk to, think it's going to keep going up, which is good. That said, costs are also rising. So the real number, after you factor in rising costs of gas and rent, is more like point 0.8 to 1 percent real growth gains. So we want to keep seeing that number go higher. And an important point is the last time unemployment was this low, back in 2000, wage gains were 3.5 to 4 percent. So we have got more room to run.

Amna Nawaz: We mentioned some of that volatility we saw last month, some really big daily swings in October in the markets. Where did that come from? What was feeding that? And are we going to expect more of that this month?

Heather Long: Some of that, we saw again today, as the markets were up and then down. And that's from this debate about, is the China trade war, the U.S.-China trade war going to keep escalating? But the real question that investors are asking is, is the economy peaking right now? And we had this substantial tax cut, and we have had deregulation, we have had extra fiscal stimulus. That's all pushed profits higher. But a lot of people say, is it really going to keep going in 2019 and 2020? Or are we going to start sliding down possibly into a recession? Nobody quite knows that right now. There's a huge debate going on. And that's why you're seeing that volatility in the markets.

Amna Nawaz: Very quickly, before we go, in about 15 seconds, are we going to see another interest rate hike from the Fed before the end of the year?

Heather Long: After today's jobs report, it's a certainty, well, almost a certainty. You can never say 100 percent certain. But unless there's something crazy that happens, the interest rates are going higher in December and probably next year.

Amna Nawaz: Heather Long of The Washington Post, thanks so much for being here.

Heather Long: Thank you.

朱迪·伍德拉夫：还有4天就要中期选举了，大家可能都听说了，月度就业情况报告今天发布了，带来了很多好消息，比如，就业率连续8年以上再创新高。下面请听我台记者阿姆纳·纳瓦兹给大家带来的整体情况简讯。

阿姆纳·纳瓦兹：朱迪好。先介绍下特大喜讯：新增岗位25万，工资平均增长值是2009年以来的最高峰，失业率达到近50年来的新低。但贸易和关税方面让人颇为担心。而且10月份股市震荡严重。道琼斯工业平均指数跌至年初水平。接下来，我想请希瑟·朗加入我们。她是《华盛顿邮报》经济版的记者，现在她就在我身边。欢迎来到《新闻一小时》。

希瑟·朗：很高兴加入咱们的节目。

阿姆纳·纳瓦兹：那么，咱们来详细地聊聊这个事儿。目前来看，这份报告只是一个概况，对吗？真正重要的是可能的趋势。所以您从报告中能看出什么呢？这些数字背后有什么趋势呢？

希瑟·朗：今天，我们看到了很多让人欣喜的数据。美国就业率已经实现连续97个月的增长。这是前所未有的历史记录。这种情况已经持续了一段时间了，不像是从今年10月才开始的。但是经济周期里如此强劲的就业增长出现的这么晚，这不太正常，等得太久了。我特别高兴能看到就业率上涨。每个经济成分的就业岗位都在增加。而且制造业和蓝领职业的就业岗位是1984年以来的增速最高值。所以目前的数据很厉害。

阿姆纳·纳瓦兹：我们刚才提到过，工资增长也实现了2009年以来的最高值，很多人都很关注这件事。这意味着什么呢？是否意味着市场的红利终于开始惠及到普通工人身上了呢？这种增长的势头会持续吗？

希瑟·朗：这是个好问题。这是2009年以来我们首次看到工资增长率超过了3%。所以整体方向是正确的，而且所有经济学家，或者至少是我访问过得所有经济学家，都认为这种情况会持续高涨，这是好现象。虽然如此，成本也在增加。所以在考虑到天然气和租金的成本后，净收入实际上涨了0.8%-1%。所以我们希望这种情况能持续下去。很重要的时间节点是：上一次失业率如此低的时候是2000年，那时候的工资增长是3.5%-4%。所以，我们有更多上升的空间。

阿姆纳·纳瓦兹：我们提到上个月，也就是10月的一些震荡，当时每天震荡都很严重。震荡的原因是什么呢？是什么助长了这种趋势呢？这个月会有更多的震荡出现吗？

希瑟·朗：有些震荡今天依然存在，市场起起伏伏的。我们是否要讨论下中美贸易战呢？贸易战是否会持续升级呢？但投资者真正关心的是：经济现在是否已经达到了顶峰呢？我们进行了大幅减税，撤消了很多管制规定，进行了额外的财政刺激。这些都促使利润增加。但很多人会发出疑问：这种局势在2019-2020年是否会保持下去呢？我们是否会堕入经济衰退呢？现在没有人能回答这个问题。现在外界热议沸腾，所以市场才会如此震荡。

阿姆纳·纳瓦兹：让我们再用简短15秒的时间来讨论下：今年年底之前，联邦政府是否回进行另一轮利率飙升呢？

希瑟·朗：今天发布了就业情况报告之后，利率基本上是会上涨的。但什么事情都不能说的太过绝对。但如果没有疯狂的事情发生，12月份的利率会继续升高，甚至明年都是如此。

阿姆纳·纳瓦兹：感谢《华盛顿邮报》的希瑟·朗加入我们。

希瑟·朗：谢谢大家。