2020年经济学人 发达国家经济衰退(1)（在线收听）

As the virus upends productive activity across the world, the question now is how bad things will get.

病毒颠覆了世界各地的生产活动，现在的问题是事情会变得多糟糕。

On April 14th the IMF warned that the global recession would be the deepest for the best part of a century.

4月14日，IMF警告称这将是一个世纪以来最严重的全球经济衰退。

But the severity of the pandemic and the uncertainty around the duration of lockdowns are such that economists' models,

但是疫情的严重程度和封锁期间的不确定性，使得经济学家在战后时期

trained on business cycles in the postwar era, are of little use.

接受过商业周期训练的模型几乎毫无作用。

Some companies, such as Starbucks and Dell, have pulled their guidance on annual earnings, declining even to hazard a guess about the future.

像星巴克和戴尔这样的一些公司，已经取消了对年度收益的预期，甚至拒绝对未来进行猜测。

Amid the fog, however, one thing seems certain: some economies will suffer much more than others.

但在不确定中，有一件事似乎是确定的：一些经济体将比其他经济体遭受更大的损失。

Economic crises expose and exacerbate structural weaknesses.

经济危机暴露并加剧了经济结构的弱点。

Analysis by The Economist of five decades of GDP data finds that growth rates in rich countries tend to converge during expansions,

本刊对50年GDP数据的分析发现，在经济扩张时期，发达国家的经济增长率趋于一致，

as even the weakest economies are pulled along. Yet during downturns performance diverges markedly.

即使是最弱的经济体也会被拉着前进。但在低迷时期，经济表现明显不同。

In the first half of the 2000s the average annual gap between the GDP growth rates of the best-and worst-performing rich countries was five percentage points.

在本世纪前五年，经济增长率表现最好和最糟糕的发达国家之间的平均年度GDP差距是5个百分点。

In 2008-12, in the recession that followed the global financial crisis, the gap widened to ten points.

2008年至2012年，在全球金融危机之后的经济衰退中，这一差距扩大到10个百分点。

This recession will be no different. Three factors should help separate the bad economic outcomes from the dire ones:

这次经济衰退也不例外。三个因素应该可以帮助区分糟糕的经济后果和可怕的经济后果：

a country's industrial structure; the composition of its corporate sector; and the effectiveness of its fiscal stimulus.

一个国家的产业结构；其经济部门的组成以及其财政刺激的实效性。

The Economist has used indicators of these to rank, roughly, the exposure of 33 rich countries to the downturn.

本刊利用这三个指标对暴露于经济衰退的33个发达国家进行粗略排名。

Some, such as those in southern Europe, appear far more vulnerable than America and northern European countries.

一些国家，如南欧国家，似乎比美国和北欧国家更脆弱。

Take industrial structure first. Lockdowns will slam countries that depend on labour-intensive activities.

首先是产业结构。封锁将打击那些依赖劳动密集型活动的国家。

Those with large construction sectors, such as many central European countries, look vulnerable.

那些依赖建筑业的国家，如许多中欧国家，看上去很脆弱。

So do those that rely on tourism—it accounts for one in eight non-financial jobs in southern Europe.

那些依赖旅游业的国家也一样——占南欧非金融工作的八分之一。

Conversely, those with large mining industries, which require less labour, may do better. Here Canada looks relatively insulated.

相反，那些需要较少劳动力的大型矿业，可能更好些。在这里，加拿大看起来相对不受影响。

Industrial structure also influences the share of people who can work from home, and thus dodge the worst disruption of the lockdowns.

产业结构也影响了可在家办公的人数比例，从而避免了封锁带来的最严重的破坏。

In a paper published on April 10th Jonathan Dingel and Brent Neiman of the University of Chicago estimate that

在一份发表于4月10日的论文中，芝加哥大学的Jonathan Dingel和Brent Neiman预计

fully 45% of jobs in Switzerland could plausibly be done from home.

在瑞士，有45%的工作可以在家完成。

Many Swiss work in industries, such as finance, where all they really need to do their job is a laptop.

很多在金融等行业工作的瑞士人只需一台笔记本电脑。

Others elsewhere do not have this luxury. Less than a third of jobs in Slovakia, a big manufacturing hub, can be performed remotely;

其他地方则没有这种奢侈。在斯洛伐克这个大型制造业中心，只有不到三分之一的工作可以远程完成的；

home working is also difficult in southern Europe. Research by Indeed, a job-search website,

在南欧，在家工作也很困难。求职网站Indeed

and Ireland's central bank finds that since the pandemic began,

以及爱尔兰中央银行的一项研究发现，自疫情开始以来，

countries where home working is less prevalent have seen bigger falls in the number of online job advertisements.

在家办公不那么普遍的国家，其在线招聘广告的数量出现了更大幅度的下降。