PBS高端访谈:伊朗对美国的挑衅行为（在线收听）

JUDY WOODRUFF: The weekend is beginning amid a swirl of speculation about President Trump's intentions toward Iran. He says he was on the brink of ordering airstrikes last night, when he pulled back. Iran says it, too, is practicing restraint, despite having shot down a U.S. military drone. Foreign affairs correspondent Nick Schifrin begins our coverage.

NICK SCHIFRIN: In Tehran today, the Revolutionary Guard Corps showed off their catch, the charred remains of the U.S. drone they shot down. But as he invited camera crews to document the destruction, General Amir Ali Hajizadeh said yesterday could have been deadlier.

GEN. AMIR ALI HAJIZADEH, Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Aerospace Force (through translator): At the same moment when this aircraft was being tracked, another spy aircraft called P-8 was flying close to this drone. That aircraft is manned, and has around 35 crew members. We could have targeted that plane.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Six thousand miles away, in an interview with NBC News, President Trump described discussing options with military commanders, and also said yesterday could have been deadlier.

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: They came and they said: Sir, we're ready to go. We'd like a decision. I said: I want to know something before you go. How many people will be killed, in this case, Iranians. Came back, said: Sir, approximately 150. And I thought about it for a second. And I said, you know what, they shot down an unmanned drone, plane, whatever you want to call it, and here we are sitting with 150 dead people that would have taken place probably within a half-hour after I said go ahead. And I didn't like it. I didn't think it was, I didn't think it was proportionate.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Iran says it used this interceptor missile to shoot down the drone. The U.S. military says it's located here, along Iran's coast. Former senior military officials tell PBS NewsHour the president was likely given options to attack that missile site, its command-and-control, and its radar systems. And those former senior military and diplomatic officials say the military strike options presented to the president would have included casualty estimates from the very beginning. It's not clear why the president received that information so close to giving an order to attack. But those former officials say it raises questions about the decision-making process.

BRETT MCGURK, Former Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL: Taking the president at his word today, the key fact, how many people are going to die in this attack, apparently was not in the president's mind until really before moments before he was going to order the attack. So that suggests to me a breakdown of the process. That should be one of the first facts that's on the table.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Brett McGurk was a senior State Department official until he resigned in December in protest to the administration's decision to withdrawal from Syria. He says the strike the president described could have quickly escalated.

BRETT MCGURK: An American attack that took 150 Iranian lives, particularly in response to an attack that took no American lives, I think the Iranians would be in a position, just given how they think, that they would have to respond to that. Therefore, there would be another reckless provocation from the Iranians, which would then put the onus again on President Trump to respond again.

NICK SCHIFRIN: That fear was echoed today by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.

REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA): A strike with that amount of collateral damage would be very provocative. And I'm glad the president didn't take that.

NICK SCHIFRIN: But some of the president's allies called his response weak. Number three in the House Republican leadership, Liz Cheney of Wyoming:

REP. LIZ CHENEY (D-WY): I think that we simply can't allow America's adversaries to think that they can shoot down a U.S. military drone with impunity. And we saw the damage that was done by Barack Obama when he announced a red line and then failed to enforce it. The failure to respond to this kind of direct provocation could, in fact, be a very serious mistake.

NICK SCHIFRIN: The military remains ready to respond. But after yesterday's decision not to attack, analysts say the ball is now in Iran's court.

For the PBS NewsHour, I'm Nick Schifrin.

朱迪·伍德拉夫：本周末的焦点话题是特朗普总统对伊朗的打击计划。特朗普表示自己昨晚差点就下令进行空袭，但最后一刻放弃了。伊朗方面也表示自己已经在克制行动了，虽然此前已经击落一架美国军事无人机。下面请听我台外事记者尼克发回的报道。

尼克：今天，在伊朗首都德黑兰，伊朗革命卫队炫耀了战利品——他们击落的无人机烧焦了的残骸。哈吉扎德将军向镜头展示了现场无人机的毁坏情况，与此同时，他表示昨天的情况可能会比现在更惨烈。

哈吉扎德将军，伊朗革命卫队航天部队（以下内容为翻译版本）：与此同时，这架飞机在被追踪期间，另一架P-8侦察机也在向这架无人机靠近。后者是载人机，上面有35名乘客。我们本来可以以这架飞机为目标的。

尼克：此时，6000英里外的特朗普正在接受全国广播公司（NBC）的采访。特朗普也描述了他与多位司令官讨论可选方案的情形，特朗普还表示，昨天的情形可能会更加致命。

唐纳德·特朗普，美国总统：这几位司令官走过来，他们跟我说——总统先生，我们已准备就绪，可随时行动，现在只等您的决定。我回答说：在开始行动之前，我想了解一些事情——有多少伊朗人会因此而死？他们回复说：总统先生，大概会有150人死亡。于是，我思考了一秒钟。然后我对他们说：我想说——伊朗击落的一架无人机，但如果我发话袭击的话，那么不出半小时，就会有150具尸体，这就是实情。我不想这样，我觉得这样不合适。

尼克：伊朗方面表示自己动用了截击导弹，击落了这架无人机。美军表示它的位置就在伊朗海岸线上。一些前高级军事官员在接受PBS《新闻一小时》采访时表示，特朗普总统很有可能可以选择袭击那个导弹所在地、指挥控制及其雷达系统。这些曾经担任高级军事官员和高级外交官员的人说，此次给特朗普总统军事袭击的几项选择应该从一开始就涉及了死伤人数的预估。目前尚不清楚特朗普为何临时变卦。但这些前官员表示，此举引发了诸多关于决策流程的疑问。

反抗伊斯兰国全球联盟特使布雷特·迈克格克：按总统今天所说的话来看，主要的事实，即多少人会在此次袭击中死亡的这件事显示一开始并没有在特朗普的考虑范围内，直到特朗普要下令发动袭击之前，他才有考虑到这一点。所以，我个人认为，这体现了决策流程的不完善。这应该是我们公开讨论的第一个点。

尼克：布雷特·迈克格克曾经担任国务院高级官员。去年12月，他离职了，离职之举是为了抗议特朗普政府从叙利亚撤军的决定。他表示，特朗普所描述的这次空袭可能迅速升级。

布雷特·迈克格克：美国居然要夺走150个伊朗人的生命，尤其是在伊朗的袭击并未导致伤亡的情况下，我个人觉得，在这种情况下，伊朗就会想要有所回应。因此，伊朗或许会有再一次的无理挑衅，然后如何回应的问题又落在了特朗普的肩上。

尼克：今天众议院议长南希·佩洛西也表达了这一忧虑。众议员南希·佩洛西：有附带损害的袭击会十分具有挑衅性。我很高兴特朗普总统没有真地发动打击计划。

尼克：但特朗普的一些盟友认为特朗普的回应太怂了。众议院三把手、怀俄明州议员利兹·切尼：

众议员利兹·切尼：我认为，我们不能让美国的敌人认为自己可以毫发无伤地击落美国的军事无人机。我们也看到了奥巴马总统所造成的损害——奥巴马公开宣布了红线，但却没能严格执行。对于这种直接的挑衅行为，如果没有回应，就会犯下滔天大错。

尼克：美国军队已经准备就绪，随时可以反击。但昨天特朗普决定不发动袭击，分析师认为这一切要看伊朗怎么做了。感谢收听尼克发回的《新闻一小时》。