2020年经济学人 波音正在考虑其救助方案（在线收听）

Business

来源于《商业》版块

Boeing

波音

Up in the air

直上云霄

The aerospace giant ponders its bail-out options

这家航空巨头正在考虑其救助方案

The coronavirus laid many of Boeing’s airline customers low—literally, for many have suspended flights. Fears about the giant’s fate, already uncertain because of the year-long grounding of its best-selling 737 max jet after two fatal crashes, became so rife that last month Goldman Sachs, a bank, felt compelled to stress that it “will remain a going concern”. The company itself insists likewise. It is probably right—the question is not whether it will survive but how.

冠状病毒使波音公司的许多航空公司客户受到了严重的打击，因为许多公司已经暂停了航班。人们对这个巨头命运的担忧，已经因为这一年而变得不确定——畅销的波音737 max喷气式飞机在两起致命事故后长期停飞，这种情况变得如此普遍，以至于上个月高盛银行感到有必要强调，它将继续经营下去。公司本身也坚持同样的观点。这可能是对的，问题不在于它能否存活，而在于如何存活。

Boeing.jpgBoeing has a safety net. A third of revenues in 2019 came from its defence arm, which, with its services division, will bring in $5bn in profits this year, reckons Bernstein, a research firm. It has cash on its balance- sheet, the balance of a $14bn credit line and has suspended its dividend. Dave Calhoun, Boeing’s new boss, says that the firm has $15bn in liquidity.

波音公司有一张安全网。研究公司伯恩斯坦估计，2019年三分之一的收入来自其国防部门，该部门及其服务部门今年将带来50亿美元的利润。该公司的资产负债表上有现金，还有140亿美元的信贷额度，并已暂停派息。波音公司的新老板戴夫·卡尔霍恩表示，该公司拥有150亿美元的流动资金。

Jefferies, a bank, estimates that the company burns through $4.3bn of cash a month with a complete suspension of deliveries. So it may need government help if the crisis drags out. Lucky, then, that Congress folded its plea for assistance for American aviation into a $2trn stimulus package. This includes $25bn for carriers and $17bn for firms “critical to maintaining national security” (ie, Boeing). The terms are unclear and talks ongoing. But Steve Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, has hinted that help would come with strings—including an equity stake for the state.

据投行杰富瑞集团估计，该公司每月要烧掉43亿美元现金，同时完全停止发货。因此，如果危机持续下去，它可能需要政府的帮助。幸运的是，国会将对美国航空业的援助纳入2万亿美元的经济刺激计划。其中包括250亿美元用于航空公司，170亿美元用于“对维护国家安全至关重要”的公司(如波音公司)。条款尚不清楚，谈判仍在进行。但是财政部长史蒂芬?姆钦暗示，援助是有附带条件的——包括国家的股份。

Boeing is unwilling to entertain this (for now). It may prefer to try to tap $454bn set aside in the stimulus for loans and guarantees to big firms, which would not involve giving up equity. Mr Calhoun says his company can raise money in the market. But the terms would be onerous. Despite recent improvements, its ten-year bonds trade below par and the cost of insuring its debt against default remains high.

波音公司(目前)不愿考虑这一点。它可能更愿意尝试动用刺激计划中拨出的4540亿美元，用于向大公司提供贷款和担保，这不会涉及放弃股权。卡尔霍恩表示，他的公司可以在市场上筹集资金。但是条件会很苛刻。尽管最近有所改善，但其十年期债券交易低于票面价值，其债务违约保险成本仍然很高。

Boeing hopes that business will bounce back quickly; it has been reluctant to furlough workers, notes Ken Herbert of Canaccord Genuity, a bank. It intends to restart making the 737 max in May (slowly at first). Goldman Sachs reckons that even if it delivers only half the planes planned for this year it will have the liquidity to cover a “deeply negative” cashflow. But airlines may not return to normal service for months, depressing sales. Mr Calhoun may have to pick between a bitter market rescue and an unsavoury government one.

波音公司希望业务能迅速反弹；加拿大投行加通贝祥的肯?赫伯特指出，银行一直不愿让员工休假。该公司打算在5月份重新开始生产737 max(起初进展缓慢)。高盛认为，即使它只交付了今年计划的一半飞机，它也将有足够的流动性来支付“严重负”的现金流。但航空公司可能在几个月内无法恢复正常服务，这将抑制销售。卡尔霍恩可能不得不在痛苦的市场救助和令人厌恶的政府救助之间做出选择。