2020年经济学人 精明的牵制(1)（在线收听）

You know by now, if you've been paying attention, that the coronavirus pandemic is,

如果大家一直在关注的话，现在你应该知道，此次冠状病毒

if not a turning point in history, then the midwife toprofound change or, at the very least, anopportunity for a bit of a rethink.

即便不是一个历史转折点，也应该是深刻变革的促成因素，或者至少是一个重新思考的机会。

Everything has changed—except, perhaps, minds. Those who expected China

一切都发生了改变——除了思想。那些预计中国

(or the European Union or shareholder capitalism) to blow up are now more convinced it will.

（或欧盟或股东资本主义）会崩溃的人，现在更加确信了。

Believers in globalisation's retreat, or inflation's comeback, have fewer doubts.

相信全球化会倒退，或通胀会卷土重来的人，就没有那么多疑问了。

And if you were chary of emerging markets you might be more so now.

如果你以前对新兴市场很谨慎，现在可能会更加谨慎。

In March, when there was a mad scramble for cash, the cash everyone wanted was dollars.

今年3月，当人们疯狂地争抢现金时，每个人都想要的现金是美元。

When the dollar gets bid up, it hurts emerging markets. If inflation returns, meanwhile, itwill surely show up first in the developing world.

当美元被推高时，新兴市场就会受到伤害。与此同时，如果通胀卷土重来，它肯定会首先出现在发展中国家。

Yet if these vices seem more apparent, so does the virtue of diversification.

然而，如果这些缺点看起来更加明显，那么多元化的优点也一样。

The ideal diversifier is not just something other than what you own, but something thatcontrasts with it.

理想的分散投资不只是你没有的东西，而是与你所拥有的相反的东西。

The typical portfolio is rich in dollar assets—in Treasuries and the leading American shares. Itneeds a counterweight, an anti-dollar trade.

典型的投资组合是拥有丰富的美元资产——国债和美国主要股票。它需要一种牵制力，一种反美元的贸易。

A benchmark basket of emerging-market stocks is a good one.

新兴市场的一篮子基准股票是个不错的选择。

It helps that such stocks are cheap. Valuations based on company earnings are oftenmisleading at the start of recessions.

这类股票的低价是有帮助的。在经济衰退开始时，以公司盈利为基础的估值往往具有误导性。

Recent earnings figures flatter the appraisal; forward-looking estimates of profits take time toreflect grim reality.

近期收益数据让评估结果更加乐观；对利润的前瞻性评估需要时间来反映严峻的现实。

A way around this is to use a measure that takes in company profits over the cycle:

解决这个问题的一种方法是使用一种在周期内计算公司利润的方法：

the CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio) popularised by Robert Shiller of YaleUniversity.

由耶鲁大学的Robert Shiller所推广起来的CAPE（经周期性调整的市盈率）。

A snapshot taken at recent market lows by James Montier of GMO, an asset-management firm, shows a healthy margin of safety.

资产管理公司GMO的James Montier在近期市场低点做的一个写照，显示了一个健康的安全边际。

Emerging-market shares look very cheap relative to both their history and to America'sS&P 500 index of shares.

对比其历史和美国标准普尔500指数，新兴市场的股票看起来非常便宜。

Rich-world investors must also consider exchange-rate risk. Forecasting currencies is a mug'sgame.

发达国家的投资者也必须考虑汇率风险。预测货币是一件费力不讨好的事。

Even so, a shrewd investor should at least check she is not buying a currency that isobviously riding high, and thus at greater risk of a dramatic fall.

即便如此，精明的投资者至少应该检查一下自己是否在买入一种明显走高、因而面临大幅下跌风险更大的货币。