2020年经济学人 精明的牵制(2)（在线收听）

A broad analysis by Charles Robertson of Renaissance Capital, an investment bank,

投资银行复兴资本的Charles Robertson所做的广谱分析发现

finds that after recent declines, emerging-market currencies are as cheap in real terms as they have been since the mid-2000s.

在经历了近期的下跌后，新兴市场货币的实际汇率与21世纪中期以来的水平一样低。

Should inflation pick up faster in the developing world than in the rich one, the reckoning would change.

如果发展中国家的通货膨胀率比发达国家上升得更快，那么清算的方式就会改变。

Currencies would then need to fall further in nominal terms to keep the exchange rate steady in real terms, so that exports stay competitive.

届时，各国货币的名义汇率需要进一步下跌，以保持实际汇率的稳定，从而使出口保持竞争力。

Emerging-market economies tend to be more inflation-prone than richer ones. Because of that, central banks have generally been vigilant.

新兴市场经济体往往比发达国家更容易出现通货膨胀。正因为如此，各国央行总体上一直保持警惕。

A weaker currency has been typically met with higher interest rates to counter imported inflation—even if that hurts an already weak economy.

更加弱势货币通常会带来更高的利率，以抵消输入型通货膨胀——即使这会损害本已疲弱的经济。

But a lot of central banks in the developing world have relaxed monetary policy recently—understandable, given the severity of the economic shock.

但很多发展中国家的中央银行近期已经放宽了货币政策——鉴于此次经济冲击的严重性，这是可以理解的

For some countries, though, the dangers of inflation are not great. These more closely resemble rich-world economies,

虽然，对于一些国家而言，通货膨胀的危险并不大。这些国家与发达国家的经济更为相似，

where a weak currency leads to a temporary burst of inflation. The wealthier parts of Asia are like this.

在发达国家，货币疲软会导致暂时的通货膨胀。亚洲较富裕的地区是这样的。

But in other places inflation sticks around if not stomped upon. That tends to be because wages are indexed to prices;

但在其他国家，即使没有经济冲击，通货膨胀也会继续存在。这往往是因为工资与物价挂钩；

industry is somewhat cartelised; or trust in the currency is low, encouraging the local use of the dollar. Parts of Latin America come to mind. So does Turkey.

工业被卡特尔化；或者说对货币的信任很低，这鼓励了美元在当地的使用。拉丁美洲的部分地区就是如此。土耳其也是。

Indeed the options a country has when its currency falls define its status, says Eric Lonergan of M&G, a fund-management group.

基金管理集团M&G的Eric Lonergan表示，一个国家在其货币贬值时所拥有的选择权确实决定了它的地位。

If it must raise interest rates to counter inflation, it is an emerging market; if it has the room to cut rates without fear, it is developed.

如果它必须提高利率以对抗通胀，那它就是一个新兴市场；如果它有降息的空间，那么它就是发达国家。

Definitions matter, of course. Part of the appeal of indices of emerging-market stocks is that they are dominated by Asian economies that are fairly rich and well-run.

当然，定义很重要。新兴市场股票指数吸引人的部分原因在于，它们是由相当富裕且运行良好的亚洲经济体所主导。

They count as emerging markets, because the buying and selling of financial assets is not quite frictionless.

它们被视为新兴市场，因为金融资产的买卖并非完全没有摩擦。

All may prove quite resilient as the world emerges from lockdown. At the very least, the way they perform is likely to be different from rich-world economies.

当世界从封锁中复苏时，所有这些都可能被证明是相当有弹性的。至少，他们的表现可能与发达国家不同。

That feature alone should be appealing to a certain kind of investor.

单凭这一点就应该能吸引特定类型的投资者。

If the world is indeed changed radically by this health crisis, it may be in ways that are hard to imagine today.

如果这场健康危机确实从根本改变了这个世界，其方式可能是如今难以想象的。

And if you are unsure of the future, it makes all the more sense to spread your bets.

如果你对未来不确定，那么分散你的赌注就更有道理了。