2020年经济学人 量化宽松政策也适用于新兴市场(1)（在线收听）

Emerging markets have long resented quantitative easing (QE).

新兴市场长期以来都很讨厌量化宽松政策（QE）。

When America's Federal Reserve began its third round of asset purchases in 2012,

2012年，当美联储开始第三轮资产购买计划时，

Guido Mantega, then Brazil's finance minister, accused it of starting a "currency war".

时任巴西财政部长吉多·曼特加指责美国发动了一场“货币战争”。

In 2013 Raghuram Rajan, then the chief economic adviser to India's government, expressed his displeasure in the manner of Winston Churchill:

2013年，时任印度政府首席经济顾问的拉格拉姆·拉扬以温斯顿·丘吉尔的口吻表达了他的不满：

"Never in the field of economic policy has so much been spent, with so little evidence, by so few."

“在经济政策领域，这么少的人，依据这么少的证据，投放如此多的资金，这是从未有过的情况。”

In response to the covid-19 pandemic, much is being spent again. But not by so few.

为应对covid-19疫情，大量的资金再次被投入，但是这么做的人不少。

The central banks of America, the euro area, Britain and Japan are set to buy $6trn worth of assets between them this year, according to Fitch, a rating agency,

根据评级机构Fitch，美国、欧元区、英国和日本的央行今年将购买价值6万亿美元的资产，

three times what they bought in 2013, the previous peak. And emerging markets are no longer grumbling on the sidelines.

是2013年峰值时的三倍。并且新兴市场也不再是旁观者。

Monetary authorities in Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Hungary, Indonesia, Poland, Romania,

智利、哥伦比亚、哥斯达黎加、克罗地亚、匈牙利、印度尼西亚、波兰、罗马尼亚、

South Africa and Turkey have prepared or begun purchases of bonds of various kinds.

南非和土耳其都已经准备或开始购买各种债券。

Still more are contemplating it. Even in Brazil, congress has passed what it calls the "war budget" law,

还有更多国家仍在观望。即使是在巴西，国会已经通过了所谓的“战争预算”法，

amending the constitution to give the central bank more freedom to buy government bonds and other assets during this crisis.

修改了宪法，赋予中央银行更多的自由，能够在危机期间购买政府债券和其他资产。

The scale of emerging-market purchases is small so far in comparison with the Churchillian appetites of central banks in the rich world.

到目前为止，和发达国家央行的丘吉尔作风相比，新兴市场购买的规模较小。

Bank Indonesia, which already owns about 15% of tradable government bonds, may end up adding significantly to its holdings.

印尼银行已经持有约15%的可交易政府债券，最终可能会大幅增持。

The National Bank of Poland could end up owning bonds worth about 8.7% of GDP, according to UBS, a bank,

根据UBS银行，如果波兰央行买入该国经济刺激计划所需的全部额外债务，

if it buys all of the additional debt required to finance the country's stimulus plan.

那么该行最终可能会持有相当于GDP约8.7%的债券。

But no other central bank is poised to buy bonds worth more than 5% of GDP, UBS calculates.

但是据UBS银行的计算，没有其他央行会随时准备着买入超过GDP 5%的债券。

By comparison, the Federal Reserve already held Treasuries equivalent to about 10% of GDP at the start of 2020,

相比之下，在2020年年初，美联储已经持有相当于GDP10%的国债，

and is expected to roughly double that percentage over the course of the year.

且预计今年这一比例将增长一倍左右。

Critics nonetheless worry that QE is both more dangerous and less necessary in emerging markets than it is elsewhere.

尽管如此，批评者仍担心，与其它地区相比，QE在新兴市场更危险，也更没有必要。

It imperils the hard-won independence of monetary authorities that have struggled in the past to keep their distance from big-spending politicians.

这将危及金融当局来之不易的独立性。过去，金融当局一直挣扎着与开销过度的政客保持距离。