2020年经济学人 困境中的土耳其--困难重重(2)（在线收听）

The country's "gross" foreign assets (including gold) stood at over $87bn on May 12th.

5月12日，该国的“总”外国资产（包括黄金）超过870亿美元。

But on the other side of its balance-sheet, the central bank reports foreign liabilities worth $71.3bn.

但在资产负债表的另一边，央行报告的外债规模为713亿美元。

It has also entered into currency swaps with local lenders, obtaining dollars in exchange for lira on the condition that the transaction will be reversed in due course.

它还与当地的贷款银行进行货币互换，获取美元以换取里拉，条件是在适当的时候撤销交易。

Deduct those borrowed dollars from the total, and its net reserves have dipped below zero.

从总额中扣除这些借来的美元，其净储备已降至零以下。

Officials say they are seeking additional swap lines from foreign central banks.

官方表示，他们正在寻求从外国央行获得更多的货币互换额度。

The country already has an arrangement with China (worth $1bn) and another with Qatar (worth $5bn).

该国已经与中国（价值10亿美元）以及卡塔尔（50亿美元）达成了一项协议。

But it has little hope of obtaining a similar agreement with America's Federal Reserve.

但与美联储达成类似协议的希望渺茫。

A Fed policymaker recently pointed out that its swap lines are limited to countries that enjoy "mutual trust" with America.

美联储决策者近期指出，其货币互换额度仅限于与美国“相互信任”的国家。

The feelings that now prevail between Turkey and America are probably mutual, but hardly trustful.

现在土耳其和美国之间盛行的感觉可能是相互的，但很难信任彼此。

Turkey bounced back from the 2018 currency crisis by belatedly raising interest rates (and releasing the pastor).

通过姗姗来迟的加息（以及释放牧师），土耳其从2018年的货币危机中迅速恢复活力。

But the central bank's boss was fired last year by the country's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,

但去年，土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安解雇了央行行长，

who has governed with little restraint since winning new powers in a referendum in 2017.

自在2017年的全民公投中赢得新权势以来，他的执政几乎没有受到任何约束。

To revive growth and restore the president's popularity, the new central-bank governor has cut rates to 8.75%,

为了恢复经济增长和总统的受欢迎程度，新任央行行长将利率下调至8.75%，

more than two percentage points below the rate of inflation.

比通货膨胀率低了两个多百分点。

"When you have a negative real interest rate, that is not a recipe for currency stability anywhere," says Paul McNamara of GAM, an asset manager.

当实际利率为负时，这在任何地方都不是货币稳定的良方，”GAM的资产经理Paul McNamara说到。

The country has thus tried to strengthen growth, at the expense of weakening the currency.

因此，该国试图以削弱货币为代价，来加强经济增长。

And it has tried to fortify the currency—but at the expense of weakening the banks,

该国还试图巩固货币——但代价是削弱其银行，

which will eventually need some of their dollars back if they are to meet their own foreign-currency obligations,

如果银行要履行自己的外汇债务，那么它们最终需要收回一部分美元，

points out Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank.

智囊团美国外交关系协会的Brad Setser指出。

Turkey should "abandon this strategy", says Piotr Matys, a currency strategist at Rabobank.

土耳其应该“放弃这项策略”，荷兰拉博银行的货币策略分析师Piotr Matys说到。

"The most rational move would be to let the lira float freely and publish a package of reforms, ideally overseen by the IMF."

“最合理的做法是让里拉自由浮动，并公布一揽子改革方案，最好是由国际货币基金组织（IMF）监督。”

There is but one problem. Mr Erdogan wants nothing to do with the IMF. On that, he has been far from fickle.

只有一个问题。埃尔多安不想和IMF有任何关系。在这一点上，他一点也不善变。