美国国家公共电台 NPR 美国新冠肺炎死亡病例超过10万（在线收听）

One hundred thousand — that is how many people are now known to have been killed in the U.S. by a virus few had ever heard of just a few months ago. With less than 5% of the world's population, the U.S. accounts for nearly one-third of all known coronavirus fatalities. NPR's David Welna looks at this grim milestone and at where the American death toll may be headed.

10万人——这是目前已知被几个月前很少有人听说过的病毒杀死的美国公民数量。美国人口不到世界总人口的5%，但美国在已知冠状病毒死亡人数的占比接近三分之一。NPR新闻的大卫·威尔纳研究了这一严峻的里程碑以及美国死亡人数的走向。

DAVID WELNA, BYLINE: It took barely four months for the number of lives lost in the U.S. to the COVID-19 pandemic to reach the 100,000 mark.

大卫·威尔纳连线：新冠肺炎大流行仅用时4个月就导致美国死亡人数达到10万人大关。

CHRISTOPHER MURRAY: Back in March, I did not think this would be possible.

克里斯托弗·穆雷：3月份时，我还认为这是不可能的事情。

WELNA: As the head of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Christopher Murray was one of the first public health experts who tried predicting how the coronavirus would impact the U.S. He admits he missed the mark.

威尔纳：作为华盛顿大学健康指标和评估研究所所长，克里斯托弗·穆雷是试图预测冠状病毒会如何影响美国的首批公共卫生专家之一。他承认自已预测失败。

MURRAY: I really believed we as a nation, having taken the decision to put in place social distancing and accepted the economic hardship that that's creating, that we would've stuck to it to get transmission down to a very low level and therefore, we would not have gotten to a hundred thousand deaths.

穆雷：我之前真的相信，我们国家已经决定实施社交距离，并接受疫情引发的经济困难，我们会坚持下去，努力将传播降到极低水平，我们不会有10万人死亡。

WELNA: People have died in all 50 states and most U.S. territories, but the demographics of those deaths are skewed. Four out of five whose lives ended were 65 or older. Nearly twice as many men and boys were killed by COVID-19 as were women and girls. Kathleen Cagney directs the University of Chicago's Population Research Center. She says African Americans, Latinos and Native Americans all comprise a larger share of the dead than they do of the living.

威尔纳：美国所有50个州和大多数领地都出现了死亡病例，但死亡病例的人口统计有偏差。死亡病例中有五分之四是65岁以上（包括65岁）的老人。死于新冠肺炎的男性和男孩数量是女性和女孩的近两倍。凯瑟琳·卡格奈是芝加哥大学人口研究中心的负责人。她表示，非洲裔美国人、拉美裔和美洲原住民在死者中的占比都高于他们在总人口中的占比。

KATHLEEN CAGNEY: And if you look at the locations where people are disproportionately dying, they are in places that are lower-income. They are in places that likely have multiple residents in a single-unit space. They are disproportionately in institutional settings like nursing homes. They are places where people rely on public transit and rely on services like big-box locations where, by entry alone, you're putting yourself at risk.

凯瑟琳·卡格奈：如果你查看死亡病例不成比例的地方，你会发现那些都是低收入地区。很可能是一个单元空间内有多个居民的地方。养老院等设施的死亡人数也不成比例。还有那些人们依靠公共交通和大卖场服务的地方，仅进入就会让自已处于风险之中。

WELNA: There would likely not be a hundred thousand coronavirus deaths in the U.S. today if social distancing and stay-at-home measures had been adopted earlier. That's what a new Columbia University study finds. It estimates that had such measures gone into effect only a week sooner, nearly 36,000 deaths would have been averted. Jeffrey Shaman is one of that study's authors.

威尔纳：如果早些采取社交距离和居家令等措施，今天美国可能就不会有10万人死于冠状病毒。这是哥伦比亚大学的一项新研究得出的结论。该研究估计，这些措施仅提前实施1周，就可能避免近3.6万人死亡。杰弗里·沙曼是这项研究的作者之一。

JEFFREY SHAMAN: The lesson isn't what this means for the next time we have a pandemic with a new virus. The lesson is really, what are we doing with this virus as we move forward? But it isn't going anywhere and that we still have to contend with it.

杰弗里·沙曼：教训并不是这对我们下次遭遇新病毒爆发意味着什么。而是，我们在继续前进时，如何应对这一病毒？但它不会去任何地方，我们仍要与之抗争。

WELNA: Opening things up too quickly and not tamping down coronavirus flare-ups fast enough, Shaman warns, could mean more unnecessary deaths. Most of the dozen epidemiological models being tracked by federal officials are predicting the U.S. death toll rising above 140,000 by August, a number many Americans may find difficult to grasp.

威尔纳：沙曼警告称，过快开放以及在抑制冠状病毒爆发方面反应不够快，可能意味着更多不必要的死亡。联邦官员正在追踪的数十个流行病模型中，大多数都预测称，到8月美国的死亡人数将超过14万，这是许多美国人难以理解的数字。

ASHISH JHA: It's been stunning to me that we have had as much death as we've had with as little attention to all those deaths.

阿希什·贾哈：对我来说，令人震惊的是，我们的死亡人数如此之多，但我们对这些死亡的关注却很少。

WELNA: That's Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Initiative.

威尔纳：这是哈佛全球健康研究所主任阿希什·贾哈所说。

JHA: I think one of the reasons we've had so little attention to all of the deaths is because we've not had the kind of public mourning that comes with mass casualties like this — the funerals, the other events. But we're going to start seeing all of that now as the country begins to open up, and I think the weight of this calamity is going to become much more apparent to people in the upcoming days and weeks. So people are going to, I think, really come to grips with how awful the last couple of months have been.

贾哈：我认为，我们对所有死亡病例关注较少的一个原因是，我们没有那种伴随大规模伤亡而举行的公众哀悼，比如葬礼和其他活动。但随着国家开始开放，我们将看到这些活动，我认为在未来几天和几周，这场灾难的严重性将变得更加明显。因此，人们会真正意识到过去几个月有多糟糕。

WELNA: Should such a delayed reckoning come this day in late May when the death toll passed the 100,000 mark may or may not be remembered. Still, it won't likely be forgotten that these deaths came as quickly as they did and that so many killed by the virus were among the most vulnerable — all while the country tries getting back on its feet and, come November, decide who should occupy the White House next year.

威尔纳：在死亡人数超过10万人时，这类延迟的估算出现在5月下旬的今天，它可能会被记住，也可能不会被记住。不过，人们可能不会忘记，这些死亡出现得非常快，许多死于病毒的人是最脆弱人群，而此时美国正试图恢复元气，11月到来时，人们将决定明年由谁掌管白宫。

David Welna, NPR News.

NPR新闻，大卫·威尔纳报道。