2020年经济学人 贸易金融(1)（在线收听）

"In warm weather, fewer people wear socks," says Paul Rotstein of Gold Medal International, a wholesaler in New York.

“在温暖的天气，穿袜子的人更少，”纽约批发商Gold Medal International的Paul Rotstein说到。

People may not sport socks in the summer but his firm starts shipping them to retailers in July, ahead of the start of the school year.

夏天人们可能不穿运动袜，但他的公司在7月份开学前就开始把袜子运送给零售商。

There is, however, a big lag before he is paid. He normally uses trade-credit insurance to protect against the risk that his invoices go unpaid,

但在他拿到钱之前，时间上存在一个大的延迟。通常，他会购买贸易信用保险来防止货单不付款的风险，

but this year the insurers have slashed the amounts they are willing to cover by 50-90%.

但今年保险公司已经将他们愿意承保的金额削减了50至90%。

That leaves him with two options: shoulder huge credit risk himself, or walk away from orders.

他有两个选择：自己承担巨额信贷风险，或者放弃订单。

Mr Rotstein's dilemma underscores the role of trade finance, an unglamorous but critical bit of the financial system.

Rotstein的困境凸显了贸易金融的作用，这是金融体系中的一种不起眼却很关键的部分。

Many firms are owed a large amount by their customers in the form of receivables; in total the amount is worth around 20% of global GDP.

许多公司的客户都以应收账款的形式欠了公司一大笔钱；总计价值约为全球GDP的20%。

Some firms bear all the risk of nonpayment themselves. But others look to an insurer to protect them from default,

一些公司自己承担了拒付的所有风险。但其他公司指望保险公司保护他们不受违约影响，

or take out specialist loans backed by the invoices.

或是取得由货单支持的专项贷款。

Together these financing solutions underpin four-fifths of cross-border transactions, which are worth $15trn a year.

这些融资方案支撑了五分之四的跨国交易，价值15万亿美元一年。

Trade financiers face three problems created by the covid-19 pandemic (and the accompanying recession).

新冠疫情（以及伴随而来的经济衰退）给贸易融资商造成了三个问题。

It has disrupted normal operations by slowing the travel of documents; it has raised the risk that existing loans will sour;

文件传递速度的减慢扰乱了正常的运作；增加了现有贷款变成坏账的风险；

and it has made lenders more cautious about making new loans.

并且让银行对发放新贷款变得更加谨慎。

Take operational troubles first. Trade finance is notoriously paper-based.

首先是操作问题。众所周知，贸易金融以纸质档为基础。

Processing credit requires involved parties, from financiers and carriers to warehouse managers and customs officers,

处理信贷需要所涉及到的各方，从融资方和承运方到仓库经理和海关官员，

to exchange an average of 36 documents and 240 copies. But lockdowns trapped bits of paper in shut-down offices.

平均交换36份文件和240份复印件。但封锁将少量文件锁在了关闭的办公室里。

Printing became a palaver. When couriers eventually got to banks, they often found no one there.

打印成了空话。当快递员最终来到银行，他们通常发现那里一个人都没有。

Financiers have been forced to be nimble.

融资方被迫变得灵活。

Banks started accepting scanned signatures and documents.

银行开始接受扫描签名和文件。

A cargo-firm executive says it issued four times as many electronic bills of lading—receipts detailing goods on-board a ship—in March as it did in February.

一家货物公司的高管说，公司三月签发电子提单——说明船上货物的收据——的数量是二月的四倍。

That has helped limit delays, though some in the industry worry that rises in fraud could follow.

这有助于限制延期，尽管一些业内人士担心，随后可能会出现更多的欺诈行为。

A second concern is that the existing stock of credit turns sour. Trade finance has long been super-safe:

第二个担忧是现有的信贷存量会恶化。长期以来，贸易金融都超级安全：

annual default rates on letters of credit averaged 0.11% of transactions in 2008-18, less than a tenth of those for corporate loans.

2008年至2018年，信用证的年违约率平均为0.11%，不到企业贷款年违约率的十分之一。

But insurers already report payment delays. A rise in bankruptcies would make matters worse.

但保险公司已经通报了付款延迟的情况。破产公司数量的增加会使问题更加糟糕。

Coface, a trade-credit insurer, expects these to rise by a third worldwide by 2021.

贸易信贷保险公司科法斯集团预计，到2021年，数量将增长三分之一。