2020年经济学人 美国新冠肺炎激增(1)（在线收听）

United States

美国版块

The virus

病毒

Here it goes again

卷土重来

America is in the midst of an extraordinary surge of covid-19

美国正处于新冠肺炎异常激增的时期

On the same weekend that Florida smashed the single-day state record for cases of covid-19—reporting over 15,000 in one day— Disney World, the gargantuan theme park in Orlando, opened its doors to masked revellers. At the start of June, when cases and deaths looked to be declining after reaching the terrible milestone of 100,000 dead, America appeared to have managed its epidemic as well as Europe— neither superbly nor awfully. Both began opening then at roughly the same time.

佛罗里达州报告一日内新增新冠肺炎病例超过15000例，打破了新冠肺炎病例的单日纪录，就在这同一个周末——位于奥兰多的大型主题公园迪士尼世界向戴口罩的游客们敞开了大门。六月初，美国新冠肺炎死亡人数达到10万这个可怕的里程碑之后，新增病例数以及死亡人数似乎在下降，美国似乎和欧洲一样控制了疫情，控制过程既不出色，也没有很糟糕。两者几乎在同一时间进行开放的。

There was one difference, however. Some American states began reopening even as infection looked to be growing, as governors sought to cast off the shackles of locked-down life and a half-open economy. Bars crowded with thirsty patrons, restaurants reopened. There were some mass gatherings, whether to protest against racial injustice or to attend the president’s restarted rallies. Six weeks later, America is facing a secondary surge of cases quite unlike any other country. Having muddled along just about as well as other Western democracies, America now looks to be exceptional, in a disastrous way.

但也存在一点差异。即使感染人数似乎在增加，一些美国州还是开始重新开放，州长们试图摆脱封锁的生活以及半开放的经济的桎梏。酒吧里挤满了饥渴的顾客，餐馆重新开张了。也开始出现了一些群众集会，无论是抗议种族不平等，还是参加总统的重新开始举行竞选集会。六周后，与其他国家不同，美国面临着第二轮的病例激增的情况。美国之前和其他西方民主国家一起得过且过来捱过病毒，但现在看来，美国是个例外，并使美国处于灾难状态。

Some states, like California, which seemed to be early success stories in containing covid have also been beset by surges. On July 13th Gavin Newsom, the governor, announced that bars, indoor restaurants and cinemas would be closed to arrest the spread of the virus. On the same day schools in Los Angeles and San Diego announced that for 600,000 pupils the fall semester would begin online-only.

加利福尼亚州等的一些州似乎是遏制病毒感染的早期成功案例，但现在也受到了第二波病毒激增的侵扰。7月13日，州长加文·纽森宣布，酒吧、室内餐厅和电影院将关闭，以阻止病毒的传播。同一天，洛杉矶和圣地亚哥的学校宣布，秋季学期将只对60万名学生进行网上授课。

Predicting the course of the virus has proved remarkably difficult. When Ron DeSantis and Greg Abbott, the Republican governors of Florida and Texas, delayed stay-at-home orders in March they seemed to be inviting the virus to spread. That wave has now arrived as predicted, only three months late. Governors did not heed the warning signs—a rise in the share of tests coming back positive, reports of increased hospitalisations—until too late.

事实证明，预测病毒的传播过程非常困难。当佛罗里达州和德克萨斯州的共和党州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯和格雷格·阿博特在3月份推迟居家令时，他们似乎是在邀请病毒传播。这股浪潮现在如期而至，只晚了三个月。州长们并没有注意到这些警告信号——检测结果呈阳性的比例上升，关于住院人数增加的报道——意识到的时候一切都太迟了。