2020年经济学人 银行业戏剧的三幕(2)（在线收听）

This stockpile comes on top of the $20bn the lenders set aside in the first quarter.

这些银行在第一季度拨备了200亿美元。

The way to think about these provisions, said Jennifer Piepszak, JPMorgan's chief financial officer, is that "it is all in the outlook, because we are not seeing it today".

摩根大通的首席财务官Jennifer Piepszak说到，考虑这些拨备的方式是，“因为我们今天没有看到，所以一切都在展望中”。

Will the third act of the crisis see banks making big losses?

危机的第三幕会看到银行遭遇巨大损失吗？

A simple way of thinking about what will happen next is to split the institutions into three parts: the investment bank,

思考接下来会发生什么的一种简单方式是，将这些制度分成三个部分：投资银行，

which has performed exceptionally well so far; loan provisions, which have been exceptionally costly;

迄今表现异常出色；贷款损失准备金，其成本一直异常高昂；

and "everything else", which includes wealth and asset management. The residual bit of large banks' business has, overall, been remarkably steady.

以及“一切别的东西”，包括财富和资产管理。大银行的剩余业务整体而言非常稳定。

If provisions for loan losses and revenues from investment banking had both been flat on the year,

如果贷款损失准备金和投资银行业务收入均与去年持平，

net income would have fallen by an average of just 1% across Citi, JPMorgan and Wells.

那么花旗银行、摩根大通和富国银行的净收益平均仅下降1%。

The fate of banks' profitability seems likely therefore to depend on the fate of the investment-banking business, and of provisions for loan losses.

因此，银行利润率的命运要依赖于投资银行业务以及贷款损失准备金的命运了。

Investment-banking revenues seem set to slow, if they have not already done so.

投资银行的收入似乎要放缓了，如果他们还没有这样做的话。

Trading volumes have eased in June and early July from their highs in March and April.

与3月和4月的高点相比，6月和7月初的交易量有所减少。

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's chief executive, reckoned that trading revenues would "normalise" or even drop below normal later in the year.

摩根大通的CEO，杰米·戴蒙认为今年年末，交易收入将“正常化”，甚至低于正常水平。

Whether provisions prove sufficient or not is far from clear. They are based on a number of assumptions that are layered on top of each other.

贷款损失准备金是否准备充足尚不清楚。它们是建立在许多相互叠加的假设之上的。

One is about the path the virus takes. Another is how that evolution affects unemployment and economic growth.

一个是关于病毒的传播途径。另一个是这种进化对失业率和经济增长的影响。

Yet another concerns the size of any further fiscal stimulus, and how consumers and firms respond to it.

而另一个问题是任何进一步财政刺激的规模，以及消费者和企业对此的反应。

Banks' base case seems to be broadly in line with that of the Federal Reserve.

银行的基本预期似乎与美联储的大体一致。

The economy is expected to be smaller by the end of 2021 than it was at the end of 2019.

预计到2021年底，经济规模将小于2019年底。

The unemployment rate is expected to remain in double digits until the end of this year, before falling gradually.

预计失业率将在今年年底前保持两位数，然后才会逐渐下降。

But bank bosses emphasised the fog of uncertainty shrouding it all. "We are in a completely unpredictable environment," said Michael Corbat, Citi's chief executive.

但银行老板们强调的是笼罩着一切的不确定性。“我们都处在一切完全不可预测的环境中，”花旗银行的CEO Michael Corbat说到。

"In a normal recession unemployment goes up, delinquencies go up, charge-offs go up,

“在正常的经济衰退中，失业率走高、违约率增加、贷款冲销上升、

home prices go down, incomes go down, savings go down," said Mr Dimon. This time the usual relationships do not hold.

房价下跌、收入下降、存款减少，”Dimon说到。这一次，往常的关联不成立了。

Even as unemployment has jumped, for instance, incomes have risen.

例如，失业率上升了，收入也增加了。

If investment-banking revenues subside and banks keep having to add to provisions, losses may be on the cards in the third quarter.

如果投资银行收入减少，银行继续不得不增加贷款损失准备金，那么第三季度可能出现亏损。

Wells Fargo was the only bank to make a loss in the second. That reflects its relatively small investment bank, as well as its special situation—

富国银行是唯一一家在第二季度出现亏损的银行。这反映出它的投资银行相对较小，以及其环境特殊——

it still operates under an asset cap imposed by regulators that has constrained its growth, even as other lenders have ballooned.

它仍在在监管机构设定的资产上限下运营，这限制了它的增长，即使其他银行已经膨胀。

But another, rosier scenario is possible: that government stimulus continues to keep delinquencies down, and banks end up with mountains of spare capital.

但另一种更乐观的情况是有可能的：政府的刺激措施继续让拖欠率保持低水平，并且银行最终拥有了堆积如山的闲置资金。

That would be welcome news for shareholders. Even as the S&P 500 benchmark index has recovered, bank shares are a third lower than at the start of the year.

这对股东来说是个好消息。即便标准普尔500指数已经回升，银行股份仍比年初低三分之一。

But the happy scenario also relies on the third act being the final one. With covid-19 cases rising, that is looking increasingly unlikely.

但这个乐观的情况也依赖于第三幕是最后一幕。随着新冠病例的增加，这种可能性似乎越来越小。