2020年经济学人 巴托比专栏--判断力问题(2)（在线收听）

The degree of judgment required tends to increase as people take on more responsibility. Those with routine tasks generally have limited scope for judgment. Line supervisors have some discretion. For a chief executive, the proportion of decisions involving judgment is high. Deciding not to take action is also a judgment with potentially serious consequences (for example, “I won’t get vaccinated” or “I won’t pay my bills”). The world is full of people whose lack of judgment brought their careers or personal life crashing down. Many made the common mistake of assuming everything was fine.

人们承担的责任越多，对判断力的需求程度往往就越大。那些完成常规任务的人们通常判断力有限。生产线主管具有一定的判断能力。而对于首席执行官来说，涉及判断力的决策占比很高。决定不采取行动同样也是一种可能产生严重后果的判断（比如说，“我不会接种疫苗”或者“我不会支付账单”）。这个世界上到处都是缺乏判断力的人，他们的事业或个人生活一落千丈。很多人都犯了常见的错误，认为一切都很好。

Some people think that good judgment is innate. Sir Andrew accepts that some individuals are born with the ability to listen, be self-aware and better understand other people: all qualities that make good judgment easier. People with good judgment tend to have a breadth of experiences and relationships that enables them to recognise parallels or analogies that others miss. The ability to be detached, both intellectually and emotionally, is also a vital component.

有些人认为良好的判断力是与生俱来的。安德鲁爵士承认，有些人生来就具备倾听、自知之明以及理解他人的能力，而这些品质让人更容易做出良好的判断。具备良好判断力的人往往拥有丰富的经验和人际关系，这使他们能够认识到其他人忽略的事情的相似之处。在智力和情感上能够保持超然也是良好判断力的重要组成部分。

Others may have the wrong sort of characteristics; a tendency to ignore others, stick to rules irrespective of context, rush into action without reflection and struggle to make up their minds.Many leaders make bad judgments because they unconsciously filter the information they receive or are not sufficiently critical of what they hear or read. The danger is that people ignore insights that they don’t want to hear, a tendency that can increase with age.

另一些人可能有着不利于做出良好判断的性格特征；比如无视他人的偏好、不顾环境墨守成规、不加思考就仓促行动，难以下定决心。许多领导人之所以做出错误的判断，是因为他们无意识地过滤自己接收到的信息，或者对自己听到或读到的信息没有进行足够的批判。危险之处在于人们会忽略自己不想听到的见解，这种趋势随着年龄增长会愈发明显。

As artificial intelligence gets used for more and more routine tasks in the service sector, exercising judgment may be one area where humans retain an edge over machines. This is far from certain, however. What people perceive as good judgment may stem from the ability to spot certain cues in the environment. This ability may be unconscious, just as a dog can catch a Frisbee in mid-air without knowing how to calculate wind speed and air resistance.

随着人们越来越将人工智能应用于服务行业的日常工作，做出判断或许是人类能够相对机器仍旧保持优势的一个领域。然而，这还远非定论。人们认为良好的判断力可能源于在环境中发现某些线索的能力。这种能力可能是无意识的，就像狗能在不知道如何计算风速和空气阻力的情况下接住半空中的飞盘一样。

With enough practice, machines may be able to recognise these implicit cues and thus display the equivalent of good judgment. But then, perhaps humans can be taught, too. In the long run one of the trickiest aspects of human judgment may be knowing precisely when to let machines take decisions and when to leave it to people.

经过足够的练习，机器也许能够识别这些隐含的暗示，从而做出良好的判断。但到了那时，也许人类也可以通过教导获得良好的判断力。从长远来看，关于人类判断力，其中最棘手的一个问题可能就是准确地知道什么时候让机器来做决定，什么时候听从人类的选择。