商业周刊:2050万美国人失业预示着更多的痛苦即将来临(2)（在线收听）

The pandemic's initial tremors hit those least able to absorb the blow,

这场流行病最初的震动对那些最无力承受打击的人造成重创，

with April's job losses concentrated in lower-wage labor, from hospitality to retail and restaurants.

4月份的失业集中于酒店业、零售业和餐饮业中，赚取低工资的劳动者。

In May, layoffs will extend further into white-collar positions, according to Lydia Boussour of Oxford Economics.

牛津经济学院（Oxford Economics）的丽迪娅·布索表示，5月份，裁员将进一步扩大到白领阶层。

The April report "really reflects the first-round effect of the Covid-19 crisis,

她说，4月份的报告“真实地反映了新冠肺炎疫情危机的第一轮影响，

so all these industries that are really on the front line were directly hit by the lockdowns and fear," she said.

因此所有这些真正处于一线的行业，都直接受到了封锁和恐惧的打击”。

In May, the job losses will likely be in the "second-round" of companies including more professional positions, corporate offices, and higher-earners, she said.

她说，今年5月，失业可能会出现在“第二轮”公司中，包括更专业的职位、集团办公室和高收入者。

With stimulus checks from the U.S. government making up a smaller share of income for such people,

由于美国政府的经济刺激计划，在这些人的收入中所占份额较小，

the deepening employment hole could fan calls for a fourth round of fiscal aid from Congress -- on top of trillions of dollars already dispatched.

就业缺口的加深可能会促使国会呼吁在已经发放的数万亿美元的基础上，再提供第四轮财政援助。

The Federal Reserve is likely to keep pumping money into the economy while leaving interest rates near zero for an extended period.

美联储可能继续向经济体注入资金，同时将利率长期维持在接近零的水平。

There's also risk in coming months that a recession will morph into a deeper depression,

未来几个月，如果第二波感染在一些州重新开放后再次终止商业活动，经济衰退也有可能演变成更严重的经济萧条，

or a prolonged and sustained downturn -- if a second wave of infections closes down business again after some states reopen.

或是长期持续的衰退。根据穆迪公司的分析，这种可能性越来越大，

That's becoming more and more likely, according to Moody's Analytics, which projects a peak unemployment rate in May of about 17%.

该公司预计5月份失业率将达到17%左右的峰值。

Stock investors have largely looked past the dire economic news, with equities rallying since late March.

股市投资者基本上忽略了这一可怕的经济消息，股市自3月下旬以来一直在反弹。

The S&P 500 was higher on Friday and on track for a 3% weekly gain, while the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose and the Bloomberg dollar index pared its decline.

标普500指数上周五上涨，有望实现3%的周涨幅，而基准10年期美国国债收益率上升，彭博美元指数回落。

What Bloomberg's Economists Say

彭博社经济学家们的说法

"The extent of job losses is consistent with Bloomberg Economics' modeling of a near 40% contraction in real GDP for the quarter.

“失业的程度与彭博社经济学家们对本季度实际GDP收缩近40%的预测一致。

While layoffs were concentrated in sectors such as restaurants, hospitality and leisure, losses occurred in nearly all subcategories.

虽然裁员集中在餐饮、酒店和休闲等行业，但几乎所有子类别都出现了亏损。

The breadth of job losses is a jarring signal of the massive challenge of restarting vast swaths of the economy -- not just a few sectors

失业率的大幅下降是一个令人不安的信号，表明重新大范围启动济，而不仅是重启少数行业存在的巨大挑战。

-- and it therefore serves as a stark indication that a 'V-shaped' recovery will not be possible."

因此，这是一个明显的迹象，表明“V型”复苏是不可能的。”