2020年经济学人 美国犯罪数据激增?(2)（在线收听）

There are some exceptions to this decline. Non-residential burglaries spiked in early June, coinciding with the peak of the George Floyd protests, when looting of retail stores was common. Domestic violence has also probably increased. Data are sparse because only a small fraction of victims report being abused, and because police departments can be slow to share what numbers they do have. Research by Emily Leslie and Riley Wilson of Brigham Young University finds that calls related to domestic violence in March to May rose by an average of 7.5% in 14 cities compared with the same period in the previous year.

犯罪率的下降也存在一些例外。6月初，非住宅盗窃案频发，恰逢乔治·弗洛伊德抗议活动的高峰，当时抢劫零售店的案件十分普遍。家庭暴力的比例也可能增长。相关数据稀少，因为只有一小部分受害者报告受到虐待，而且警察部门分享掌握的数据的过程可能会很缓慢。杨百翰大学的艾米莉·莱斯利和莱利·威尔逊展开了一项研究，调查发现，与去年同期相比，14个城市在3月至5月期间，与家庭暴力有关的来电平均上升了7.5%。

Alarmingly, murder also seems to be on the rise. So far this year, homicides in big cities appear to be up by around 20% against the average for the same period in 2015-19. Interpreting these numbers is tricky, since murder rates can vary a lot from year to year. An Economist analysis of FBI statistics finds that the total number of homicides in big cities fluctuated from year to year by an average of roughly 20% between 1990 and 2018. Murders in Chicago this year may be up by 51% through July 20th, compared with the same period in 2019, but by only 9% on 2017. Except in a handful of the cities in Mr Abrams’s data set, homicide rates did not change much relative to prior years after government shutdown orders were put in place.

令人担忧的是，谋杀案似乎也在增加。今年以来，大城市的凶杀案犯罪率似乎比2015-19年同期的平均犯罪率上升了20%左右。很难解释这些数据，因为谋杀率每年都会发生很大的变化。经济学家对联邦调查局统计数据的分析发现，1990年至2018年间，大城市的谋杀案总数每年平均波动约20%。与2019年同期相比，今年到7月20日为止，芝加哥的谋杀案可能增长51%，但在2017年仅增长了9%。几个阿勃拉姆斯的数据集中的城市则是例外，在当地政府下达封锁命令后，谋杀率和前几年相比并没有太大变化。

One city which has seen a marked increase in violence in recent weeks is New York. Chris Herrmann of the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, a former analyst with the New York Police Department (NYPD), says this may be partly because many police officers who would normally patrol the outer boroughs have been redirected to Manhattan, where many of the protests are occurring. He also notes that Covid-19 has forced jails and prisons to release inmates, including many convicted of, or awaiting trial for, violent offences.

在纽约市，最近几周的暴力事件明显增加。约翰·杰伊刑事司法学院的克里斯·赫尔曼曾是纽约警察局（NYPD）的分析师，他说，可能部分原因是许多平时在外行政区巡逻的警察被调到曼哈顿，而那里发生了多次议活动。他还指出，新冠肺炎已经迫使监狱释放囚犯，其中包括许多因暴力犯罪被定罪或等待审判的囚犯。