2020年经济学人 美国犯罪数据激增?(3)（在线收听）

The police usually benefit from a natural dividend in the autumn. Homicide rates tend to fall in September as the weather cools and teenagers head back to classrooms. But Mr Herrmann fears the country might not be as lucky this year. Many schools are unlikely to reopen. Courts have been shuttered, making it harder for prosecutors to stop gang violence. Michael LiPetri, chief of crime-control strategies at the NYPD, says the share of shootings involving gang members in his city has more than doubled since last year. And, as Jens Ludwig, director of the University of Chicago Crime Lab, points out, America’s covid-induced recession will take a serious toll on city finances, putting further pressure on the budgets of police departments.

警察通常在秋天会自然而然地获益。九月份，随着天气转暖，青少年重返教室，凶杀率往往会下降。但赫尔曼担心，美国今年可能没有那么幸运。许多学校不太可能重开。法庭已经关闭，这使检察官更难阻止帮派暴力。纽约警察局犯罪控制策略警监迈克尔·利佩特里表示，自去年以来，纽约涉及帮派成员的枪击案数量增加了一倍多。而且，正如芝加哥大学犯罪实验室主任詹斯·路德维希所指出的那样，美国由新冠肺炎引发的经济衰退将会使城市财政损失惨重，也加重了警察部门预算方面的压力。

Drastically cutting police funding without adequately investing in other areas, such as social work, would be risky. A recent working paper by Tanaya Devi and Roland Fryer, both economists at Harvard University, analysed the impact of state and federal investigations into police departments. It found that, though most probes had a small positive impact in reducing crime, “viral” ones prompted by national scrutiny appear to cause the police to retreat too far. When Freddie Gray was killed by the Baltimore police in 2015, the national media and federal investigators poured into the city. Police officers, fearful for their jobs, pulled back. They stopped fewer people in the streets and arrested fewer suspects. And homicides rose.

如果不对社会工作等其他领域进行充分投资，大幅削减警察经费将存在风险。哈佛大学经济学家Tanaya Devi和Roland Fryer在最近发表的一份工作报告中，分析了州和联邦调查对警察部门的影响。报告发现，尽管大多数的州和联邦调查对减少犯罪的积极影响很小，但由国家审查引发的“病毒性”调查似乎会导致警方大幅退却。2015年，当弗雷迪·格雷被巴尔的摩警方击毙时，全国媒体和联邦调查人员涌入该市。警察们担心会对自己的工作产生影响，于是退却了。他们在街上拦住的人少了，逮捕的嫌疑犯也少了。而凶杀案增多了。