国外媒体:业界预期亚洲旅游业有望2010年复苏（在线收听）

The immediate outlook for Asia's tourism industry remains bleak as most major markets report sharp falls in visitor arrivals. There are hopes a recovery will come in 2010. 

因为大部分主要旅游市场的旅游人数锐减，亚洲旅游业短期前景仍不乐观。旅游业有望在2010年复苏。

The Pacific Asia Travel Association expects visitor arrivals in Asia to fall by more than four percent this year, because the global economic slump and concerns about the swine flu discourage travelers. 

亚太旅游协会预计，受全球经济低迷和猪流感的影响，今年到亚洲旅游的人数会减少4%以上。

Greg Duffell, president of PATA, says rising unemployment in many countries are causing the decline. 

亚太旅游协会主席杜弗尔说，许多国家不断上升的失业率导致了旅游人数下滑。

"The majority of countries are still showing negative growth and the majority are not showing any sign of a turnaround at this point in time they're looking for," Duffell said. 

他说：“大部分国家仍然显示负增长。而且目前他们寻找的转机还没有出现。”

Many Asia tourism markets continue to see dramatic declines in traveler numbers. Singapore reports arrivals down more than 30 percent from a year ago. In South Korea, arrivals have declined as much as 40 percent some months this year. 

许多亚洲旅游市场的旅游者人数仍在减少。新加坡报告说，旅游者人数比去年降低了30%以上。在韩国，今年某几个月的跌幅达到了40%。

In Japan, foreign visitor arrivals in May fell by more than 30 percent. 

在日本，5月外国旅游者的数量下降了超过30%。

John Koldowski, PATA's director of strategic intelligence, says lower economic growth forecasts combined with a loss of business confidence and the spreading H1N1 flu virus have hurt both the business and leisure travel markets. 

亚太旅游者协会的战略情报中心主任张科德说，对经济增长预测偏低，商业信心的丧失以及H1N1病毒的传播都对商务旅游和休闲旅游造成了伤害。

"We've actually got the economic situation out here - we've got this pincer movement with things like H1N1 coming in from the other side which is compounding that from a tourism perspective," Koldowski said. "It may not affect the GDP, but from a travel and tourism point of view all of these things make the traveller very, very nervous." 

他说：“实际上，我们腹背受敌。一方面，经济形势就摆在那里。另一方面，从旅游的角度来说，H1N1病毒又加了进来。也许它不会影响国内生产总值。但是从一个旅行和旅游的角度来看，这些事情让旅行者非常非常紧张。”

In Thailand, where foreign tourists contribute about six percent of gross domestic product, the number of arrivals is expected to drop to 12 million this year, instead of the 14 million originally expected. 

在泰国，外国旅游者贡献了约6%的国内生产总值。今年，旅游者人数预计会减少到1200万，而不是之前预测的1400万。

Thailand's tourism industry also has been hurt by the country's political protests and insurgent violence in the southern provinces. Protesters closed Bangkok's airports for a week late last year, and in April forced the cancellation of a regional leaders meeting. 

泰国的政治抗议和南部省份的叛乱暴力活动也伤害了泰国旅游业。去年年底，抗议者将曼谷机场关闭一周并在4月强行取消了地区领导人会面。

PATA's chairman, Phornsiri Manoharn, says tourists have been scared away. 

亚太旅游协会理事会主席马诺哈恩说：

"This year I consider the worst I ever seen in the industry for the past 39 years because it combined the southern problem and the political unrest all the time," Phornsiri said. "And the thing that stuck in people's mind about the closing of the airport, and also the financial crisis and H1N1, too." 

“我认为，今年旅游业是我见过的过去39年来最糟糕的一年。因为今年既有南部问题又有持续不断的政治骚乱。同时，机场关闭这件事在人们脑中挥之不去，还要加上金融危机和H1N1流感。”

Travel industry analysts hope that growing business confidence and the expanding domestic markets of China and India will help revive the industry. 

旅游业的分析家们希望，不断增长的商业信心和逐渐扩大的中国和印度的国内市场能够帮助旅游业复苏。

PATA's Koldowski says Asia's travel market should grow by about four percent in 2010 but that will still be half the growth rate of two years ago. 

亚太旅游协会的张科德说，亚洲旅游市场估计到2010年可以增长约4%。但是这一数字只是两年前增长率的一半。