2020年经济学人 加州:危机未平,野火又起(3)（在线收听）

Such change has not worked its destruction unaided. Mistaken policies have made the forests more vulnerable, especially the decades-long suppression of wildfires. Fires thin out the dense, flammable undergrowth. Preventing them—as a study in Science pointed out as long ago as 2006—increases what is called fuel loading and turns forests into tinder boxes. Frank Lake of the US Forest Service talks of a tipping point: “There is too much fuel loading; it is too warm and the probability of ignition is greater.” That summarises what has happened this season.

气候变化并非是造成破坏的唯一罪魁祸首。错误的政策使森林变得更加脆弱，特别是长达数十年的野火扑救上的错误。野火使原本茂密、易燃的树丛变得稀疏。早在2006年，一项科学研究就指出，扑救野火会增加所谓的燃料负荷，并将森林变成火药箱。美国林业局的弗兰克·莱克谈到了一个问题：“燃料负荷太多；天气太热，引发野火的可能性更大。”这句话很好地总结了发生在此次野火季的事情。

Considering the vastness of the fires and their position —on the edge of the Bay Area, home to more than 7m people— the cost in human life could have been far greater. Seven people had died by August 25th. Californians have learned the lessons of previous fires, such as the one in 2018 which destroyed the town of Paradise and killed 85 people: evacuate early. Southerners fleeing Laura, a mighty hurricane that hit the Gulf coast on August 27th, will follow the same guidance.

考虑到野火的巨大规模以及发生位置 ——在海湾地区的边缘，有700多万户居民——付出的人类生命的代价可能会更惨重。截至8月25日，已有7人死亡。加州人已经吸取了以往野火灾害的教训，比如2018年那场野火摧毁了天堂镇，造成85人死亡，人们学会了要尽早撤离。8月27日，强烈的飓风劳拉袭击墨西哥湾海岸，南加州人遵循同样的教训进行撤离，逃离了危机。

So far, the responses of state and federal governments have held up fairly well in California, despite ritual hazing by the Democratic governor and Republican president. Donald Trump declared a major disaster, speeding federal funds to those who had lost their homes. And this week firefighters seemed to be making progress.

到目前为止，加州政府和联邦政府都应对的不错，尽管民主党州长和共和党总统例行针锋相对。唐纳德·特朗普宣称这是一场重大灾难，并加快了发放联邦资金的进程，以援助那些失去家园的人。本周，消防员们似乎取得了进展。

Still, California’s many crises— covid-19, fires and rolling blackouts—are overlapping, which hampers a long-term response. Early this year, the governor proposed spending $100m to make existing houses more fire-resistant (replacing wooden shingles with tiles, for example). He had to suspend the programme because of a state budget crisis caused by covid-19.

尽管如此，加州还是同时面临新冠肺炎疫情、野火、连续断电的多重危机，这阻碍了长期应对。今年早些时候，加州州长提议投入1亿美元，加强现有房屋的耐火性（比如说用瓷砖代替木瓦）。由于新冠肺炎造成的国家预算危机，他不得不中止这项计划。

In 2008 another condor chick was caught in a fire and miraculously survived. She was, inevitably, renamed Phoenix. Iniko, alas, need not be renamed. Her name means “born in troubled times”.

2008年，另一只秃鹰幼崽在一场野火中奇迹幸存。她不可避免地更名为Phoenix（凤凰）。唉，伊尼科不需要改名。因为她名字的含义是“生于乱世”。