2020年经济学人 爆炸后的黎巴嫩保险公司(2)（在线收听）

Whatever the final bill, some Lebanese insurers will struggle to pay it.

不管最终账单是多少，一些黎巴嫩保险公司将将难以支付。

Written premiums fell by 4% in 2019 as an economic crisis forced some policyholders to drop their coverage.

由于经济危机迫使一些投保人减少了他们的保险范围，2019年的承保保费下跌4%。

This year has been worse. Several insurers are subsidiaries of the country's insolvent banks.

今年更加糟糕。几家保险公司是该国倒闭银行的子公司。

Arope, one of the ten biggest non-life insurers, is owned by Blom, Lebanon's second-largest bank, which saw net profits fall 77% last year.

Arope是十大非寿险公司之一，隶属于黎巴嫩第二大银行Blom，该银行去年的净利润下降了77%。

Other lenders in the country, such as Byblos and Credit Libanais, also offer insurance products.

该国其他银行，如Byblos和Credit Libanais，也提供保险产品。

Foreign reinsurers will be stuck with part of the bill. Hannover Re expects to book a "major loss", an event with more than 10m euros ($11.8m) in claims.

国外再保险公司将不得不承担部分费用。汉诺威再保险预计将计入“重大损失”，索赔金额超过1000万欧元（1180万美元）。

Sven Atloff, a member of its board, says it is still impossible to tell whether the total cost will be in the low tens of millions of euros, or even exceed 100m euros.

其董事会成员Sven Atloff表示，目前还无法确定总成本是否会在数千万欧元以下，或者甚至超过1亿欧元。

The firm's net income was already down by 39% in the first half of 2020 because of covid-related losses. Munich Re also expects a sizeable hit.

受新冠疫情影响，该公司的净收入在2020年上半年已经下降了39%。慕尼黑再保险公司预计也会受到相当大的冲击。

For Lebanese firms there is an added wrinkle: whether they can get the cash to pay claims, many of which must be paid in dollars.

对黎巴嫩的公司而言，还有一个问题：不管他们有没有现金支付索赔，其中很多都必须以美元来支付。

(Though still officially pegged to the greenback, the Lebanese pound has lost 80% of its value on the black market in recent months.)

（尽管黎巴嫩镑仍然与美元挂钩，但近几个月来在黑市上其已经贬值了80%。）

A banking crisis that began in October has left dollars scarce; foreign currency withdrawals are tightly restricted.

10月份开始一场银行业危机使得美元稀缺；外汇取款受到严格限制。

The central bank may have to stop subsidising wheat and fuel imports in November because it is close to its minimum required reserves.

央行或许不得不在11月停止对小麦和燃料进口的补贴，因为其已经接近了该国最低储备金。

Several policyholders say their insurers have offered to pay them with bank cheques, which can still be freely deposited.

一些投保人表示，他们的保险公司已经提出用银行支票支付，这些支票仍然可以自由存储。

But the cheques lose up to two-thirds of their value once withdrawn from banks in devalued local currency,

但一旦这些支票以贬值的本国货币从银行取出，其价值就会损失至多三分之二，

typically converted at a "quasi-official" rate, and converted to dollars on the black market.

这些支票通常以“ 半官方”汇率兑换，并在黑市上兑换成美元。

After months or years of delay, the policies of many of the blast's victims may give them a payment barely worth the paper they are written on.

经过数月或数年拖延后，很多这场爆炸的受害者的保险单给他们的赔偿或许仅相当于这张纸的价值。