2020年经济学人全球贸易—潦而不倒(1)（打印版）

In Quentin Tarantino's "Kill Bill: Volume 2", an action drama, the protagonist, played by Uma Thurman, punches her way out of a coffin.

在昆汀·塔伦蒂诺的动作片《杀死比尔2》中，由乌玛·瑟曼饰演的主角打破棺材而出。

Global trade in goods has performed a similar death-defying stunt during the covid-19 pandemic.

在新冠疫情期间，全球货物贸易也上演了类似的惊人之举。

In April things looked dismal. Some predicted global trade would slump by more than 30% this year, compared with 2019.

在四月，情况看起来很糟糕。一些人预测，与2019年相比，今年全球贸易将骤降超过30%。

But after a gut-wrenching spring, trade volumes recorded their biggest monthly rise on record in June, the last month of available data.

但在极度痛苦的春天过后，6月份贸易额出现了有记录以来最大的单月增幅（六月是有数据可查的最后一个月）

Oxford Economics, a consultancy, predicts that in 2020 as a whole volumes may drop by 10%.

咨询机构牛津经济研究院预测，2020年整体贸易额可能下跌10%。

This resilience has defied recent experience, as well as expectations.

这种回弹与最近的经历和预期都背道而驰。

In 2009, when global GDP fell by 0.1% in the final year of the financial crisis, trade plunged by a whopping 13%.

2009年，全球GDP在金融危机的最后一年下跌0.1%，而贸易则大幅下降了13%。

This year the IMF forecasts that global GDP could fall by 4.9%, ie, 50 times more than in 2009. So why will the hit to trade probably be smaller?

今年，IMF预计全球GDP可能下跌4.9%，即是2009年的50倍。所以为什么对贸易的冲击可能会更小呢？

After the financial crisis trade volumes fell much further than GDP mostly

金融危机后，贸易额的降幅远远超过了GDP

because people stopped buying heavily traded durable goods, such as cars.

因为人们不再购买汽车等大量交易的耐用品。

But in the current crisis, untraded domestic services have been harder hit than they were back then.

但在目前的危机中，非贸易国内服务业受到的冲击比当时更大。

Going to the cinema or a restaurant halted during lockdown.

在封锁期间，不能去电影院或餐厅。

Buying an imported fridge did not. That has made the drop in trade relative to GDP smaller.

但仍可以购买进口冰箱。这使得贸易相对于GDP的下降幅度有所减小。

Moreover, the robustness of the world's production apparatus has underpinned trade flows.

此外，世界生产设备的强健支撑了贸易流动。

Covid-19 froze supply chains, but in Asia at least they swiftly started to thaw.

新冠疫情冻结了供应链，但至少在亚洲，供应链迅速开始解冻。

According to Simon Evenett of the University of St Gallen in Switzerland,

根据瑞士圣加仑大学的Simon Evenett，

the number of trade restrictions applied on medical goods and medicine since the start of the crisis peaked in April,

自危机开始以来，对医疗产品和药品实施的贸易限制量在4月份达到峰值，

and has since fallen by 15%. Even more importantly, lockdowns were lifted more quickly than expected,

此后下降了15%。更重要的是，封锁解除的比预期快，

allowing exporting powerhouses like China and Germany to reopen factories and boost output.

这让像中国和德国这样的出口大国能够重开工厂，提高产量。

Pandemic-induced demand gave trade in some products extra pep.

疫情导致的需求给某些产品的贸易带来了额外的刺激。

America's imports of protective equipment tripled between March and July, calculates Panjiva, a trade-data company.

根据贸易数据公司磐聚网的计算，美国防护性设备进口量在三月和六月间增加了两倍。