财富杂志 为什么新兴市场的股票值得买入(1)（在线收听）

For a chorus of the leading voices in investing, it was the monster rally whose time had come.

对于投资界的领军人物而言，大牛市的时代已经到来。

For about five years, a group of sages, including value-investing boldface names Jeremy Grantham, Mark Mobius, and Rob Arnott,

在大约五年的时间里，包括价值投资界知名人物Jeremy Grantham、Mark Mobius以及Rob Arnott在内的

kept pronouncing that shares of companies in emerging markets offered the world's rarest blend of attractions:

一群大佬一直宣称，新兴市场中的公司股票具备世界上最罕见的吸引力：

deep-discount prices compared with U.S. equities, cheap currencies,

与美国股市相比，其价格大幅折让、货币贬值，

and the prospect of robust growth driven by a burgeoning population of youthful middle-class workers and consumers—

以及由不断增长的新兴中产阶级和消费者驱动的强劲增长的前景——

all factors that long promised a powerful comeback in the beaten-down sector.

长期以来，所有这些因素都预示着这个不被看好的行业将强势回归。

Two years ago, their prophecies came true. Valuations in emerging markets—

两年前，他们的预言成真。新兴市场——

a group of some 25 countries defined by low but growing per capita incomes, rapid industrialization, and zigzagging currencies—took flight.

约有25个国家，其定义是人均收入低但仍在增长，工业化迅速，货币走势曲折——的估值大幅上升。

In the 24 months beginning in late January 2016,

在自2016年1月起的24个月内，

shares in the benchmark MSCI emerging markets index surged 85%, beating the S&P 500 by 31 percentage points.

基准MSCI新兴市场指数飙升85%，比标准普尔500指数高出31个百分点。

Despite the sprint, emerging markets looked as if they had plenty of room to run.

尽管经历了冲刺期，但新兴市场似乎还有充足的运作空间。

Not only did they still boast a lot more earnings per dollars paid for equities in the developed world,

他们不仅吹嘘在发达国家，每一美元支付给股票的收益要高得多，

they also now benefited from what they had long lacked: surging optimism and powerful momentum.

而且现在还从长期或缺的东西中获益：高涨的乐观情绪以及强大的动力。

Then the revival suddenly collapsed. After peaking on Jan. 26, the MSCI dropped 22%, seven times the fall in the S&P 500,

然后复兴突然崩塌。1月26日达到巅峰后，MSCI下跌22%，是标准普尔500指数跌幅的七倍，

crushed by negative news about a looming U.S. trade war with China and debt crises in Turkey and Argentina.

这是受到了即将爆发的中美贸易战，以及土耳其和阿根廷债务危机等负面消息的影响。

But for investors rummaging for bargains, the drop is a gift.

但对于搜寻便宜货的投资者来说，跌幅是一件礼物。

It has sent the gap in valuations between stocks in developed and developing countries back to near-record levels,

这使得发达和发展中国家股票之间的估值差距回到接近纪录水平，

making the always-speculative index particularly attractive. As Arnott, chief of Research Affiliates,

让这个总是投机的指数尤其具有吸引力。锐联资产管理公司是一家为互惠基金

a firm that designs and manages indexes for mutual funds and ETFs, told Fortune: "Emerging markets are the buy of the decade."

和ETF设计和管理指数的一家公司，其负责人告诉《财富》：“新兴市场是这十年最值得买入的。”

In a letter to clients, Grantham, cofounder of asset-management giant GMO, said he was putting half his family's retirement funds into the sector.

在致客户的一封信中，资产管理巨头GMO的联合创始人Grantham表示，他将一半的家庭退休基金都投入了这个行业。

As for Mobius, a pioneer of emerging-markets investing who retired earlier in the year from Franklin Templeton Investments,

至于Mobius，他是新兴市场投资的先驱，今年年初从富兰克林邓普顿投资公司退休，

he's raising more than $500 million to take advantage of what he calls the "phenomenal opportunity" caused by the recent turmoil in the sector.

他正在筹集5亿多美元，以利用最近该行业动荡带来的“非凡机会”。

Emerging markets offer a classic high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity.

新兴市场提供了一个经典的高风险、高回报的投资机会。

The countries that fit the description represent 40% of the world's economic output as measured by gross domestic product

按照国内生产总值衡量，符合描述的国家占世界经济产出的40%，

but just 12% of global stock market value. The potential for high growth is associated with countries

但只占全球股市价值的12%。高增长的潜力与从严重依赖农业和原材料出口

moving rapidly from heavy dependence on agricultural and raw-materials exports into finished goods manufacturing and services.

迅速转向制成品制造业和服务业的国家有关。

That said, higher growth prospects come with greater volatility, especially owing to high political, currency, and other risks.

但更高的增长前景伴随着更大的波动性，特别是由于较高的政治、汇率和其他风险。

This explains the valuation/GDP mismatch, and it's also why emerging-markets investment strategies fall in and out of favor so frequently.

这就解释了估值和GDP之间的错误搭配，也是新兴市场投资策略频繁起起落落的原因。