财富杂志 为什么新兴市场的股票值得买入(2)（在线收听）

So while experts pursuing emerging-markets investment strategies insist they present a buying opportunity,

所以虽然追求新兴市场投资策略的专家坚称，他们提供了一个买入机会，

to commonsense civilians and other skeptics, they look and feel like a trap. Who's right?

但对普通民众和其他持怀疑态度的人来说，它们看起来且感觉上都像是一个陷阱。谁是对的？

For the sake of prudence, let's start with the considerable risks.

为了谨慎起见，让我们先从重要风险说起。

These involve understanding this year's big selloff and acknowledging that by betting on the likes of China, Mexico, and India,

其中涉及了解今年的大抛售，以及承认通过押注中国、墨西哥和印度，

investors are embarking on a potentially lucrative but almost certainly bumpy ride. Two principal factors triggered this year's drop:

投资者开始了一段可能有利可图但几乎肯定崎岖不平的旅程。两个主要因素触发了今年的下跌：

shock waves from moves by the Federal Reserve Bank that raised interest rates in the U.S.

美联储提高利率的冲击

and the rise in global trade tensions stoked by the Trump administration. Those factors, in turn, triggered a slowdown in emerging-market growth rates.

以及特朗普政府激起的全球贸易紧张局势。这些因素反过来触发了新兴市场增长率的减速。

What ensued was fear of a meltdown that could mirror the Asian debt crisis of 1997.

随之而来的是对经济崩溃的担忧，这可能与1997年的亚洲债务危机如出一辙。

A funding crisis occurs when companies borrow heavily in dollars,

当公司大量借入美元，

and investors lose confidence in the ability of national governments or leading corporations to cover the interest payments.

并且投资方对国家政府或龙头企业偿还利息的能力失去信心时，就会发生资金危机。

The lenders then refuse to refinance the debt, leading to a wave of bankruptcies. That's what happened in the late 1990s.

贷方随后拒绝为债务再融资，导致了一波破产浪潮。这就是20世纪90年代末发生的事情。

"People read these headlines about countries with big currency problems, and given the disaster of 20 years ago, they get really scared," says GMO's John Thorndike.

“人们读到了关于国家遭遇巨大货币问题的新闻，鉴于20年前的灾难，他们真的害怕了，”GMO的John Thorndike表示。

Investors can be forgiven their concern, considering that funding crises have already hit Argentina and Turkey.

考虑到资金危机已经重创阿根廷和土耳其，投资方的担忧可以被原谅。

The Fed's rate hikes caused the U.S. dollar to spike relative to currencies in the developing world.

美联储加息导致美元兑发展中国家货币汇率飙升。

Many of those countries have underdeveloped capital markets, so their governments and companies borrow from abroad, frequently in dollars.

其中很多国家的资本市场都不发达，所以其政府和公司从国外借款，通常是美元。

As the greenback appreciates, they're forced to pay a lot more in Indonesian rupiah or Argentine pesos,

随着美元增值，他们被迫支付更多的印度尼西亚盾或阿根廷比索，

for example, to meet their dollar-denominated interest payments.

以支付以美元计价的利息。

Central banks then lift their own rates to prevent their currencies from sliding even more, a move that slows their economies,

随后央行抬高本行利率，以防止本国货币进一步贬值，此举减缓了他们的经济，

further curbing the business and tax revenues needed to repay foreign lenders.

进一步抑制了需要偿还外国银行的商业和税收收入。

Since late 2017, Mexico, South Korea, Russia, Indonesia, and Turkey have all raised rates, with Turkey going this year from 8% to 24%.

自2017年底以来，韩国、俄罗斯、印尼和土耳其都提高了利率，其中土耳其今年将利率从8%提高到24%。

That vicious circle may cause a downgrade in their credit, so as principal payments on their debt come due,

这种恶性循环可能会导致它们的信用降级，因此当它们的债务本金到期时，

overseas banks demand double-digit rates to refinance their loans. The possible upshot: a replay of the defaults and devaluations of 20 years ago.

海外银行会要求两位数的利率来对它们的贷款进行再融资。可能的结果：20年前的违约和贬值重演。

The other peril is volatility. Emerging-market equities flourished in the run-up of global commodities prices

另一个危险是波动性。在本世纪头十年的大部分时间里，新兴市场股票在全球商品价格的急剧增长中繁荣，

for most of the 2000s as many involve resource-rich countries and net exporters.

因为其中许多股票都涉及资源丰富的国家和净出口国。

But then pricey currencies and falling prices for oil and other raw materials sent the sector into a five-year bear market.

但昂贵的货币和石油及其他原材料价格下跌将，让该行业进入了为期五年的熊市。