财富杂志 为什么新兴市场的股票值得买入(3)（在线收听）

From early 2011 to the start of 2016, equities tumbled 40%, measured in dollars.

从2011年早期到2016年年初，按美元计算，股市暴跌了40%。

For U.S. investors, returns comprise two moving parts:

对于美国投资者来说，回报率包括两个变化的部分：

the trajectory of stock prices in local currencies and the exchange rate measuring the dollars the Chinese yuan or Brazilian real buys.

以本国货币计算的股价轨迹，以及衡量人民币或巴西雷亚尔兑美元的汇率。

A drop in exchange rates helped fuel the half-decade decline,

汇率下跌助长了长达五年的跌势，

a reversal in their currencies' fortunes fueled the 85% explosion starting in 2016,

始于2016年的货币财富逆转推动了85%爆炸式增长，

and another currency drop accounted for around one-third of the 20%-plus market decline from the heights in January.

市场从1月份的高点下跌了20%多，其中约三分之一是由于货币再次贬值造成的。

Emerging-market bulls rate the sectors risks to be greatly exaggerated.

看好新兴市场的人认为该行业的风险被严重夸大了。

For a disastrous spiral to take hold, a nation must be battling three negatives:

出现这种螺旋式上升，一个国家必须与三个负面因素斗争：

huge foreign (usually dollar) debt, a dearth of foreign reserves, and a trade deficit.

巨大的外债（通常是美元），缺乏外汇储备以及贸易逆差。

In fact, only three countries face the full trio of headwinds: Argentina, Turkey, and Indonesia.

实际上，仅有三个国家面临着这三重逆风：阿根廷、土耳其以及印度尼西亚。

According to an analysis by Research Affiliates, all three carry heavy dollar debt, and Argentina and Turkey are grappling with full-on crises.

根据锐联资产管理公司的分析，这三个国家都背负着沉重的美元债务，阿根廷和土耳其正在全力应对全面危机。

This year it took a $50 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund to arrest the collapse in the Argentine peso,

今年，其从国际货币基金组织获得了500亿美元的救助，以组织阿根廷比索崩溃，

and the country's central bank has hiked lending rates to 65%.

并且该国的中央银行将贷款利率大幅提升至65%。

Turkey's economy isn't in free fall, but it faces high inflation and a big balance of payment deficits.

土耳其的经济并不是处于自由落体状态，而是面临着高膨胀，且国际收支逆差大。

Relatively strong economic growth has enabled Indonesia to stabilize the rupiah by hiking rates to 5.75%.

相对强健的经济增长使印度尼西亚能够通过将利率提升至5.75%来稳定卢比。

Brazil and South Africa also merit concerns, if not as severe as the other three.

巴西和南非也值得关注，如果情况不像其他三个那么严重的话。

They have medium-size dollar debt loads and carry trade deficits that force them to borrow dollars.

他们的美元债务规模中等，并背负着迫使他们借入美元的贸易赤字。

"They're both flashing yellow," says Chris Brightman, chief investment officer for Research Affiliates.

“他们都需要谨慎，”锐联资产管理公司首席投资官Chris Brightman表示。

"But they also have large foreign reserves. And Brazil is finally emerging from a deep recession,

“但他们也都拥有大量外汇储备。并且巴西最终摆脱了严重的经济衰退，

while South Africa is lowering rates to restart growth."

而南非正在降低利率以恢复经济增长。

Argentina now rates high enough on "developed" metrics that it's not in the MSCI index, but as a past debt-crisis sufferer,

根据“发达”衡量标准（该指标不在MSCI指数中），阿根廷目前的利率已经足够高，但作为一个经历过债务危机的国家，

it still has the potential to stoke investor concerns about other emerging markets.

它仍有可能引发投资者对其他新兴市场的担忧。

Put simply, the threat of a funding crisis in the nations that dominate the emerging-market index is minimal.

简而言之，在新兴市场指数中占主导地位的国家发生融资危机的威胁很小。

"The Southeast Asian nations have not binged on dollar debt," says George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank.

“东南亚国家没有在美元债务中放纵，”Key Private Bank的首席投资官George Mateyo说到。

"They took their pain 20 years ago, and now all of emerging markets have been penalized with a broad brush."

“他们在20年前就经历过痛苦，现在所以新兴市场都受到了严厉的惩罚。”

What's more, even when emerging-market economies slow, they still grow faster than their grind-it-out, mature-economy counterparts.

此外，即使当新兴市场经济放缓，他们的增长速度仍然比那些已经筋疲力尽的成熟经济体要快。

Despite the downgrade, the IMF still expects developing economies to expand at 4.7% next year.

尽管降级，IMF仍然预计发展中经济体明年将以4.7%的速度增长。

The developed world is heading in the opposite direction.

发达国家正朝着反方向前进。

The agency forecasts that GDP expansion in the industrialized world will decline from 2.4% in 2018 to 2.1% next year.

该机构预计工业化世界的GDP扩张将从2018年的2.4%降至明年的2.1%。

"Keep in mind that the U.S. is in the 10th year of an economic up cycle, and emerging markets are in the second year,"

“要记住美国正处于经济上升周期的第10个年头，并且新兴市场在第二个年头，”

notes Chuck Knudsen, a portfolio specialist at T. Rowe Price.

T. Rowe Price的投资组合专家Chuck Knudsen指出。