时代周刊 土耳其进军叙利亚,叙俄联盟受到挑战(2)（在线收听）

The pair now treat that episode as old history,

尽管如今土俄双方已经摒弃前嫌，

but it shows what can happen when these two strong-willed leaders are at cross-purposes in Syria, the place where their interests are most clearly at odds.

但这些旧账可以说明，一旦两位固执的领导人在叙利亚问题上——两国利益在叙利亚问题上冲突最为明显——目的向左会发生什么。

Erdogan wants Syria’s Bashar Assad out.Russia considers Assad its most important Middle East ally.

埃尔多安希望叙利亚的巴沙尔·阿萨德出局，俄罗斯则视阿萨德为最重要的中东盟友。

And now Turkey has launched a ground assault in Syria, one that’s intended to push Syrian Kurds from territory they hold near the Turkish border.

现在，土耳其已经在叙利亚发起了地面进攻，试图将占领了靠近土耳其边境地区的叙利亚库尔德人驱逐出去。

The U.S. and Russia have both urged restraint and, for now, have pulled their forces from Turkey’s path.

美国和俄罗斯纷纷敦促克制，并已将各自的部队撤出了土耳其。

But both have worked with Syria’s Kurds and would prefer that Turkey back off.

但双方也都选择了和叙利亚的库尔德武装合作，希望土耳其退兵。

Erdogan insists he will not.

然而，埃尔多安执意进攻。

Russian objections have been muted, but that may not last long.

俄罗斯方面反对的声音已经变弱，但这可能不会持续太久。

Turkey will remain a member of NATO, because neither Turkey nor the alliance have good reason to cut ties.

土耳其将继续留在北约，因为土耳其和联盟都没有理由断绝双方的联系。

But Erdogan’s relations with Europe and the U.S. will worsen as Turkey moves toward probable early elections later this year

但埃尔多安与欧洲和美国的关系将会恶化，因为土耳其今年晚些时候可能提前大选

and he turns to anti-Western rhetoric to shore up his base.

但他为了支持自己的观点而发表了反西方的言论。

He has already angered Iran, which also considers Assad a crucial ally,

埃尔多安还经激怒了伊朗，因为伊朗也认为阿萨德是重要的盟友。

and the Saudis over his support for Islamist political movements in the Arab world.

此外，他还惹火了沙特人，因为他支持支持阿拉伯世界的伊斯兰政治运动。

That leaves Russia.

这就背离了俄罗斯的主张。

But Erdogan needs Putin much more than Putin needs Erdogan—and he had better be careful.

然而，埃尔多安需要普京比普京需要他更多 - 所以他最好还是小心为妙。