2020年经济学人 疫情下的租房驱逐保护令(2)（在线收听）

A deus ex machina of sorts has come from the Centres for Disease Control (CDC), the federal public-health agency that is occasionally the target of the president’s scorn. Arguing that evictions hasten the spread of the virus, it issued a sweeping moratorium starting on September 4th that applies to most renters nationwide (excepting American Samoa, which has been spared even a single case of covid-19). This came after an executive order from President Donald Trump that sought to “take all lawful measures to prevent residential evictions and foreclosures”. To qualify, renters must certify that they earn less than $99,000 and are unable to pay even after seeking government assistance. However, they must still make “timely partial payments” and will still owe back-rent.

美国疾病控制中心已经有了某种扭转乾坤的力量，尽管特朗普总统偶尔对这个联邦公共卫生机构表示轻蔑。美国疾病控制中心认为驱逐加速了病毒的传播，并为此颁布了一项全面禁止驱逐令，该法令于9月4日生效，且适用于全国大多数的租客。（美属萨摩亚除外，该国未出现新冠肺炎确诊病例）。此前，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普发布了一项行政命令，要求“采取一切合法措施，暂停驱逐房客和暂停止赎”。租房者必须证明自己的收入低于9.9万美元，并且即使寻求政府援助后也无法支付租金，才算符合条件。然而，他们仍需“及时支付部分房租”，且仍旧拖欠租金。

The public-health rationale for the decision is straightforward. A team of epidemiologists at Harvard, the University of Illinois and the University of Pennsylvania has published a model estimating that even a low eviction rate (0.25% of households per month) would increase caseloads by 1.5% by the end of the year. But a high eviction rate (2% of households per month) would increase cases by 13%. The nonmedical consequences of pausing evictions could prove equally important. Studies of the last recession showed that moving several times a year was associated with worse performance at school, the effects of which linger over a lifetime. And since evictions are caused by a failure to pay rent, reduced housing costs may allow increased spending on other necessities for struggling families.

美国政府这一决策的公共卫生理由直截了当。哈佛大学、伊利诺伊大学和宾夕法尼亚大学的流行病学家团队发表了一个模型，预估即使是低驱逐率的情况（每月有0.25%的家庭被驱逐），也会导致年底病例新增1.5%。而高驱逐率的情况下（每月有2%的家庭被驱逐），年底病例新增13%。禁止驱逐令引发的非医疗方面的后果可能同样重要。由上一次经济衰退的研究表明，每年多次搬家会导致学校成绩表现不佳，这种影响会持续一生。而且，困难家庭由于无法支付租金而受到驱逐，住房成本降低了，但随之可能会花费更多的钱在其他必需品上。