2020年经济学人 量子计算机蕴藏的商机(5)（在线收听）

In August the firm followed up with a paper in Science,

今年8月，该公司又取得了新的进展：他们在Science上发表了一篇文章，

describing the simulation of a chemical reaction involving hydrogen and nitrogen atoms.

展示了一种借鉴氢原子和氮原子的一种化学反应的量子计算方式。

That reaction was simple enough to be within the reach of classical machines.

这种反应非常简单，经典计算机都可以做到。

Optimists like Dr Finke think that, with a bit of luck and progress,

乐观主义者如芬克博士认为，如果有些许运气和进步的加持，

the first commercially relevant applications of quantum computers will appear within the next two or three years.

未来两三年内便能看到量子计算机第一批商业相关的应用。

In particular, he reckons it is worth keeping an eye on the finance industry,

尤其是，他认为，就这一应用而言，金融业格外值得关注，

where quantum computers could boost trading algorithms and portfolio management.

因为量子计算机有助于优化交易算法和投资组合管理。

"To develop a new battery or a new drug you have to test the product," he points out.

“开发一种新的电池或一种新的药品时都需要对其进行测试，”他指出。

This can take years.

这一工作可能需要耗费数年时间。

A slick new financial algorithm could be deployed in days.

而巧妙的新金融算法只需几天就能部署完毕。

And given the scale of the markets, even a tiny advantage could be worth a great deal of cash.

考虑到金融市场的宏大规模，即便是微小的优势也可能代表着一大笔收益。

Amit Kumar, a partner at BCG, agrees—though he points out that, keen to preserve its advantage,

波士顿咨询公司合伙人阿米特·库马尔对此也表示赞同——尽管他指出，因为渴望保持自己的优势，

a firm which had found a way to benefit from quantum acceleration might try to keep the fact under its hat.

企业即便已经摸索出了如何从量子加速中获益的办法，也有可能会对外保密。

This influx of money has, though, led some researchers to worry that hype may be overtaking reality,

不过，资金的涌入也引发了部分研究人员的担心，他们担心炒作大过现实，

and storing up disappointment for the future.

导致将来失望。

Some of the cash, says Dr Biercuk, comes from vc firms taking calculated risks by investing in what has come to be called "deep tech"—

比尔库克博士表示，行业收到的部分资金来自风投公司，这些公司进行的冒险其实较为合理，因为他们投资的是所谓的“深度科技”——

cuttingedge, highly technical projects like quantum computing, which advance the state of the art—

也即量子计算这样的，能够推动当前科技水平的高技术前沿项目——

as opposed to consumer-focused apps or gizmos with a shorter and more certain path to market.

而非以消费者为中心的应用程序或具有更短、更确定的上市路径的小打小闹的事物。

But he cautions that there is no shortage of hype-struck "dumb money" sloshing around, too.

但他也警告称，这些投资里也不乏投资方头脑一热便掏出来的“蠢钱”。

Whether those bets pay off will have implications beyond the venture-capital industry's next bonus round.

这些赌注是否能得到回报，届时受影响的将不止风险投资行业的下一轮机会。

One reason classical computers developed so quickly

传统计算机之所以能发展如此迅猛，原因之一在于

was that even early, feeble machines were useful for everything from wartime codebreaking to automating the payrolls of big firms.

即便是早期那些不太稳定的机器也能应用到战时密码破译，大公司工资单自动化等各个领域。

Those applications generated enough cash to design the next generation of less-feeble machines, which brought in yet more money.

这些应用换来了足够的收益，足以支撑研究人员设计新一代稳定性更好的机器，迭代之后的机器又能进一步带来更多的收益。

The resulting virtuous spiral is still turning, decades later.

数十年过去了，由此产生的良性螺旋优化模式今天依然有效。

Those now moving into quantum computing hope to encourage a similarly virtuous feedback loop.

现在进入量子计算领域的有关方希望他们也能带动一个类似的良性反馈循环。

If they succeed, the promise of quantum computing could be realised faster than the decade or more likely to pass before big, stable machines are ready.

大型、稳定的量子计算机准备就绪可能还需要十年乃至更长的时间，如果他们成功了，量子计算的希望或许就能提前实现。

If they fail, the field's reputation may take a knock.

如果失败，该领域的声誉或将面临打击。

That knock is unlikely to be fatal.

尽管打击不太可能致命。

But it will delay the arrival of a usable machine.

但必然会耽误真正可用的量子计算机的到来。