美国国家公共电台 NPR 埃塞俄比亚北部冲突加剧 或将演变为内战（在线收听）

Last year Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize. And yet less than a week ago, he launched military operations in the country's northern region. Now that conflict is threatening to turn into an all-out civil war. NPR's Eyder Peralta walks us through what's happening.

去年，埃塞俄比亚总理阿比·艾哈迈德获得了诺贝尔和平奖。然而不到一周前，他在该国北部地区发动了军事行动。现在这起冲突可能演变成全面内战。NPR新闻的爱德尔·佩塔尔塔将就正在发生的情况进行报道。

And, Eyder, to begin, give us a sense of why the prime minister had won the Nobel Prize.

爱德尔，首先请介绍一下埃塞俄比亚总理为何会获得诺贝尔奖。

EYDER PERALTA, BYLINE: He changed everything in Ethiopia. I mean, at home, he ushered in a raft of democratic reforms. And then he also made peace with Ethiopia's mortal enemy, Eritrea. During his Nobel lecture, he talked about how he fought in that war, and he called it the epitome of hell. Let's listen to a bit of that speech.

爱德尔·佩拉尔塔连线：他改变了埃塞俄比亚的一切。他在国内进行了一系列民主改革。而且他还与埃塞俄比亚的宿敌厄立特里亚实现和解。他在诺贝尔演讲中谈到了他如何在那场战争中奋战，他将该战争称为“地狱的缩影”。我们来听一下他的演讲。

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

（录音档案）

PRIME MINISTER ABIY AHMED: I've seen brothers slaughtering brothers on the battlefield. I have seen older men, women and children trembling in terror under the deadly shower of bullets and artillery shells. War makes for bitter men, heartless and savage men.

阿比·艾哈迈德总理：我看见过兄弟在战场上互相屠杀。我也见过年长的男性、女性和儿童在致命的枪林弹雨中战战兢兢。战争使人变得冷酷无情和野蛮。

PERALTA: He says, war makes for bitter men, heartless and savage men. And when Abiy came to power, people on the streets of Ethiopia told me that he was sent by God. And now he has started this new conflict in the same part of the country where this war between Ethiopia and Eritrea happened, and his Air Force is now bombing targets in his own country.

佩拉尔塔：他说战争使人变得冷酷无情和野蛮。阿比上台执政时，埃塞俄比亚街头的人们告诉我，他是上帝派来的。但现在他在埃塞俄比亚和厄立特里亚交战的同一地区发动了这场新冲突，他的空军正在轰炸本同境内的目标。

CORNISH: What's the cause of the conflict? And at this point, how bad is the fighting?

科尼什：冲突的起因是什么？目前战斗形势有多糟糕？

ERALTA: So it's complicated because — but it's essentially a power struggle. Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018 after a huge popular uprising. And one of the things that he did was dismantle Ethiopia's ruling party, which had run the country with violence and brutality for almost 30 years. The guys who ran the show were the TPLF, the Tigray People's Liberation Front, and they were sidelined. Since then, Abiy has accused them of destabilizing the country by stoking ethnic tensions. Abiy's allies have accused them of assassinations, including one attempt against Abiy himself. And last week the government says that the TPLF sent forces to attack a federal military base, and that's when Abiy ordered his army into the Tigray region.

P佩拉尔塔：情况相当复杂，这本质上是一场权力斗争。在大规模民众起义之后，阿比·艾哈迈德于2018年上台。他其中一项行动就是解散埃塞俄比亚的执政党，该党用暴力和残暴统治了这个国家将近30年。这一局势的操纵者是提格雷人民解放阵线（简称TPLF），他们已被边缘化。之后，阿比指责他们煽动民族紧张局势，破坏国家稳定。阿比的盟友指责他们开展暗杀行动，其中包括一起针对阿比本人的未遂暗杀。上周，政府称TPLF派军队袭击了一个联邦军事基地，阿比随即命令他的军队进入提格雷地区。

Now, how bad the fighting is has been hard to report because the government has shut down phone lines, and the Internet is off in the region. I'm still waiting for a visa. Reuters, which does have reporters on the ground, is reporting hundreds are dead on each side. Sudan state media has also said that many refugees have started fleeing to their country. So it's serious.

现在，战斗的严重程度很难报告，因为政府关闭了电话线，而且该地区的互联网也被中断。我还在等签证。在该地区有驻地记者的路透社报道称，双方各有数百人死亡。苏丹官方媒体也报道称，许多难民已开始逃往他们的国家。所以情况很严重。

CORNISH: What are the Tigray fighters saying at this point?

科尼什：提格雷武装力量目前有何表态？

PERALTA: It's a lot of bravado. They're calling the government dictatorial and treasonous, and those are the same words that the government is using against them. And they say that they're open to talk. But at the same time, you know, they also say that if they're hit hard, they plan on hitting back just as hard.

佩拉尔塔：现在都在虚张声势。他们称政府独裁而且叛国，而这和政府指责他们的说法完全一样。他们表示愿意谈判。但他们也表示，如果他们遭受严重打击，他们计划进行同样程度的反击。

CORNISH: Eyder, we talked about the threat of civil war. How high are the stakes here?

科尼什：爱德尔，我们谈过内战的威胁。现在风险有多高？

PERALTA: They're huge. Some analysts say that this could be like Yugoslavia, where Ethiopia breaks up. And Ethiopia, by the way, is the second largest country in Africa by population. And the conflict also has the potential to draw in Eritrea and even Sudan. And if it's protracted, it can really destabilize a region that is already super-vulnerable. And we can't really think of this as just a regional government against a powerful federal government. I mean, this is really one well-armed, well-trained military against another well-armed, well-trained military in a really fragile place in Africa.

佩拉尔塔：非常高。它一些分析人士表示，埃塞俄比亚可能像南斯拉夫一样解体。顺便说一句，埃塞俄比亚是非洲人口第二大国。这场冲突也有可能令厄立特里亚甚至苏丹参与进来。如果冲突持续下去，那可能会对破坏本就已经非常脆弱的地区的稳定。我们不能认为这只是地区政府在对抗强大的联邦政府。这是一支武装精良、训练有素的军队在非洲非常脆弱的地区对抗另一支装备精良、训练有素的军队。

CORNISH: That's NPR's Eyder Peralta speaking to us from Nairobi.

科尼什：以上是NPR新闻的爱德尔·佩拉尔塔从内罗毕带来的报道。

Thank you.

谢谢。

PERALTA: Thank you, Audie.

佩拉尔塔：谢谢，奥迪。