时代周刊:给和平一个机会(2)（在线收听）

Progress was hard to define, and the frequent changes of command at every level in the country hampered our efforts.

"进展"二字很难定义，各级命令的频繁变更也阻碍了我们的工作。

We suffered from Taliban safe havens across the border in Pakistan,

巴基斯坦边境两侧塔利班（为基地组织提供的）安全庇护所，

difficult supply chains and a tendency to emphasize positive developments while understating the challenges.

供应链困难以及强调积极发展却低估其难度的倾向都让我们吃了不少苦头。

Despite the frustration and the casualties,

尽管有挫折有伤亡，

we were able in time to turn the fight over to the marginally capable Afghan security forces and to withdraw the vast majority of our troops.

我们还是及时将战斗移交给能力不强的阿富汗安全部队，并撤出了我们的绝大部分军队。

We have brought home 90% of our troops, with only 13,000 or so still there.

我们已经撤回了90%的军队，目前只有13000人左右仍留在阿富汗执行任务。

Hopefully the peace agreement will be successfully concluded and will hold thanks to Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad’s tireless efforts.

多亏了（美国驻阿富汗）大使扎尔梅·哈利勒扎德的不懈努力，和平协议总算有望达成甚至持续下去。

The tenuous next steps will be negotiations between the Afghan government of Ashraf Ghani and the Taliban.

在那之后或许还有阿什拉夫·加尼领导的阿富汗政府与塔利班之间的谈判。

The objective from the U.S. perspective will be to bring home more of our troops,

从美国的角度来看，我们的目标是撤回更多的军队，

although ideally we would retain a cadre of around 5,000 Special Forces and trainers

尽管理想情况下，我们还是要留一支由特种兵及教官组成，规模在5000人左右的骨干之师

to help preserve the gains in democracy, human rights and gender equality that have been so painfully achieved.

帮助该国捍卫来之不易的民主、人权和性别平等等方面的进步成果。

We’ve seen this movie before, of course—in Vietnam.

当然，这样的故事我们并不陌生——那一次是在越南。

There it ended terribly, with all our forces withdrawn,

那一次的收场极其难堪，我们撤走了所有的部队，

funding cut to the Vietnamese army and helicopters lifting off the rooftop of the U.S. embassy in Saigon.

削减了越南军队的资金并用直升机从驻西贡大使馆的屋顶接走了最后一批海军陆战队员。

Many of our local allies of decades were tortured and killed in “re-education” camps.

最后，不少与我们有着数十年交情的当地盟友都在“劳改”营里被拷打，被杀害了。

It doesn’t have to end that way again,

这一次的阿富汗战争大可不必重蹈覆辙，

but success will require a modicum of funding for the Afghan security forces;

但若真要想成功，我们需要的不仅仅是缩减阿富汗安全部队的资金，

maintaining a “conditions-based” approach before withdrawing more troops;

还需要在撤出更多部队前继续落实“因地制宜”的政策，

real dialogue between the Afghan government and the Taliban;

推动阿富汗政府与塔利班展开实质性的对话，

continuing rights for women;

继续推进女性权益保护工作，

and engaging our allies in keeping up support for the Afghans.

说服我们的盟友继续支持阿富汗人民。

It will be hard to make this peace.

达成阿富汗协议固然不会容易。

I’d estimate the chances of a successful outcome—defined as the Taliban actually accepting a long-lasting peace—at roughly 50-50.

我个人估计，协商圆满结束——意思是塔利班真的接受持久和平的方针——的可能性在50%左右。

But we need to recognize that there is no military solution here.

但我们必须认识到，阿富汗问题上，军事解决方案终究是行不通的。

We have spent much blood and treasure on this honorable cause, and it would be foolish to throw it away.

我们已经为这个光荣的事业付出了太多的鲜血和财富，半途而废的话就太不愚蠢了。