时代周刊:"欧洲最后一个专政国家”面临新手挑战（打印版）

'Europe's last dictatorship' faces challenge from a novice

“欧洲最后一个专政国家”面临新手挑战

Europe's longest-serving leader, Alexander Lukashenko, is facing an unprecedented challenge

8月9日，参加白俄罗斯总统竞选，谋求第6届任期之际，

as he runs for a sixth term as President of Belarus in elections on Aug.9.

欧洲地区任职时间最长的领导人亚历山大·卢卡申科陷入了前所未有的挑战。

A former teacher with no political experience, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has emerged as his main rival, pledging to restore democracy.

毫无政治经验的前任教师斯维特拉娜·蒂哈诺夫斯卡娅成了他的主要竞争对手，前者立誓要恢复民主。

"For the first time in his 26-year rule, Lukashenko knows the majority don't support him," says Aleksandr Feduta, a former aide to the incumbent.

“卢卡申科执政26年来，第一次发现自己失去了多数民众的支持，”现任总统前助手亚历山大·费杜塔说。

BELORUSSIAN BULLY

白俄罗斯霸主

Lukashenko has ruled the former Soviet republic of 9.5 million people since 1994.

自1994年以来，卢卡申科一直统治着这个拥有950万人口的前苏联共和国。

His regime was dubbed "Europe's last dictatorship" by President George W. Bush in 2005.

2005年，其政权被乔治·W·布什总统冠上了“欧洲最后的专制政权”之名。

He has jailed opposition leaders, repressed independent opinion polls and held elections deemed "severely flawed" by the European Parliament.

他监禁反对派领导人，镇压独立民意调查，举行的选举也被欧洲议会视为“存在严重缺陷”的选举。

Now, anger has mounted over his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic (he dubbed it a "psychosis" that could be cured by vodka),

如今，他应对新冠肺炎疫情应对不当（他将这一病毒称之为伏特加就能治愈的“精神病”），（加之）白俄罗斯经济十年不见起色，

a decade of economic stagnation and financial dependence on neighboring Russia, which many citizens see as a threat to sovereignty.

靠着邻国俄罗斯才维持到今天，而不少公民都认为后者对白俄罗斯的主权是一大威胁，激起的民愤愈演愈烈。

ROOKIE'S ROAD

新手之路

Tikhanovskaya entered the race when her husband Sergei Tikhanovski, a popular YouTuber who led rallies against the regime, was jailed in May.

丈夫谢尔盖·蒂哈诺夫斯基，这位YouTube网红曾发动反对卢卡申科政权的集会，便于今年五月被判入狱，之后，蒂哈诺夫斯卡娅便加入了竞选行列。

Backed by opposition figures, Tikhanovskaya has brought record crowds to rally in support of her three pledges:

在反对派人物的支持下，蒂哈诺夫斯卡娅召集了超前规模的民众支持她的三个承诺：

to free political prisoners; reverse authoritarianism; and run new, free elections within six months.

释放政治犯；推翻专制主义（政府）；在六个月内举行自由的选举。

Police have responded with heavy-handed tactics, arresting more than 1,000 protesters, according to the Minsk-based humanrights group Viasna.

据总部位于明斯克的人权组织Viasna透露，白俄罗斯警方随后实施高压策略，逮捕了1000多名抗议者。

NO CONTEST

零竞争

The incumbent will almost certainly claim victory through a fraudulent election with vote rigging and ballot stuffing, analysts say.

分析人士称，现任总统几乎肯定会通过操纵选票、一人多投等选举舞弊操作攫取胜利。

But his battles won’t end there.

然而，他的战斗并不会就此结束。

Protesters have no intention of backing down, says Matthew Frear, an expert on Belarus at Leiden University,

莱顿大学白俄罗斯问题专家马修·弗里尔表示，抗议者无意让步，

and a weakened Lukashenko will find it far more difficult to resist the Kremlin’s influence:

届时，即便连任成功，式微的卢卡申科也会发现，日后抗拒克里姆林宫的难度会大大增加：

"If he cracks down on dissent he will lose the chance of turning to the West, leaving him with no choice but to work with Moscow."

“如果他镇压异见人士，他就会失去向西方寻求帮助的机会，这样一来，除了与莫斯科合作，他别无选择。”