美国国家公共电台 NPR 以色列议会解散 将迎来两年内第四次选举（在线收听）

It looks like a new political deadlock in Israel will lead to the country's fourth election in just two years. And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will once again be at the center of attention and debate as he once again struggles to hold on to power. Netanyahu is the country's longest-serving prime minister, but a long and ongoing corruption trial continues to cast a shadow on his administration. NPR's Daniel Estrin is in Jerusalem. He's here now.

以色列新的政治僵局似乎将导致该国在两年内举行第四次选举。以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡将再次成为关注和辩论的中心，因为他再次竭力保住权力。内塔尼亚胡是以色列任期最长的总理，但一场旷日持久的腐败审判仍继续给其政府蒙上阴影。NPR新闻的丹尼尔·埃斯特林现在在耶路撒冷。他将带来详细报道。

Hey, Daniel.

你好，丹尼尔。

DANIEL ESTRIN, BYLINE: Hi, Mary Louise.

丹尼尔·埃斯特林连线：你好，玛丽·路易斯。

KELLY: It feels like I was just talking to you (laughter) about elections in Israel and whether Netanyahu would hang on. I know there's all kinds of complicated parliamentary politics in play here, but bottom line, how did we get back here again?

凯利：感觉我们刚刚谈论过以色列选举以及内塔尼亚胡是否能继续执政。我知道有各种复杂的议会政治在起作用，但归根结底，为何又要举行选举？

ESTRIN: Yeah, deja vu all over again. Well, the government just was not going to last. It was a power-sharing government. Netanyahu was supposed to hand over his job next year to his political rival, but no one really believed that he actually would because Netanyahu's interest is just to stay in power. So what he did, he resisted passing the budget, and this budget crisis led to the parliament dissolving. And now, elections are scheduled for around March 23.

埃斯特林：没错似曾相识的情况再次重演。以色列政府难以为继。这是一个权力共享的政府。内塔尼亚胡本应在明年将总理之位移交给其政治对手，但没有人相信他真的会这样做，因为内塔尼亚胡的兴趣就是继续掌权。因此，他拒绝通过预算案，预算危机继而导致议会解散。选举定于明年3月23日左右举行。

KELLY: And March 23 is, you know, obviously a few months away. But any idea whether Netanyahu will hang on to the job? What's the thinking?

凯利：3月23日，显然还有几个月时间。你知道内塔尼亚胡能否保住总理之位吗？你怎么看？

ESTRIN: Well, you know, he might have an advantage here because elections give him a chance to win a new term, to prolong his grip on power. That could put him in a strong position while he is on trial for corruption. It might even give him ways to get out of his trial.

埃斯特林：他可能享有优势，因为选举赋予了他赢得新任期并延长权力控制的机会。这可能使他在腐败受审期间处于有利地位。这甚至可能让获得他摆脱审判的方法。

He said in a speech today that he will win re-election. He's confident. He's been doing good things. He helped Israel get COVID vaccines. He's forged diplomatic ties with four Arab states.

他在今天的演讲中表示，他将赢得连任。他非常自信。他一直在做好事。他帮助以色列获得了新冠肺炎疫苗。他还与四个阿拉伯国家建立了外交关系。

The truth is, though, that it will be an uphill battle. The pandemic will still be around during those elections. And Israelis are out of jobs. They're unhappy during this pandemic. And some are just plain sick of Netanyahu after more than a decade that he's been in power.

然而，事实是，这将是一场艰苦的战斗。在选举期间，新冠疫情仍将存在。而且有许多以色列人失业。他们在疫情期间非常难过。还有些人单纯是对内塔尼亚胡感到厌倦，因为他已经掌权10多年。

KELLY: Is there an obvious challenger out there who would be able to take advantage of this moment?

凯利：有没有明显的挑战者能够利用这个时刻？

ESTRIN: Several serious challenges are out there — challengers are out there. They're all right wing. They're all former Netanyahu allies. His main challenger is Gideon Sa'ar. He says Netanyahu's time has passed. He's a political liability. He's got corruption charges, he says — can't keep a government together. And polls are showing that Gideon Sa'ar and mostly right-wing parties could band together and block Netanyahu's path to re-election.

埃斯特林：现在有数个认真的挑战者。他们都来自右翼。而且都是内塔尼亚胡的前盟友。其主要挑战者吉德翁·萨阿尔表示，内塔尼亚胡的时代已经过去。他现在是政治负担。而且他面临腐败指控，已经不能让政府团结起来。民调显示，吉德翁·萨尔和大多数右翼政党可能联合起来，阻止内塔尼亚胡的连任之路。

KELLY: Let's set aside politics for a moment and just consider the bigger issues at stake. What is at stake for Israel in all this?

凯利：我们暂时把政治放在一边，考虑一下更重要的问题。这一切对与色列有何重要意义？

ESTRIN: The big thing is whether Netanyahu will stay or go. I mean, he has shaped who Israel — what Israel has become in the last more than 10 years. And, you know, whether or not he wins, more likely than not, there will be a right-wing prime minister in power who supports Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank, who opposes a Palestinian state. And so that could set Israel up on a rocky road with President-elect Biden.

埃斯特林：重要的是内塔尼亚胡会继续执政还是离任。历经10多年，他将以色列塑造成如今的模样。而且，无论他是否获胜，更有可能的情况是执政总理来自右翼，支持在被占领的约旦河西岸建立犹太人定居点，反对建立巴勒斯坦国。因此，这可能会使以色列与当选总统拜登之间的关系面临重重困难。

KELLY: Oh. All kinds of interesting issues at play there in terms of future relations with the Biden administration. NPR's Daniel Estrin reporting from Jerusalem.

凯利：哦。在未来与拜登政府的关系方面，各种有趣的问题都在起作用。以上是NPR新闻的丹尼尔·埃斯特林从耶路撒冷带来的报道。

Thank you, Daniel.

谢谢你，丹尼尔。

ESTRIN: Thank you, Mary Louise.

埃斯特林：谢谢你，玛丽·路易斯。