美国国家公共电台 NPR 苏莱曼尼遇袭一周年 伊朗将浓缩铀丰度提至20%（在线收听）

It was a year ago that a U.S. drone strike killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and nine others. He was the country's most powerful military figure. Iran has vowed to avenge his death, and the U.S. has warned not to and has been flying bombers over the region. NPR's Peter Kenyon joins us. Peter, thanks so much for being with us.

一年前，美国发动的无人机空袭致伊朗将军卡西姆·苏莱曼尼和其他9人死亡。苏莱曼尼是伊朗最强大的军事人物。伊朗誓要为其报仇，美国则警告伊朗不要这样做，且一直派轰炸机在该地区上空飞行。NPR新闻的彼得·肯杨将和我连们连线。彼得，非常感谢你和我们连线。

PETER KENYON, BYLINE: Hi, Scott.

彼得·肯杨连线：你好，斯科特。

SIMON: And please remind us about the chain of events last year.

西蒙：请带我们回顾一下去年发生的一连串事件。

KENYON: Well, tensions have been high for quite some time. There was an American contractor killed in Iraq, and the U.S. went after the Iran-backed militias they were holding responsible for that death. Tensions continue to increase. Militiamen at one point seemed like they were about to storm the U.S. Embassy. Then came this American drone strike. It killed Soleimani and an Iraqi militia deputy commander, among others. Tehran then hit back with missile attacks on Iraqi bases where U.S. military personnel were stationed — no casualties there. But Iranian officials have been saying they're not finished. They've got more avenging to do for Soleimani's killing.

肯杨：两国之间的紧张局势已经持续很长时间。一名美国承包商在伊拉克遇害，美国认为伊朗支持的民兵要为这起事件负责，因此开始追击这些民兵。双方的紧张局势不断加剧。民兵一度似乎要冲进美国大使馆。之后美国发动了无人机袭击。这起袭击致苏莱曼尼和一名伊拉克民兵副指挥官等人死亡。随后，伊朗政府对美军驻扎的伊拉克基地发动导弹袭击予以反击，这并未造成人员伤亡。但伊朗官员一直在说，事情还未结束。他们会采取更多行动为苏莱曼尼之死报仇。

SIMON: Of course, President Trump's about to leave office. Why this muscle-flexing now?

西蒙：当然，特朗普总统即将卸任。那为何现在炫耀武力？

KENYON: Well, there's been signals being sent on both sides. And on the aggressive side of things, we've been seeing American B-52s flying over the region. That prompted the foreign minister of Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif, to take to Twitter to complain about, quote, a "plot to fabricate a pretext for war." Last month, Washington was blaming these Iran-backed militias again for another rocket attack targeting the U.S. Embassy compound.

肯杨：双方都发出了信号。就攻击方面而言，我们看到美国的B-52轰炸机一直在该地区上空飞行。这促使伊朗外长穆罕默德·贾瓦德·扎里夫在推特上控诉，称这是“编造战争借口的阴谋”。上个月，美国政府再次将另一起针对美国大使馆的火箭弹袭击归咎于这些伊朗支持的民兵。

But then, on the more peaceful side, the Pentagon just announced it's withdrawing the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz at a moment of raised tension, sending it back to home port. That's seen by some as a sign the U.S. isn't looking for a clash right now. In Iran, it's easy to find angry rhetoric in the media and on the air aimed at Washington, but also qualifications such as, we don't have to avenge Soleimani's death right on January 3. That would be the one-year anniversary. It could happen any time, maybe much later. But no one can rule out happening sooner either, unfortunately.

但是，从更和平的角度来看，五角大楼刚刚宣布，在紧张局势加剧之际撤回尼米兹号航空母舰，将其送回母港。有些人认为这是美国目前不寻求冲突的迹象。伊朗的媒体和广播中充斥着针对美国政府的愤怒言论，但也有一些其他言论，比如，我们不必在1月3日为苏莱曼尼之死复仇。1月3日是苏莱曼尼遇袭一周年。伊朗随时都可能进行复仇，也许会在很久之后发生。但不幸的是，同样没有人能排除更早发生的可能性。

SIMON: Does the fact that the Trump administration, which ordered the strike, is in its final days offer an out to both sides?

西蒙：下令发动空袭的特朗普政府是否在即将离任时给双方提供了机会？

KENYON: It could. I mean, the possibility exists. Biden and his team have certainly signaled that they intend to shift Iran policy onto a less confrontational footing. Getting into a clash might make that harder to do. Possibly, he may even return to this 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, the one that Trump pulled the U.S. out of in 2018.

肯杨：有可能。我的意思是，这种可能性是存在的。拜登及其团队已经明确表示，他们计划将伊朗政策转向对抗程度较低的立场。卷入冲突可能会这更难实现。他甚至可能重返2015年签署的伊朗核协议，也就是特朗普在2018年让美国退出的协议。

SIMON: The head of Iran's civilian Atomic Energy Organization said today, I gather, that his agency's ready to enrich uranium up to 20%, far lower than the 90% weapons-grade enrichment but considerably higher than what the Iran nuclear deal allowed, which was under 4%. Is there anything left of the 2015 deal to save?

西蒙：据我所知，伊朗民用原子能组织的负责人今天表示，其机构准备将铀浓缩至20%，这远低于90%的武器级浓缩，但远远高于伊朗核协议允许的水平，即低于4%。2015年签署的协议还有能挽救的吗？

KENYON: Well, there is, believe it or not. Everything that's been done on both sides — the U.S. putting the sanctions back on Iran, Iran violating some of the limits in the deal, including this latest announcement about enriching to 20% — all of that can be reversed. But it may not be just as simple as, OK, the deal's back on again. Snap your fingers, and it's done. The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, the IAEA, says that's not really easy. They can't go back to square one because things have changed. Time has moved on. What he says is that new negotiations are needed, and that won't happen overnight. In fact, Iran is resisting the idea of new negotiations at all, saying, first, get back into the old deal, and then we can talk.

肯杨：有，信不信由你。双方所做的一切都可以逆转，比如美国恢复对伊朗的制裁，伊朗违反协议中的一些限制，这包括最新宣布的将铀浓缩至20%等。但可能不会像只是说一句“恢复协议”那样简单。打个响指，搞定。联合国核监督机构国际原子能机构（简称IAEA）的负责人表示，这其实并不容易。他们不能回到原点，因为情况发生了变化。时间荏苒。他表示，需要启动新的谈判，而这不会在一夜之间实现。事实上，我们可以先重返旧协议，然后再开始谈判。

SIMON: NPR's Peter Kenyon speaking from Istanbul. Thanks so much for being with us.

西蒙：以上是NPR新闻的彼得·肯扬从伊斯兰堡带来的报道。非常谢谢你和我们连线。

KENYON: Thank you, Scott.

肯杨：谢谢，斯科特。