纽约时报 伊朗对峙反倒助长了两国鹰派的气焰(2)（在线收听）

The question now is whether escalation prevails,

现在的问题是，结局究竟是冲突升级占上风，

or whether the instinct to back away from direct confrontation —

还是回避正面冲突的本能会开始发挥作用——

by Mr. Trump and those in Iran who see some kind of accommodation with the West as the only way out of the country’s isolation — kicks in.

这主要取决于特朗普和伊朗一方认为与西方达成某种和解是摆脱伊朗孤立处境的唯一途径的人士。

It is hardly guaranteed, but it has happened before.

很难保证后一种情况一定会发生，但以前确实有过先例。

The two countries were closer to conflict a decade ago than was publicly apparent at the time.

十年前，两国之间的冲突比当时公开表现出来的还要严重。

During the Bush and Obama administrations,

在布什时期和奥巴马时期，

Israel was repeatedly talked down from attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities.

以色列曾多次被美国说服放弃攻击伊朗的核设施。

If retaliation followed, that would almost certainly have sucked in American military forces.

如果随后发生了报复行动，美国的军队十有八九已经卷入其中了。

Both conducted complex cyberattacks on the Iranian facilities to buy some time,

为了争取时间，两届政府都曾对伊朗的核设施进行过复杂的网络攻击，

and Mr. Obama began negotiations behind the backs of the Israelis and the Saudis.

奥巴马还背着以色列和阿拉伯跟伊朗谈判过。

He ultimately reached the deal that Mr. Trump denounced as one of the worst in history.

最终，他促成了那个被特朗普谴责为史上最糟糕的协议之一的伊朗核协议。

But the national security team that dominated Mr. Trump’s first 15 months in office —

然而，在特朗普执政的头15个月里发挥着主导作用的国家安全团队——

the national security adviser, Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster; the secretary of state, Rex W. Tillerson;

国家安全顾问麦克马斯特中将；国务卿雷克斯·W·蒂勒森

and the secretary of defense, Jim Mattis —

以及国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯——

were unanimous in the view that the president should expand the deal, rather than reject it.

一致认为，总统应该进一步拓宽该协议的范围，而非否决它。

As soon as Mr. Tillerson and Mr. McMaster were forced out, Mr. Trump withdrew from the deal,

蒂勒森和麦克马斯特双双被特朗普辞退后，特朗普立即退出了该协议，

and their successors devised a sanctions regime that Mr. Pompeo described as meant to bring Iran’s oil revenue “to zero.”

两位的继任者则制定了一套据蓬佩奥称，旨在将伊朗的石油收入“降至零”的制裁体制。

For a year, Mr. Zarif and President Hassan Rouhani seemed to hold Iran’s hard-line factions at bay.

最近一年，伊朗外长扎里夫和伊朗总统哈桑·鲁哈尼似乎已经制住了伊朗的强硬派。

They asserted that it was better to stay within the limits of the nuclear accord —

他们宣称，相比煽动危机，继续停留在核协议之内——

even if the United States was in violation of its own commitments to suspend sanctions — than to incite a crisis.

即便美国自己违背了暂停制裁的承诺——才是明智的选择。

The Europeans appeared to side with Iran,

欧洲这次似乎站到了伊朗一边，

declaring publicly that Mr. Trump was making a huge mistake

他们公开昭示，特朗普退出核协议是极大的错误，

by abandoning an agreement that, at least for the next dozen years or so, would keep Iran from producing the fuel for a nuclear weapon.

否则，该协议阻止伊朗生产核武器所需燃料至少还能再阻止十年左右。

In an interview in New York in late April,

4月底在纽约接受采访时，

Mr. Zarif said that he was fighting a back-channel bureaucratic struggle in Iran to preserve the agreement “every day.”

扎里夫说，为了保住协议，他“每天”都在与伊朗的幕后官僚斗争作斗争。

He ended with a suggestion for the Trump administration:

采访最后，他向特朗普政府提了一个建议：

Rather than look for new ways to maximize pain, try “showing some respect.”

与其想新的方法让痛苦最大化，不如试着“放尊重些”。

Last month, it became clear that Mr. Rouhani and Mr. Zarif,

上月，在国内经常被指责与美国过从甚密的鲁哈尼和扎里夫，

often denounced at home for being too cozy with the United States, were losing that internal argument.

明显已经在这场内部争论中失势。

Under pressure to explain why a deal that he promised would help lift economic sanctions had only resulted in even harsher ones,

被要求解释协议为何不仅没有像他承诺的那样解除伊朗受到的经济制裁，反而让制裁变得更为严厉时，

Mr. Rouhani announced that Iran would begin to edge out of the nuclear restrictions,

面对这一压力，鲁哈尼宣布，伊朗将开始逐步走出核协议的条条框框，

loosening different elements of them every 60 days

每60天解除一批规定，

unless the Europeans found a way to make up for the American-imposed penalties.

除非欧洲想到办法弥补美国对伊朗施加的惩罚。

While a slow move rather than a drastic one,

尽管伊朗只做出了缓慢而非激烈的举措，

it also signaled a new moment of confrontation between Iran and the West

伊朗的行动还是标志着伊朗和西方的对抗进入了一个新的时刻，

and a moment for the Revolutionary Guards —

而这也是革命卫队彰显其实力的时刻——

designated as a terrorist organization by Mr. Pompeo over the objections of the Pentagon — to flex its muscles.

此前，蓬佩奥曾不顾五角大楼的反对，执意将该卫队定位为恐怖组织。