新闻周刊:美国专家预测,美伊战争将以双方的灾难告终(2)（在线收听）

The government's deployment of new forces, releasing of intelligence suggesting an Iranian threat and reported review of war plans "signals the imminent possibility of a war," Freeman said. This is being encouraged, he suggested, by Israeli and Saudi officials keen to see Iran's regional power degraded and theocratic regime toppled. Regardless, he stressed that "there is no specific justification for war with Iran."

弗里曼说，政府部署新部队、公布暗示伊朗威胁的情报以及报告对战争计划的审查“表明战争迫在眉睫”。他表示，以色列和沙特官员希望看到伊朗的地区权力被削弱，神权政体被推翻，这一点受到了鼓励。无论如何，他强调，“没有具体的理由与伊朗开战。”

Iran has been preparing for such a situation for decades. Iran has around 550,000 active military personnel. Including reserves, this number pushes 1 million. Though the American military as a whole is much larger, it is spread all over the world.

几十年来，伊朗一直在为这种局面做准备。伊朗大约有55万现役军人。包括储备军人，总人数达到100万。虽然美国军队整体规模要大得多，但却遍布世界各地。

Based on Department of Defense data published at the end of March, the U.S. currently has around 30,000 troops stationed in various countries in the Middle East and South Asia. The majority are accounted for in Afghanistan (around 14,000), Iraq (some 5,000), Turkey (1,600)—all of which border Iran—and Syria (roughly 2,000). Apart from Turkey, all these troops are already engaged in in-country missions.

根据美国国防部3月底公布的数据，美国目前在中东和南亚的多个国家驻有大约3万名军人。其中大多数在阿富汗(约14000人)、伊拉克(约5000人)、土耳其(1600人)和叙利亚(约2000人)。除土耳其外，所有这些部队都已在国内执行任务。

Elsewhere, the major U.S. naval base in Bahrain is home to around 4,000 American personnel, while bases in Kuwait account for 2,000. There are 541 troops deployed at facilities in Qatar and another 297 in Saudi Arabia. All these locations are close to Iran, the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, where key clashes would take place in the event of any war between the U.S., its allies and Iran.

在其他地方，美国在巴林的主要海军基地驻扎着大约4000名美国人，而在科威特的基地则驻扎着2000名美国人。目前有541名士兵部署在卡塔尔的军事设施，另有297名部署在沙特阿拉伯。所有这些地点都靠近伊朗、波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡，一旦美国及其盟友与伊朗发生战争，这些地方就会发生关键冲突。

The remainder of U.S. personnel in the region are based further afield in regions like Egypt and the British Indian Ocean Territory, as well as a handful in nations bordering Iran like Pakistan and Turkmenistan.

美国在该地区的其余人员驻扎在更远的地区，如埃及和英属印度洋地区，以及少数与伊朗接壤的国家，如巴基斯坦和土库曼斯坦。

The Iranian military is not as sophisticated as the U.S., and the country would have little chance of success in a conventional war. As such, its forces would likely engage in unconventional operations to strike back. "It has the ability to strike at U.S. bases and installations in the region with either missiles or unconventional forces, or both," Freeman explained.

伊朗军队没有美国那么老练，这个国家在常规战争中几乎没有成功的机会。因此，其部队可能会采取非常规行动进行反击。弗里曼解释说：“它有能力用导弹或非常规力量，或者两者兼而有之，打击美国在该地区的基地和设施。”