新闻周刊:非洲第一个超级大国的到来比你想象的要快(2)（在线收听）

I'm hoping Sanusi can tell me which will win out.

我希望萨努西能告诉我谁会赢。

The emir has a degree in Sharia, Islamic law. He also has a master's in economics. Before becoming emir, he was head of the Nigerian equivalent of the Federal Reserve. His reform agenda was so aggressive it was known as the Sanusi tsunami. It earned him recognition as the top central banker in the world. He has an equally ambitious agenda for his emirate. I listen as he describes a future that has stronger rights for women and children; he also explains how to use education and child support laws to end child marriage and slow population growth. He talks about modernizing agriculture and investing in its value chain.

埃米尔拥有伊斯兰教法学位。他还拥有经济学硕士学位。在成为埃米尔之前，他是尼日利亚版的美联储主席。他的改革议程非常激进，被称为“佐努西海啸”。这为他赢得了世界顶级央行行长的赞誉。他对他的酋长国有一个同样雄心勃勃的议程。我听过他描述一个为妇女和儿童争取更大权利的未来；他还解释了如何利用教育和儿童抚养法律来结束童婚和减缓人口增长。他谈到了农业现代化和对其价值链的投资。

Can it happen?

它能发生什么呢?

State of the State

国家状态

When you're standing on a dusty street ankle-deep in trash, watching young men load a cart with 5-gallon jugs of water that they will sell door to door to homes that lack indoor plumbing, it's not easy to envision Nigeria as a superpower. Expectations for the country have been high before: just after independence in 1960 and during the Africa Rising enthusiasm of a decade ago.

当你站在积满灰尘、深及脚踝的街道上，看着年轻人用一辆手推车装上5加仑的水罐，挨家挨户地把水卖给没有室内管道的家庭时，你很难想象尼日利亚会成为一个超级大国。在此之前，人们对这个国家的期望一直很高:1960年刚独立不久，十年前非洲热情高涨。

And yet, despite having had so much going for it, Nigeria has remained stuck near the bottom of the indexes used to compare nations—social progress, human development, peacefulness, governance, innovation, fragility, corruption and ease of doing business—while Asian nations have taken off. Nigeria is not a failed state, but neither is it a successful one. Oge Onubogu, who leads the Africa programs at the U.S. Institute of Peace, says, "Nigeria lurches from one crisis to another, but whenever you think it's about to topple over, it pulls itself back."

然而，尽管有如此多的有利条件，尼日利亚仍然停留在用来比较国家——社会进步、人类发展、和平、治理、创新、脆弱、腐败和经商便利——指数的底部，而亚洲国家已经起飞。尼日利亚不是一个失败的国家，但也不是一个成功的国家。美国和平研究所非洲项目负责人Oge Onubogu说:“尼日利亚从一个危机蹒跚走向另一个危机，但每当你认为它即将倒下时，它就会把自己拉回来。”

It's in one of those crises at the moment. Yemi Koyejo of the Nigerian-American Multicultural Council in Houston says that all Nigerians want is "a decent life." She says this comes down to basic services. "It's really bad right now in Lagos, and if it's bad in Lagos, imagine what it's like in the rest of the country. The average person wants shelter, security, health care and electricity."

目前它正处于这样的危机之中。休斯敦的尼日利亚-美国多元文化委员会的Yemi Koyejo说，所有尼日利亚人想要的是“体面的生活”。她说，这归根结底是基本的服务。“现在拉各斯真的很糟糕，如果拉各斯真的很糟糕，想象一下这个国家其他地方的情况。普通人需要住房、安全、医疗和电力。”

Meanwhile, the population is exploding, growing more than twice as fast as the world average. That is especially true in the North, where fertility rates are typically around seven children per woman. Except in Lagos, local governments struggle to collect taxes and provide basic services. "Middle class" is defined as the ability to afford bottled water and a generator. Even more worrying to most Nigerians is the security situation. On average, seven middle-class Nigerians and oil field workers are kidnapped and held for ransom every day. Only a few years ago, most people made the short trip from the capital Abuja to Kaduna by road.

与此同时，中国的人口正在爆炸式增长，增速是世界平均水平的两倍多。在北方尤其如此，那里的生育率一般在每个妇女七个孩子左右。除了拉各斯，地方政府还在努力收税和提供基本服务。“中产阶级”被定义为有能力购买瓶装水和发电机。大多数尼日利亚人更担心的是安全局势。平均每天有7名尼日利亚中产阶级和油田工人遭到绑架和勒索。就在几年前，大多数人还只是从首都阿布贾到卡杜纳的短途旅行。