新闻周刊:非洲第一个超级大国的到来比你想象的要快(6)（在线收听）

It has around 200 million people, 10 times that of an average African nation and almost twice that of the second largest, Ethiopia. One out of every seven black people on earth is Nigerian. Nigeria's population is already larger than Russia's and in 30 years will pass that of the U.S. According to the U.N., by the end of the century, Nigeria will have 733 million people. It has what Folasope Aiyesimoju, CEO of the conglomerate UAC and formerly with Kohlberg Kravis Roberts in London, calls "demographics to die for." In other words, a young population. Nigeria is Africa's largest economy as well, surpassing South Africa. According to Canback Consulting, which focuses on emerging economies, it already has a small but growing middle class.

它有大约2亿人口，是非洲平均水平的10倍，几乎是第二大国家埃塞俄比亚的两倍。地球上每七个黑人中就有一个是尼日利亚人。尼日利亚的人口已经超过俄罗斯，30年后将超过美国。根据联合国的报告，到本世纪末，尼日利亚将有7.33亿人口。它拥有UAC集团首席执行官、前KKR集团伦敦分公司首席执行官福拉索皮·埃耶西莫朱所说的“值得为之牺牲的人口统计数据”。换句话说，就是年轻人。尼日利亚也是非洲最大的经济体，超过了南非。据专注于新兴经济体的咨询公司Canback Consulting称，中国已经有了一个规模虽小但不断壮大的中产阶级。

Of course, like China in 1978 and India in 1990, Nigeria has in place a set of economic policies that stifle innovation and efficiency. The government provides too much control and not enough support, such as infrastructure and basic services. One CEO says off the record, "Businesses pray to not be noticed by the government." Another describes a "continuous parade of government types coming through my office trying to shake me down."

当然，就像1978年的中国和1990年的印度一样，尼日利亚有一套扼杀创新和效率的经济政策。政府提供了太多的控制而没有提供足够的支持，比如基础设施和基本服务。一位首席执行官私下表示:“企业祈祷政府不要注意到它们。”另一个人描述道:“不断有各种各样的政府官员来到我的办公室，试图让我下台。”

Andrew S. Nevin of PwC points out that the public sector in Nigeria is tiny compared with those of most countries. True. But if Nigeria removes the barriers to growth, its economy could explode too.

普华永道的安德鲁 S. 内文指出，与大多数国家相比，尼日利亚的公共部门规模很小。这是真的。但是如果尼日利亚消除了增长的障碍，它的经济也会爆炸。

Secret Weapons

秘密武器

Some pieces of the puzzle are already falling into place. Nigeria has a functioning stock exchange and capital market. Pockets of the country are thriving. Sanusi points to Lagos state, which provides an excellent model for what Nigeria could be. It's dynamic and things work, in part because the government collects taxes and reinvests them in improving infrastructure and providing services.

这个难题的一些部分已经逐步解决了。尼日利亚有一个正常运作的股票交易所和资本市场。这个国家的一些地区正在蓬勃发展。萨努西指出，拉各斯州为尼日利亚的未来提供了一个绝佳的范例。它是动态的，事情是有效的，部分原因是政府收税并将其再投资于改善基础设施和提供服务。

The export economy is diversifying. Nevin says Nigeria's most valuable export is now people, not oil. Around 5 million Nigerians live abroad, mostly in the U.K. and the U.S. The diaspora is highly educated. Almost a third of the Nigerians in America have advanced degrees. This diaspora is also passionately loyal. Nigeria gets more each year from remittances, money sent home by those working abroad, than it does from foreign aid. Nevin estimates that formal and informal remittances could total as much as $40 billion. But the diaspora provides more than just money. It is a real-time link to Western know-how and technology.

出口经济正在多样化。内文说，尼日利亚现在最有价值的出口是人，而不是石油。大约有500万尼日利亚人生活在国外，主要是在英国和美国。散居海外的人受过高等教育。在美国，几乎三分之一的尼日利亚人拥有高等学位。这些散居海外的人也非常忠诚。尼日利亚每年从海外工作人员寄回家的汇款中得到的钱比从外国援助中得到的要多。内文估计，正式和非正式汇款总额可能高达400亿美元。但是移民带来的不仅仅是金钱。它是与西方知识和技术的实时链接。