2021年经济学人 拜登要重新领导世界,中美关系非同小可(2)（在线收听）

The complexity of the new footing with China that Mr Sullivan and other reformists envision underlies that uncertainty. While many in Congress, from both parties, hanker after the simplicity of an old-fashioned cold war, they want closer co-operation with China on some issues—including public health and climate change, a priority that unites the Democratic coalition—while checking or pulling away from it in other areas, including supply-chains, technology transfers and trade. Mr Biden is, for example, therefore likely to retain some of his predecessors’ tariffs.

沙利文和其他改革派所设想的新的对华关系的复杂性，构成了这种不确定性的基础。尽管许多国会两党议员都渴求与中国进行旧式冷战的简单化版本，但他们希望在一些问题上与中国进行更密切的合作，包括公共卫生和气候变化，这是与民主党联盟联合的一个优先事项，同时在其他领域遏制或排斥中国，包括供应链、技术转让和贸易。例如，拜登可能会保留前任总统特朗普定下的一些关税。

That is also where the Democrat’s long-promised push to rebuild alliances comes in. As an alternative to new trade agreements or joining what remains of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which his team appears to think politically impossible, he is expected to pursue more ad hoc agreements, issue by issue. Whether that will impress America’s allies must also be seen. The EU’s decision to go ahead with its investment agreement with China, after Mr Sullivan hinted it should hold off, points to their scepticism.

这也是民主党长期以来承诺的重建同盟的动力所在。作为达成新的贸易协定或加入跨太平洋伙伴关系（他的团队似乎认为这在政治上是不可能的）的替代方案，预计他将寻求就不同议题达成更多专门的协定。这是否会给美国的盟友留下深刻印象还必须拭目以待。在沙利文暗示欧盟应该暂缓与中国签署投资协议后，欧盟还是决定继续与中国签署投资协议，这表明了欧盟对美国的怀疑态度。

Mr Biden’s and his advisers’ other big ambition is to bring foreign policy and economic policy more into alignment. This is a familiar idea; Warren Christopher once vowed to put an “America desk” in the State Department. But the focus on national competitiveness has made it newly relevant. So has growing enthusiasm for industrial policy in both parties, rooted in loose monetary policy, scepticism about globalisation and a desire to address the economic grievances that have contributed to the rise of populism— another new problem Mr Biden must take into account. It is notable that Mr Sullivan, who as Hillary Clinton’s former policy chief carries the scars of Donald Trump’s election, has embraced much of the anti-globalism critique of the Sanders-Warren left.

拜登和他的顾问们的另一大抱负是使美国外交政策和经济政策更加协调一致。这是一个熟悉的想法；沃伦·克里斯托弗曾经发誓要在国务院设立一个“美国服务处”。但是，对国家竞争力的关注使其具有了新的相关性。两党对工业政策的热情与日俱增，根源在于宽松的货币政策、对全球化的怀疑以及解决会导致民粹主义抬头的经济问题的愿望（这是拜登必须考虑的另一个新问题）。沙利文曾经是希拉里?克林顿的前任政策负责人，唐纳德?特朗普的当选使他元气大伤，值得注意的是，他接受了桑德斯和沃伦代表的左派提出的大部分反全球主义批判言论。