新闻周刊:拜登总统会否重蹈奥巴马的覆辙?(3)（在线收听）

But that is the paradox: In a narrowly divided Congress, Biden almost certainly will not be able to make major public investments if he is conflict averse. Passing a bold agenda will likely require an epic confrontation with the Republicans, who are already girding for obstruction. After years of profligate tax cuts and spending, GOP leaders are suddenly pretending to care about the deficit, and if history is any guide, they will renew their efforts to block the changes to environmental and labor laws that Biden has promised are forthcoming.

但这是一个悖论：在存在严格分歧的国会，如果拜登厌恶冲突，他几乎必定无法进行重大的公共投资。通过一项大胆的议程可能需要与共和党展开史诗般的对抗，而共和党已经准备好进行阻挠。经过多年的挥霍性的减税和支出，共和党领导人突然假装关心赤字，如果以史为鉴，他们将重新全力阻止拜登承诺的即将修改的环境和劳工法。

The left is correct to fear Biden getting too cozy with Republicans: His record working with the GOP was marked by collaborating with segregationists against school busing, supporting the Iraq War and pushing to cut Social Security—and it is not hard to imagine Biden now finding common ground with Mitch McConnell on the latter.

左派人士担心拜登与共和党人相处过于融洽是正确的：拜登曾与共和党人展开多次合作，包括与种族隔离主义者合作反对校车、支持伊拉克战争、以及推动削减社会保障，不难想象拜登现在会在最后这个问题上与米奇·麦康奈尔找到共同点。

But this is where progressives must learn their own lesson from the Obama years: rather than once again offering deference to a first-term Democratic president, they must press Biden to reject an attitude of appeasement, move him into a more confrontational posture and urge him to see the first few months of the Obama era as a cautionary tale rather than a guidebook. And they have already had some initial success doing that: they successfully pressured him to start supporting the $2,000 survival checks.

但在这一点上，进步人士必须从奥巴马时代吸取教训：不能再次向民主党第一任总统致敬，他们必须向拜登施压，让他拒绝采取绥靖态度，让他摆出更具对抗性的姿态，敦促他把奥巴马时代的头几个月看作一个警示故事，而不是一本指南。他们已经取得了一些初步的成功：他们成功向拜登施压，要求他开始支持2000美元的生存支票。

"We've got to pass the infrastructure package, we've got do the $2,000 checks, we've got to do a whole bunch of things with a 50-50 Senate and a pretty slight margin in the House," said Wisconsin Democratic Rep. Mark Pocan, a former co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. "I hope we don't do what we did when Barack Obama first got elected and try to have kumbaya a little too much with everybody and not get things done in that little period of time we had. We really have to act and use the very tight margins we have very swiftly in order to get these things done."

威斯康辛州民主党众议员、国会进步党团前联席主席波坎表示：“我们必须通过基础设施一揽子计划，我们必须通过2000美元的支票法案，我们必须凭借参议院的50比50的票数和众议院的微弱优势做一大堆事情。”“我希望我们不要像巴拉克·奥巴马刚当选时那样，试图对每个人都唱着圣歌，不要在我们仅有的那一小段时间内完成事情。为了完成这些任务，我们真的必须迅速采取行动，利用我们有限的利润。”

This will require the kind of shrewdness, discipline and intestinal fortitude not typically seen from the left in decades. Grassroots groups will have to get comfortable pressuring the new administration, even if the White House doesn't like it. Democratic lawmakers will have to be prepared to clash with Biden, even when he is trying to talk them down with "come on, man," "here's the deal" and other sweet nothings.

这将需要几十年来左派所没有的那种精明、纪律和毅力。即使白宫不喜欢，草根组织也必须对新政府施压。民主党议员必须准备好与拜登发生冲突，即使他试图用“来吧，伙计”，“你看这样行不行”和其他甜言蜜语来说服他们。

The good news is that progressives are better positioned for this fight than they have been in years. The corporate wing of the Democratic Party remains powerful by virtue of its ties to big money, but polls show it has lost the argument in the contest of ideas. Many Americans want big change, and want it now—and progressive Democratic lawmakers are fortified by a grassroots fundraising base, better political infrastructure and name-brand leaders.

好消息是，进步派在这场斗争中的地位比过去几年更好。民主党的企业派由于手握巨额资金而仍然强大，但民调显示，这一派别在思想斗争中失去了辩论权。许多美国人现在就想要大的变革，而进步民主党议员们为此得到了基层筹款基础、更好的政治基础设施和知名领导人的加强。

In the House, the Progressive Caucus has dozens of members, and it is revamping its rules to be a more cohesive voting bloc so that it can leverage power in the narrowly divided chamber.

在众议院，促进核心小组有几十名成员，他们正在修改自己的规则，使之成为一个更具凝聚力的投票集团，以便能够在存在严格分歧的众议院中利用权力。

Already, the group—led by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other members of the Squad—persuaded Democratic leaders to reform budget rules to make it easier to pass landmark initiatives like a Green New Deal and Medicare for All. They can also reject the "look forward, not backward" attitude and instead press to invoke the Congressional Review Act to rescind a slew of last-minute Trump regulations designed to weaken protections for the environment and workers while undermining the fight against climate change.

由众议员亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥·科尔特斯和其他成员领导的小组已经说服民主党领导人改革预算规则，以便更容易地通过具有里程碑意义的举措，如绿色新政和全民医保。他们也可以拒绝“向前看，而不是向后看”的态度，转而施压援引《国会审查法》，撤销特朗普在最后关头制定的一系列法规，这些法规旨在削弱对环境和工人的保护，同时破坏应对气候变化的斗争。