美国国家公共电台 NPR 朝鲜警告美韩军演 并拒接韩方联络电话（在线收听）

The U.S. and South Korea begin joint military exercises next week.

美国和韩国将于下周开始举行联合军事演习。

North Korea has warned that if they do, the allies will face a security crisis.

朝鲜警告称，如果他们举行军演，美韩联盟将面临安全危机。

Seoul and Washington are watching for signs of military provocations from the North.

韩国和美国都在关注来自朝鲜的军事挑衅迹象。

And as NPR's Anthony Kuhn reports, Pyongyang has some new additions to its arsenal.

据NPR新闻的安东尼·库恩报道，朝鲜增加了新的武器装备。

In an apparent protest against the exercises, North Korea on Tuesday stopped answering hotlines between the two Koreas

周二，朝鲜拒接了朝韩之间的热线电话，这显然是为了抗议军演，

that were reconnected only two weeks ago after a more than yearlong silence.

该热线此前曾中断超过一年时间，两周前才重启。

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's sister, Kim Yo Jong, warned that they would have to respond to the drills by strengthening their own military, including their nuclear arsenal.

朝鲜领导人金正恩的妹妹金与正警告称，他们必须通过加强包括核武库在内的军事力量，来应对演习。

In January, North Korea rolled some of its newest military hardware through Pyongyang's Kim Il Sung Square in a nighttime parade.

今年1月，朝鲜在平壤金日成广场举行了夜间阅兵，展示了一些最新的军事装备。

The hardware appeared to include the country's newest and biggest submarine-launched ballistic missile, or SLBM.

这些装备似乎包括该国最新和最大的潜射弹道导弹（简称SLBM）。

The country last test fired an earlier model in 2019.

朝鲜上一次试射早期型号是在2019年。

Shin Jong-Woo is a senior analyst at the Seoul-based Korea Defense and Security Forum think tank.

申宗佑是智库韩国国防与安全论坛的高级分析师。

If you look at the history, the weapons North Korea has tested have first been revealed in military parades.

如果你回顾一下历史，朝鲜试射的武器都会先在阅兵式上展示。

So we believe that North Korea will soon test launch these weapons.

因此，我们认为朝鲜很快就将试射这些武器。

Shin says North Korea has also been working on a new submarine based on an old Soviet design.

申宗佑表示，朝鲜还一直在研究以旧苏联设计为基础的新潜艇。

It could potentially launch nuclear armed missiles at U.S. bases as far away as Guam or even the continental U.S. if the sub can make it farther East into the Pacific.

如果潜艇能驶向远东地区并进入太平洋，它可能会向远至关岛的美军基地甚至美国本土发射核导弹。

He adds that being able to launch missiles from both land and sea would make the North's nuclear arsenal more likely to survive an enemy attack.

他还表示，能够从陆地和海上发射导弹，将使朝鲜的核武库更有可能在敌人的袭击中幸存下来。

Even if we destroy all their ground launchers, North Korea will still have nuclear weapons available.

即使我们摧毁了他们所有的地面发射器，朝鲜仍有核武器可用。

That's why we call SLBMs a retaliation strategy which can be used to deter the U.S. and South Korean militaries.

这就是我们称潜射弹道导弹为报复策略的原因，因为它可以用来威慑美国和韩国军队。

But North Korea doesn't have to test launch any missiles for them to have a political effect, says Paul Choi, principal of StratWays Group, a Seoul-based consultancy and a former South Korean military officer.

但是，首尔咨询公司StratwaysGroup的负责人、前韩国军官崔保罗（音译）表示，朝鲜不用试射任何导弹就能产生政治影响。

North Korea is trying to complicate alliance decision-making at the strategic and political level.

朝鲜正试图在战略和政治层面上使美韩同盟决策复杂化。

I think it's trying to drive wedges between the United States and South Korea, to decouple the alliance.

我认为朝鲜正试图挑拨美国和韩国之间的关系，使美韩同盟脱钩。

Choi says Kim has made it clear he intends to develop tactical nuclear weapons for the battlefield.

崔保罗（音译）表示，金正恩已明确表示，他打算为战场开发战术核武器。

He says Kim could first use them or threaten to use them.

他表示，金正恩可能率先使用这些武器，或威胁要使用这些武器。

But then argue, we'll stop here. Let's end the fight.

但他之后会说，我们到此为止。让我们结束这场战斗。

But if you decide to continue, we still have nuclear weapons that we can launch at Seattle, Washington, or New York.

但如果你决定继续战斗，我们仍有核武器可以向西雅图、华盛顿或纽约发射。

This raises the possibility that the U.S. might choose to sacrifice South Korea in order to save the U.S. homeland.

这增加了美国可能选择牺牲韩国来拯救美国国土的可能性。

And that leaves South Korea no choice, Choi argues, but to keep developing its own weapons and military capabilities independent of the U.S.

崔保罗（音译）认为，这让韩国别无选择，只能独立于美国发展自己的武器和军事能力。

But he denies that this implies a break from the alliance.

但他否认这意味着脱离同盟。

Or that South Korea would act irresponsibly or recklessly in a proactive fashion to attack North Korea and thereby increasing instability between the two Koreas.

或者，韩国会采取不负责任或不计后果的行动，主动攻击朝鲜，从而加剧朝韩之间的不稳定。

In June, Kim Jong Un told his country to prepare for both dialogue and confrontation with the U.S.

今年6月，金正恩曾表示，朝鲜要做好与美国进行对话和对抗的准备。

For now, experts remain divided about whether North Korea will opt to return to the negotiating table or to the missile launcher, whether based on land or at sea.

现在，专家仍在争论朝鲜是会选择回到谈判桌还是继续发射导弹，无论是从陆地发射还是从海上发射。

Anthony Kuhn, NPR News, Seoul.

NPR新闻，安东尼·库恩首尔报道。