美国国家公共电台 NPR 俄美就乌克兰问题举行视频会议（在线收听）

Today, President Biden holds a video call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

今天，拜登总统与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京进行了视频通话。

Russia has built up troops along the border with Ukraine.

俄罗斯已经在与乌克兰的边境沿线加强了军队。

Let's start with the facts on the ground.

让我们从实际情况开始谈。

What is Russia doing on the Ukrainian border?

俄罗斯在乌克兰边境做什么?

Sure. For the past several weeks, U.S. intelligence officials have seen Russian forces - an estimated 100,000 troops or perhaps even more - gathering within striking distance of the Ukrainian border.

好。在过去的几个星期里，美国情报官员发现俄罗斯军队——估计有10万甚至更多的军队——聚集在乌克兰边境的攻击范围内。

And that's prompted concerns Russia's about to stage an all-out invasion.

这引发了人们对俄罗斯将全面入侵的担忧。

Now, Russia insists these are its own troops on its own territory, that it has no aggressive intentions.

现在，俄罗斯坚称这些是在其领土上的自己的军队，没有侵略意图。

In fact, they say it's Ukraine building up its forces.

事实上，他们说这是乌克兰在加强军力。

But there's some recent history here, you know, we can't ignore.

但有一些近期的历史，你知道，我们不能忽视。

Russia has seized territory from Ukraine in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea.

2014年，俄罗斯吞并克里米亚，从乌克兰手中夺取了领土。

It's also started a proxy war by backing separatists in eastern Ukraine in the Donbas later that same year.

同年晚些时候，该国还开始了一场代理人战争，支持乌克兰东部顿巴斯的分裂分子。

And that war has led to over 13,000 deaths.

那场战争导致了13000多人死亡。

But it's important to point out here, you know, even the Biden administration says they simply don't know what Putin's intentions are, just that the threat there is significant.

但这里需要指出的是，你知道，即使是拜登政府也表示他们根本不知道普京的意图是什么，只知道那里遭受了严重的威胁。

One thing the U.S. does know is that it would like to support the government of Ukraine.

美国知道的一件事是，它愿意支持乌克兰政府。

So what can Biden tell Putin in this video call?

那么拜登会在视频通话中和普京说什么呢?

Well, he's warning that the cost of any Russian invasion will be high, and he's reinforcing a message that his secretary of state, Antony Blinken, gave to his Russian counterpart when they met recently, said that Moscow would face high-impact sanctions for any military action.

他警告到，俄罗斯入侵的代价将是巨大的，他强调了国务卿安东尼·布林肯在最近与俄罗斯外长会面时传达的信息，表示莫斯科将因任何军事行动面临高影响力的制裁。

But Biden's team also says the president certainly prefers diplomacy here, and he's hoping to rejuvenate a stalled peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia called the Minsk Accords that, at least in the past, has quelled the fighting in east Ukraine, however imperfectly.

但拜登的团队也表示，总统自然更喜欢此时的外交，他希望恢复乌克兰和俄罗斯之间陷入僵局的和平协议《明斯克协议》，该协议至少在过去平息了乌克兰东部的战争，尽管存在不完美。

OK, so it sounds like the United States would like to avoid a full-scale shooting war.

好吧，听起来美国想要避免一场全面的真枪实弹的战争。

But there's the question of Vladimir Putin.

但还有一个关于弗拉基米尔·普京的问题。

What does Vladimir Putin really want?

弗拉基米尔·普京到底想要什么?

Well, you know, he's upped the stakes beyond peace in the Donbas.

你知道，他在顿巴斯的和平问题上下了更大的赌注。

He's worried about Ukraine joining NATO, and he wants a guarantee from Biden and the U.S. and its allies that that's not going to happen, you know.

他担心乌克兰加入北约，他想要拜登，美国及其盟友保证这不会发生。

And this really is Putin trying to renegotiate NATO's march eastward after the fall of the Soviet Union.

这实际上是普京试图在苏联解体后重新协商北约向东进军的问题。

He's always seen that as fundamentally unfair and certainly a danger to Russia's national security.

他一直认为这从根本上是不公平的，而且肯定会对俄罗斯的国家安全构成威胁。

In fact, he's called NATO's presence in Ukraine a Kremlin red line.

事实上，他将北约在乌克兰驻军称为克里姆林宫的红线。

And on that point, I spoke with Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian analyst with R.Politik who argues, here, Putin isn't bluffing.

在这一点上，我采访了俄罗斯政治咨询公司R.Politik的分析师塔蒂安娜·斯塔诺瓦娅，她认为，在这一点上，普京并没有虚张声势。

And so what Stanovaya here is saying is that Putin believes things have gotten to the point where either the West has to finally take Russia's security concerns seriously or he's ready to go to war.

因此，斯塔诺瓦娅的意思是，普京认为事情已经到了这样的地步，要么西方国家最终必须认真对待俄罗斯的安全担忧，要么他已经准备好发动战争。

OK, so Russia is casting this as a confrontation really with the United States and its allies.

好吧，所以俄罗斯将此描述为与美国及其盟友的对抗。

But the actual threat is to Ukrainians. What do they say?

但真正的威胁是乌克兰人。 他们说了什么?

Well, they argue Ukraine is an independent country, and it's up to them to decide whether they want to join NATO or not.

他们认为乌克兰是一个独立的国家，要不要加入北约由他们自己决定。

It's probably important to point out here that nobody in NATO is actually talking about joining the alliance, at least not in the foreseeable future.

可能有必要指出的是，北约成员国中没有人真的在谈论加入该联盟，至少在可预见的未来不会。

Now, as Biden goes into these talks, he's essentially negotiating on Ukraine's behalf.

现在，当拜登参加这些会谈时，他实质上是在代表乌克兰进行谈判。

And so some are expressing concern that the U.S., given other priorities, might appease Moscow.

因此，一些人担心，考虑到其他优先事项，美国可能会安抚莫斯科。

But fundamentally, you know, certainly Biden, the optics of trying to cave in to Putin are something that would look bad going forward.

但从根本上说，你知道，当然还有拜登，试图向普京屈服的做法(与公众看法有关)在未来看起来很糟糕。

So I think there's a sense among most Ukrainians that he's got their back.

所以我认为大多数乌克兰人都认为他是他们的后盾。