VOA新闻杂志2022 俄罗斯进攻乌克兰的全球影响（在线收听）

Russia's attack on Ukraine has resulted in strong, international actions aimed at punishing Russia. But restrictions on Russia also put pressure on other countries.

俄罗斯进攻乌克兰导致了旨在惩罚俄罗斯的强有力的国际行动。但是对俄罗斯的制裁也给其它国家带来了压力。

Clay Lowery is an official at the Institute of International Finance, a trade group of banks. "We know there are consequences that we cannot predict," he said.

克雷·劳瑞是国际金融研究所的一名官员，这是一家银行贸易组织。他说：“我们知道有一些我们无法预测的后果。”

Most major economies have only limited trade with Russia. For the United States, it is 0.5 percent of total trade. For China, it is around 2.4 percent.

大多数主要经济体与俄罗斯的贸易都很有限。对于美国来说，它占总贸易额的0.5%。对于中国来说，该比例约为2.4%。

For this reason, Adam Slater, lead economist at Oxford Economics predicts only a 0.2 percent drop in the world's GDP, or total economic production, this year. He said the effects on the U.S., China and most developing countries should be limited.

出于这个原因，牛津经济研究院首席经济学家亚当·斯莱特预测，今年全球经济总产值仅会下降0.2%。他说，对美国、中国和大多数发展中国家的影响应该是有限的。

However, Russia is a very important supplier of oil, natural gas, and metals. Higher prices on important materials, known as commodities, could cause problems around the world.

然而，俄罗斯是非常重要的石油、天然气和金属供应国。这些被称为大宗商品的重要材料的价格上涨可能会在全球范围内引发问题。

Economic restrictions

经济限制

The United States and other Western nations have targeted Russia with strong sanctions for a major economy. Some Russian banks have been removed from the SWIFT international payment system. High technology exports to Russia have been limited. And Russia's ability to use its foreign currency reserves, money it uses to pay for exports, has been strongly restricted.

美国和其它西方国家已经对俄罗斯实施了严厉制裁。一些俄罗斯银行已经被从SWIFT国际支付系统中除名。对俄罗斯的高科技出口受到限制。俄罗斯动用其外汇储备的能力，即用于支付出口的资金受到了严格限制。

"The world — or most of it anyway — is laying economic siege to Russia," wrote Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.

高频经济公司首席经济学家卡尔·温伯格写道：“全球，或者说全球大部分地区正在对俄罗斯进行经济围殴。”

As a result, the exchange value of Russia's money, the ruble, dropped to a record low on Monday. Many Russians lined up at banking machines to withdraw money, hurting Russia's banking system.

因此俄罗斯货币卢布的汇率在周一跌至历史新低。许多俄罗斯人在取款机前排队取钱，损害了俄罗斯的银行系统。

The Institute of International Finance in Washington, D.C., expects the Russian economy to shrink by more than 10 percent this year.

华盛顿特区国际金融研究所预测，今年俄罗斯经济将会萎缩10%以上。

Oxford Economics said, based on evidence from earlier wars, the Ukrainian economy could shrink by 50 to 60 percent.

牛津经济研究院表示，根据来自于战争初期的证据，乌克兰经济可能萎缩50%到60%。

Hard times for Europe

欧洲的艰难时期

With its dependence on energy from Russia, Europe's economy is now at great risk.

由于对俄罗斯能源的依赖，欧洲经济现在面临巨大风险。

Natural gas prices increased 20 percent after the war started, but are six times higher than they were at the start of 2021.

战争开始以后，天然气价格上涨了20%，但是这比2021年初高出了6倍。

High gas prices are feeding inflation, and Europeans are paying more for heating. The result is that households have less money to spend, and hopes for an economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic have decreased.

高气价助长了通货膨胀，欧洲人正在为取暖支付更多费用。结果就是家庭可消费资金减少，并且新冠肺炎大流行之后经济复苏的希望也降低了。

Industries that use natural gas, like fertilizer makers, have to cut production. Farmers are paying more to run machinery and buy fertilizer. Germany's economy could be facing a recession by the first three months of 2022.

使用天然气的行业，例如化肥制造商不得不减产。农民为开动机器和购买化肥支付了更多费用。2022年前三个月，德国经济可能会面临衰退。

Finding supplies to meet demand

寻找供应以满足需求

Companies around the world are trying to find enough goods to meet demand as the COVID-19 pandemic eases. This has meant shortages, shipping delays and higher prices.

随着新冠肺炎大流行的缓解，世界各地企业都在努力寻找足够商品来满足需求。这意味着短缺、运输延误以及更高的价格。

Disruptions to Russian and Ukrainian industries could delay any return to normal conditions.

俄罗斯和乌克兰工业的中断可能会延缓恢复正常状态的时间。

Russia and Ukraine together supply 13 percent of the world's titanium, which is used to make airplanes. The two provide 30 percent of the world's palladium, which goes into cars, cellphones and dental fillings, said Mark Zandi. He is chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

马克·詹迪表示，俄罗斯和乌克兰一起供应了全球13%的钛，它被用于制造飞机。这两国供应了全球30%的钯，这被用于汽车、手机和牙科填充物。詹迪是穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家。

Trouble in the neighborhood

邻国的麻烦

The conflict and sanctions will also hurt Russia's migrant workers from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Those workers' families depend on money sent home from Russia known as remittances.

冲突和制裁也将伤害来自乌兹别克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦的俄罗斯外来劳工。这些劳工家庭依赖于从俄罗斯寄回的钱，即所谓的汇款。

In 2020, remittances from Russia to Uzbekistan were $3.9 billion and to Kyrgyzstan $2 billion, says the Russian central bank.

俄罗斯央行表示，2020年，俄罗斯往乌兹别克斯坦的汇款为39亿美元，往吉尔吉斯斯坦的汇款为20亿美元。

Gavin Helf is an expert on Central Asia for the U.S. Institute of Peace. This week, he wrote that the collapse of the labor market in Russia will have a strong effect on Central Asia.

加文·赫尔夫是美国和平研究所的中亚专家。本周他写道，俄罗斯劳动力市场的崩溃将对中亚产生强烈影响。

Rising prices

价格上涨

The Ukraine war takes place as the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks are dealing with rising inflation.

乌克兰战争爆发之际，美联储和其它国家央行正在应对不断上涨的通货膨胀。

In January, U.S. consumer prices rose 7.5 percent from a year earlier, the biggest jump since 1982. In Europe, inflation increased to a record 5.8 percent compared with the same time a year earlier for the 19 countries that use the euro as money.

1月份，美国消费者价格同比上涨了7.5%，这是自1982年以来的最大涨幅。在欧洲，使用欧元作为货币的19个国家的通货膨胀率与去年同期相比上涨了创纪录的5.8%。

Now, prices could go even higher. Zandi noted that Russia and Ukraine produce 12 percent of the world's oil and 17 percent of its natural gas.

现在价格可能会更高。赞迪指出，俄罗斯和乌克兰生产了全球12%的石油和17%的天然气。

To combat inflation, the U.S. central bank, or Fed for short, is expected to raise interest rates it controls when it meets in two weeks. The European Central Bank also is slowly withdrawing its pandemic aid efforts.

为了对抗通胀，预计美联储将在两周后的会议上提高其控制的利率。欧洲央行也在慢慢撤回其对大流行的援助措施。

However, central bankers must weigh the growing risks of inflation against the Ukraine crisis's effects on the world's economies.

然而，各国央行必须权衡不断增长的通胀风险和乌克兰危机对世界经济的影响。