2022年经济学人 俄乌危机引发的粮食恐慌(1)（在线收听）

Finance & economics

财经板块

Agricultural commodities: grain storm

农业商品：粮食风暴

War in Ukraine will cripple global food markets

乌克兰的战争将使全球食品市场瘫痪

In october 1914 the Ottoman Empire, having just joined the first world war, blockaded the Dardanelles Strait, the only route for Russian wheat to travel to Britain and France.

1914年10月，刚刚加入第一次世界大战的奥斯曼帝国封锁了达达尼尔海峡，这是俄罗斯小麦运往英国和法国的唯一通道。

The world had entered the conflict with wheat stocks 12% above the five-year average, but losing over 20% of the global traded supply of the crop overnight set food markets ablaze.

全球小麦库存比5年平均水平高出12%，但一夜之间，全球交易的小麦供应减少了20%，粮食市场一片混乱。

Having risen by a fifth since June 1914, wheat prices in Chicago, the international benchmark, leapt by another 45% over the following quarter.

自1914年6月以来，芝加哥的国际基准小麦价格上涨了五分之一，在接下来的一个季度里又上涨了45%。

Today Russia and Ukraine, respectively the largest and fifth-largest wheat exporters, together account for 29% of international annual sales.

今天，俄罗斯和乌克兰分别是世界上最大和第五大小麦出口国，两国小麦年销售额加在一起占国际小麦年销售额的29%。

And after several poor harvests, frantic buying during the pandemic and supply-chain issues since, global stocks are 31% below the five-year average.

在经历了几次歉收、疫情期间的疯狂抢购以及之后的供应链问题之后，全球小麦库存比五年平均水平低31%。

But this time it is the threat of embargoes from the West that has lit a bonfire—and the flames are higher than even during the Great War.

但这一次，是西方的禁运威胁点燃了导火索——引发的后果甚至比第一次世界大战期间还要严重。

Wheat prices, which were already 49% above their 2017-21 average in mid-February, have risen by another 30% since the invasion of Ukraine started on February 24th. Uncertainty is sky-high: indicators of price volatility compiled by ifpri, a think-tank, are flashing bright red.

2月中旬，小麦的价格已经比2017-21年平均水平高出49%，自2月24日入侵乌克兰以来又上涨了30%。未来的不确定性极高：智库IFPRI编制的价格波动指标亮起了红灯。

Rabobank, a Dutch lender, reckons wheat prices could climb by another third.

荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)估计小麦价格还会再上涨三分之一。

But the damage to global food supply will extend far beyond the grain—and last longer than the war itself. Together Russia and Ukraine export 12% of the calories traded worldwide.

但这对全球粮食供应的破坏会远远超出粮食之外，而且比战争本身持续的时间还要长。俄罗斯和乌克兰出口的卡路里总量占全球总量的12%。

They rank among the top five exporters of many oilseeds and cereals, from barley and corn to sunflowers, consumed by humans and animals.

俄罗斯和乌克兰的油料种子和谷物出口排全球前五，包括大麦、玉米、向日葵，供人类和动物消耗。

Russia alone is the biggest supplier of key ingredients in the making of fertilisers, without which crops falter or lose nutrients.

俄罗斯是化肥关键原料的最大供应国，如果没有这些原料，作物就会歉收或失去营养。

In February, even before the war started, a food-price index compiled by the un Food and Agriculture Organisation had reached an all-time high; the number of people deemed food-insecure, at 800m, was at its highest for a decade.

今年2月，甚至在战争开始之前，联合国粮农组织编制的食品价格指数已达到历史新高；食物得不到保障的人数达到8亿，为10年来的最高水平。

Many more could soon join them. Higher food prices will also stoke inflation, adding to the price pressures generated by dearer energy.

很快还会有更多的人。食品价格上涨也将加剧通胀，增加能源价格上涨带来的价格压力。

The fallout from the war will be felt in three ways: disruption to current grain shipments, low or inaccessible future harvests in Ukraine and Russia, and withered production in other parts of the world.

战争的影响将体现在三个方面：当前的粮食运输中断，乌克兰和俄罗斯未来的产量低下或收成艰难，以及世界其他地区的减产。

Start with shipments. In normal times wheat and barley crops are harvested in the summer and exported in the autumn; by February most ships are gone.

先来说运输。在正常时期，小麦和大麦作物在夏季收获，在秋季出口; 到了二月，大多数船只都离开了。

But these are not normal times: with global stocks low, big importers of Black Sea wheat, chiefly in the Middle East and North Africa, are anxious to secure more supplies. They are not getting them. Ukrainian ports are shut. Some have been bombed.

但现在不是正常时期:随着全球库存的减少，黑海小麦的主要进口国——中东和北非——正急于获得更多的供应。他们得不到供应。乌克兰港口关闭。有些已经被炸毁了。

Inland routes, via the north of Ukraine and onwards through Poland, are too great a diversion to be practical. Vessels trying to pick up grain from Russia have been hit by missiles in the Black Sea. Most cannot get insurance.

经过乌克兰北部和波兰的内陆航线分流太大，运输不太现实。试图从俄罗斯运送粮食的船只在黑海被导弹击中。其中的大多数都无法获得保险。

Alternative sources are unaffordable. Last week Egypt cancelled its second wheat tender in a row after receiving only three offers—at a stomach-churning price—down from 20 a fortnight before.

替代资源过于昂贵。上周，埃及在仅收到3份报价后，连续第二次取消了小麦招标——价格从两周前的20份跌至现在的令人咋舌的水平。

More concerning still, exports of corn, of which Ukraine accounts for nearly 13% of global exports, usually take place through the spring until the early summer.

更令人担忧的是，玉米出口通常在春季至初夏期间进行，乌克兰占全球玉米出口的近13%。

Much of it is normally shipped from the port of Odessa, which is bracing for a Russian assault.

其中大部分通常是从敖德萨港口运来的，而敖德萨港口正面临着俄罗斯的进攻。