2022年经济学人 韩国新总统非常不受欢迎（在线收听）

Asia

亚洲版块

South Korean politics

韩国政治

Dangerous waters

危险的水域

The incoming president has already unpopular

这位即将上任的总统已经不受欢迎

For once, the braised shark fin is not the most controversial thing about Yeong Bin Gwan.

这一次，红烧鱼翅并不是迎宾馆最有争议的事情。

The grand banquet hall in Seoul, famed for the dubious delicacy, is where Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korea's incoming president, will have his inauguration on May 10th.

5月10日，即将上任的韩国总统尹锡悦将在首尔的以奇怪美味著称的盛大宴会厅举行就职典礼。

The opposition Minjoo party complained that the event's 3.3bn-won ($2.6m) budget makes it the most expensive inauguration ever.

反对党共同民主党抱怨称，此次活动33亿韩元(合260万美元)的预算使其成为有史以来最昂贵的就职典礼。

Mr Yoon's people explained that the venue adds only a meagre 500,000 won to the bill.

尹先生的工作人员解释说，会场只给账单增加了微不足道的50万韩元。

Still, a Minjoo spokesman said it was tantamount to declaring South Korea a country where "the president comes first".

不过，共同民主党的一位发言人表示，这相当于宣布韩国是一个“总统至上”的国家。

Petty point-scoring is not new to South Korean politics.

在韩国政治中，小打小闹并不是什么新鲜事。

High office attracts forensic scrutiny.

高级职位吸引了法医的密切关注。

It will soon become routine for Mr Yoon.

这将很快成为尹锡悦的日常行程。

Shark fin or not, he will have a lot on his plate after inauguration day.

不管有没有鱼翅，在就职典礼之后，他都会有很多事情要做。

He must tackle many problems, including astronomical housing costs and the frustrations of young people who are well-educated but underemployed.

他必须解决许多问题，包括天文数字般的住房成本和受过良好教育但未充分就业的年轻人的挫败感。

Mr Yoon has also promised structural reforms in several areas, including welfare, corporate regulation and criminal justice.

尹锡悦还承诺在多个领域进行结构性改革，包括福利、企业监管和刑事司法。

Even the executive branch is to be transformed: it will become an institution, his office has said, that "has autonomy, communicates and takes responsibility".

就连行政部门也将进行改革：他的办公室曾表示，它将成为一个“拥有自主权、沟通和承担责任”的机构。

And that is just at home.

而这仅仅是国内的问题。

Mr Yoon must also deal with a dangerous world.

尹锡悦还必须应对一个危险的世界。

He hopes to draw closer to America, but also wants to avoid antagonising China, his country's largest trading partner.

他希望拉近与美国的距离，但也希望避免激怒最大的贸易伙伴中国。

He has promised a harder line on North Korea, which has been increasingly bellicose in recent months, launching yet another missile on May 4th, just days before the inauguration.

他承诺对朝鲜采取更强硬的立场，朝鲜最近几个月越来越好战，在就职典礼前几天的5月4日又发射了一枚导弹。

Such Herculean ambitions would be challenging for the most experienced and popular of leaders.

对于最有经验和最受欢迎的领导人来说，这样的巨大困难也会是一个挑战。

Mr Yoon is neither.

而尹锡悦两者都不是。

In 2016 his role in the impeachment of Park Geun-hye, a disgraced former president, on corruption charges earned him a promotion to chief prosecutor under Moon Jae-in, her successor.

2016年，他在因腐败指控弹劾名誉扫地的前总统朴槿惠一案中的角色，使他在继任者文在寅的领导下晋升为首席检察官。

In that job Mr Yoon zealously pursued figures in Mr Moon's government, bolstering his own anti-corruption credentials.

在担任这一职务期间，尹锡悦热衷于追随文在寅政府中的人物，增强了自己的反腐资历。

But he entered politics only when he announced his candidacy for president in June last year.

但直到去年6月宣布参选总统时，他才进入政坛。

Mr Yoon has promised a "fair administration that does not allow privileges or foul play".

尹锡悦承诺要建立一个“公平的政府，不允许特权或违规行为”。

The public is sceptical about this claim, given the various allegations that tainted him and his family during the unedifying campaign, not to mention those flung at his opponent.

公众对这一说法持怀疑态度，因为在这场不光彩的竞选活动中，他和他的家人受到了各种各样的指控，更不用说那些针对他的对手的指控了。

Despite his frequent claims to embody the will of the people, he won the election on March 9th with a margin of only 0.7%, the narrowest in the history of modern Korean democracy.

尽管他经常声称自己代表了人民的意愿，但他在3月9日的选举中仅以0.7%的优势获胜，这是现代韩国民主历史上选票差距最小的一次。

He enters office with the highest disapproval rating of any new president.

在历任新总统中，他是最不受欢迎的。

As if his historic unpopularity and long to-do list did not pose enough of a challenge, Mr Yoon also faces a third impediment: his party does not have a majority in the National Assembly.

如果他历史上的不受欢迎和长长的待办事项清单还不足以构成挑战的话，他还面临着第三个障碍：他的政党在国民议会中的席位不占多数。

Barring a mass defection, the Minjoo party, which holds 168 of 300 seats, will control the legislature at least until elections in 2024.

除非发生大规模叛逃，共同民主党(拥有300个席位中的168个)将控制立法机构，至少到2024年选举。

It can block Mr Yoon's bills and try to force through its own.

它可以阻止尹锡悦的法案，并试图强行通过自己的法案。

But the presidential veto is a trump car -- the opposition lacks the numbers to overturn it.

但总统的否决权是一张王牌——反对派缺乏足够的票数来推翻它。

The most likely result will be paralysis.

最有可能的结果将是瘫痪。

Mr Yoon has said he hopes his administration will be able to "overcome the division of ideologies".

尹锡悦曾表示，他希望他的政府能够“克服意识形态的分歧”。

But he will be encircled by sharks.

但他会被“鲨鱼”包围。